What will happen to the US economy in 2009?

[CoffeeCat]

Poll question: What will happen to the US economy in 2009?

None of us has an economic crystal ball, but we have opinions and intuition.

Based on your knowledge, experience, intuition or gut feeling...what do you
think will happen to the US economy in 2009?

What is your best guess?

[cliffordu]

1. we.are.fucked.

[liberalmuse]

2. you. said. it.

[CoffeeCat]

4. Why do you think so?

I'd like to know why you think things will worsen in 2009.

[cliffordu]

7. You cannot spend this kind of debt out of the hole.

And....

The drunk orgy of credit card debt is about to crash...we gonna bail out Mastercard, too?

Reduced retirement and no more union wage for auto workers pretty soon.....


And China is tired of carrying our war water, financially speaking.....If they call in their markers, katy bar the door.


I guess we could just print more money, but didn't they try that after WW one in Chermany??

Oh, yeah, and what kind of manufacturing base do we have in this country???

Do we actually MAKE anything anymore??

[Donnachaidh]

23. well, when you see 50 to 60 people on line for ONE temporary job

and that same line of people have an -average- 15 years experience in their field, and they are willing to take a 40% cut in pay to work -- I'd say both those folks AND the rest of the country is well and truly screwed.

And that line of applicants happened in my area over a MONTH ago.

[CoffeeCat]

25. The job market seems bipolar right now...

I hear tons of stories like the one you mentioned. Hundreds of people applying for one job, and willing to take a pay cut.

However, I look at the "Help Wanted" ads in my area, and there are hundreds of jobs.

I'm sure there are some fields that are more affected than others and certain areas that are in worse shape as well.

I agree with you--many indicators and outward signs--don't bode well.

[Donnachaidh]

27. I wonder if those *hundreds of jobs* are bogus ads for temp agencies?

Not trying to blow off your answer, but we had a big flurry of job ads, that all turned out to be worthless. The temp agencies were looking for *fodder* for their files, to use that to try to get customers. It might have worked a bit back in September, but the jobs went totally flat in October and November.

I'm talking blue-collar jobs, of course. We live in a nice complex, and that complex has started evicting people the old fashioned way -- tossing all of their possessions outside of the gate at the front of the complex. I've been here several years and NEVER have I seen anything like this. Drove past a strip mall that always had 100% capacity - it's lost all but one of the small shops, and the Kroger.

This is a relatively wealthy area deep in Newt Gingrich's former constituency. If this is happening here, I can only wonder at how bad it's getting in the poorer areas.

[CoffeeCat]

28. What you're seeing...

...is exactly what I envisioned happening. I have been so afraid of this dire reality, for more than a year. The barren
strip malls, the small business failures, evictions, etc. It's very scary to hear what you describe, but I expected nothing
less.

I am in the Midwest...in Iowa. We were less affected by the housing bubble. Much of the Des Moines area employs people
in banking, insurance and finance. Things haven't unraveled here yet, but I am seeing signs that are not positive. I mainly
see it in the retail sector. Empty parking lots and hardly any customers at Target, Menards, Michael's, Kohl's and the mall--
right before Christmas. Home sales are very slow. Many high-end homes have been on the market for a year - 18 months.

As far as the employment ads. There are a lot of jobs in insurance, IT, education and other white-collar jobs. I'm not
seeing a lot of blue collar jobs.

Ultimately, I think horrible economic conditions will happen throughout the entire country. Certain areas will see downturns first,
and some areas will be affected more than others.

I am in the suburbs, and I think those areas will be impacted significantly because people are mortgaged to the eyeballs and they
are carrying so much debt from credit cards, car loans, boat loans, etc. Everyone wanted to live like millionaires, so they
mortgaged their homes and borrowed that lifestyle at 19 percent interest. When the bottom falls out, it's going to be so ugly
for places that were once sheltered from even seeing poverty.

It must be hard to see people being evicted, and watching as stores close. I'm sure it changes the landscape around you, and that
can be very disconcerting. Thanks for sharing your experiences and what you are seeing. Stories like yours are so important, because
it is REAL, and the MSM is not telling the truth about what is happening.

Take care...

[Greyhound]

31. Donnachaidh is right and there's more.

Employment agencies sell their services to clients with, among other things, an employee pool of so many thousands so they place ads for jobs that are never filled and in many cases never existed to collect resumes.

Another factor is business' cut-throat competition for the limited number of H-1(b) slaves. In order to qualify their applications for these permits, certain criteria have to be met, among them is a documented effort to hire American workers and fail. There are a couple dozen firms selling seminars on how to not find a "qualified" worker (M$ is a particularly egregious offender in this area) and qualify their application.

Combine these factors with rampant ageism and an utter lack of understanding in both management and, especially, HR and you have this bizarre situation.

I don't know how prevalent this is in the so-called blue collar fields, but it is epidemic in the technical fields.

[Doremus]

70. 50-60? You guys got it good.

About 2 years ago here in the Best Location in the Nation I witnessed a line of probably hundreds of job applicants snaking around a newly-built MCDONALD'S.

Things have been rough here for a long time. Knowing that it's only going to get worse is spine-chilling.

[ileus]

3. Much better

[CoffeeCat]

5. Can you tell me why you think things will improve....

...in 2009?

What economic indicators do you think will be better in the coming year?

[Ikonoklast]

6. The Depression took two years to really hit.

We are nowhere near the bottom of this yet. This has just been the end of the first inning.

The spiral will deepen as deflation takes hold.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. The ripples are only starting to spread from the catastrophe.

