Tell me “How this is Not a Great Depression”

[FreakinDJ]

So much of this is the Exact Same Scenario as the Great Depression

Please hear me out before you flame me

2002 – Changes to the Tax and Tariff laws make manufacturing in America an “Endangered Species” Dealers in “Heavy Tools”, (100 ton presses, lathes, milling machines) call it the “2002 the Tool Glut”, as manufactures sell off $Millions in assets in the rush to move operations to China.

1999 – Changes to Banking regulations, and 2002 Pres. Bush proposes to America the “Ownership Society” were by his request Banking regulators ignore “Dangerous” amounts of speculation on the books of Banks and lending institutions such as Fannie Mea and Freddie Mac.

2002 to 2006 – America buys in. Home values sky rocket, falsely inflated by “Lax new rules” in the credit industry and the Administration’s pressure on Federal Regulators to “Over look” dangerous amounts of speculation. China fattened by the new changes in America’s tariff system and the ensuing manufacturing boom, pours $Billions into our financial institutions.

The Crash –

Falsely Inflated Home values begin to plummet. Simply switch the words “Home Values” for “Stock Market” and it is 1929 all over again

Monopolies such as JP Morgan (thanks Ronald Reagan) begin to hold money, stalling major purchases, knowing full well given a short amount of time and the market forces in place, those purchases will cost less as values tumble.

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The 2 basic elements of the Great Depression - "Falsely Inflatted" and "Falling Values"

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

1. When you're living in a box and eating in a soup line, then it will be a Great Depression.

[Uben]

3. Who can afford a box?

Banks aren't making box loans anymore and soup is $8 a gallon!

[FreakinDJ]

4. Yes if the Social Programs are slashed it well happen

already foreclosed families are moving in with Dad and Mom and bringing the kids along with them.

Fortunately Dad and Mom were born a little too close to thye last "Great Depression" to completely buy in

[ThomWV]

14. When there are no jobs, no food, no health care, no money at all and not a chance of getting any.

[EV_Ares]

2. The fact that you had to ask the question.

[FreakinDJ]

5. Do you trust what your Government is telling you

"America is suffering from a Mental Rescission" - Phil Gramm

[EV_Ares]

6. Not Phil Graham.

[FreakinDJ]

8. Well Phil Gramm was a slam dunk for an exercise in the absurd

But do you think the entire Dem senate would be buying in working overtime to spend $700 Billion if we were not on the brink.

This is a vastly unpopular proposal, 1 that could kill a Dem majority and or Presidency for years maybe even decades to come.

A failure in America's Banking system is that serious

[EV_Ares]

10. Not sure what you are saying but we are not in a depression by any means yet. Yes, we are in a

financial crisis. Just like the fact that there is money in the system and there are homes on the market that have sold but the buyers cannot get the loans for the deals to go through because there is no loaning going on anywhere. The pipeline is clogged with "no confidence" right now of making loans.

After a deal is reached and one will be reached, those loans should start flowing again.

[FreakinDJ]

11. I think we agree in principle

I’m saying a duplicate set of conditions exist and you are saying you are confident congress can head off the crisis

I think we both agree we never should have gotten to this crossroads too.

The Republican mantra of De-regulation and Trickle Down Economics defies logic and history has brought us to this point. You have confidence, I don’t want to see America led down this path again

[EV_Ares]

13. Yeah, we do. both sides have responsibility with the republicans owning the largest or almost all

of the blame along with McCain/Gramm but the dems turned their eyes away on some things. Pelosi voting along with the Gramm bill in 99. Washington politics. The best thing that could ever happen is if we could get a third party strong enough to keep these two major parties honest and in check. Kucinich could do that but the game is not set up for a third party to be able to do that unless the people wake up.

[KharmaTrain]

7. We Haven't Hit 25% Unemployment

In many ways, the middle class has been in a depression since the late 70's. In the 80's, many of us were trying to make ends meet and prices continued to rise. The 90's were a respit, but with the booosh regime, the redistribution of wealth has been excelerated. The "consumer" economy is what did it...they got rich, you got a cellphone or wide screen or Cherry Coke. Our suffering is a lot different...and, just like you can't really compare lifestyles of 80 years ago vs. that of today, the same applies to what a "depression" is.

What we're seeing is the collapse of the crony capitalism system. The intermixing of government and Wall Street that led to turning the markets into casinos is what's really collapsing here...and I'm firmly in favor of that. The question then comes to what's next? The government will have to step in to keep people from running on the banks and shutting down the economy altogether. Thus a "bail-out" bill or some sort is needed. Whether now is the time is another question, but there will come a time as this economy continues to implode on foreclosures and a massive credit crunch, we'll start seeing the ripples in the months ahead.

[FreakinDJ]

9. Good analysis on your part

Just 1 question

At what point does the Credit Crisis force the doors of businesses to close and bring your requirement of 25% unemployment to reality?

A key ingredient of a Depression is it becomes economically advantageous to with hold purchases further applying downward pressure on falling prices. I think we are already seeing elements of that in the sale of Washington Mutual.

But that also allows BIGGER conglomerates to control the credit purse strings of the country. Yet another facet of the “Great Depression” was the means Monopolies closed off the flow of money

[KharmaTrain]

12. We're In Stagflation

I think this is just as bad, if not worse, than a depression. It's what we endured during the late 70's...a sharp rise in prices with no job or income growth. In those days you saw the rise of the credit society to create cash (the Raygun defecits) to generate the consumer economy and led to the big run-up in the market and the "boom" of the 80's. Of course if you were only earning $15,000 a year (like I was), good luck in cashing in.

Initially I predicted that first quarter next year would begin a real downslide in retail...many chains trying to hold out through Christmas...but after that, all bets are off. Much of the inventory has been expended for by now, but I see this holiday season as being a very slow one...and with a downturn in sales and demand, so goes manufacturing and importing...it has a domino effect...especially if there's a credit crunch anywhere in that chain.

Remember, we have a far more diversified market today than what we had in 1929. While the banks, real estate and finance sectors have been getting pounded...those with portfolios full of Exxon/Mobil aren't feeling that big of a hit. Many smart investors saw this credit mess coming a while ago and have divested...gone to the sidelines...while this mess plays out. The only thing that messes up that scenario is a total implosion of the banking industry that would drain capital (mattresses will get very lumpy...gold will go to $2,000 a ounce).

I see a restructuring coming...the rebirth of regulation...even the repugnicans now admit this has to occur. But we see it from different perspectives. I'm hoping the mega corporations collapse under their own excess and this open doors for new, smaller companies and industries to prosper (like we saw in the 90's).

The fact we're seeing so many people losing houses and being forced into economic servitutde is bad enough. I hope if there's a bail-out, it addresses this "bottom-up" problem that is the root of the current "crisis".

Cheers...