The politicians aren't scrambling to cover their asses because things are getting better, or likely to.

Deflation, followed by massive inflation.

We spent and borrowed our way into the mess and we're too broke to spend our way out of it. And, the people we depend on (the Chinese) to borrow from just announced that the well isn't bottomless.

[dysfunctional press]

9. i like pie.

why don't i get a say?

[Joe the Liberal]

10. Only time will tell but.....

I'm guessing it will slightly worsen, I don't think it will become a full on depression with 25% unemployment but you never know.

[Donnachaidh]

24. we don't even know what the TRUE unemployment figures are NOW

What with the veritable shell game the government has been playing with figures. Some economists are already saying the TRUE figures were at 12 or 13% last month. Expect those figures to be far worse in January and February.

[depakid]

11. For what it's worth, my guess is that we'll see some improvement in Q4 2009

not that the economy will be out of recession- but it will have bottomed out and there'll be signs of it trending upwards.

A couple of reasons for that, just off the top of my head.

Public policy decisions here and abroad will start to show results;

commodities prices are relatively cheap;

there's a lot of money on the sidelines- where it's relatively safe, but not productive (i.e., it's losing value over time).

[Hawkowl]

33. Deflation

With deflation money doesn't lose value over time, it appreciates. In other words why spend it now, when you can get it cheaper next week, month etc. Why buy real estate with a really low mortgage rate when prices will continue to decline? This is the main reason the economy will worsen next year.

The Fed has put us in a liquidity trap where the rich hoard their money.

[depakid]

61. Buibbles involve short term deflationary trends

after which, prices will stabilize and begin to rise with demand.

It was also nice to note after I wrote the initial post- Krugman agreed with the assessment:

Late next year the economy should begin to stabilize, and I’m fairly optimistic about 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/opinion/22krugman.html?scp=1&sq=krugman%20bubble&st=cse

(it's also ineresting to note in the article that he seems to be obliquely calling for fair trade, which is a shift away from his previous positions),

[Warpy]

12. I expect it to worsen

because the next shoe will drop in the form of all the bad paper that got written in the dying days of the real estate bubble. The drop in consumer spending will also result in a lot of marginally profitable or unprofitable chain stores being closed around the country. Unemployment will skyrocket as retail contracts. Government at all level will have to cut services as revenue dries up.

We still have a chance to get out of this with a steep recession instead of an outright depression if the Obama administration manages to enlist the help of Congress and address the demand side of the consumer equation by putting people back to work ASAP and supporting wages. Only when that happens will consumer demand rise, private employment rise, and government revenue rise.

Unfortunately, I don't see the disastrous dogma of free trade without fair trade being repealed any time soon, too many men have made magnificent careers spouting it.

There is no right way to get through something like this, I'm afraid, and my crystal ball is hazy. I am choosing to ride it out in the stock market. Others have sought to protect their assets by selling stocks and stashing funds in T bills, CDs and other more liquid investments.

I just predict we'll be in a world of suck through next year until all the bad paper goes through the system, something that will happen by mid 2010.

[deaniac21]

13. Obama will fix this quickly.

[SammyWinstonJack]

14. How?

[deaniac21]

34. By being the smartest person in the room. Look at all the things

this man has already accomplished in his life! This one should be small potatoes for him.

[Pastiche423]

64. Dream on

[HughBeaumont]

15. Do rich men that think Friedman economics is the only way to go still run things?

Uh, last I checked, they still do.

So, unless a massive change of heart and some heavy injections of intelligence occurs, this is going to plunge like a train offa cliff. The sons of bitches who run corporate America and this country will keep stupidly laying people off as a reaction to countless others being laid off, which only leads to more layoffs, which only leads to foreclosures galore, businesses closing, zero tax revenue, depressed cities and states, hunger, evictions, crime . . . and a whole lotta rich people still pretty. MuCH. RICH.

Without an eyelash batted or any single one of them being dragged out in the streets and beaten.

It doesn't have to be this way.

I'm sorry, but I'm really not thinking the rich are going to be getting on the Keynesian train anytime soon. It just isn't the way they're wired.

They will not make sacrifices (unless it's their labor). They will not budge unless they're forced to. And right now, no one person or event is forcing them to change their ways. Life as they know it will continue as it always has. I'm not optimistic that people are going to stop taking this bullshit and riot against their corporate masters like they should do.

This isn't the "land of the free". It's the home of the weak.

Maybe if a quarter of the country is out of work will they rise the hell up out of their sofas for once and start taking their rights and wages back.

[tom_paine]

47. "O'er the Land of TV, and the Home of the Virtual Slave."

That is the very line I have been singing since Bushler made it quite clear in 2000, though it must have been true before than, for Bushler did not spring whole, like Athena, from Hitler's Head.

No, it must have been the case for years before Bushler "dotted that particular I", by sweeping in and exposing the fraud of the Land of the Free, for what it had been at least since 1988 and maybe much longer.

And let us not forget, Hugh, that we are part of that, too, and that posting on an anonymous website doesn't exactly cover us in freedom-loving glory, either.

[MrSlayer]

16. It will get worse but will start to come back late next year or early 2010.

We aren't heading for the bread lines no matter what LaRouche says.

[Kahuna]

17. That's what I'm thinking. 2009 will be very difficult. But we will begin to recover at some point

in 2010.

[flvegan]

18. Turnaround in the 3rd quarter.

Rough first quarter, flat second.

[madrchsod]

19. the first quarter of 2010 will show an upward trend

[mikehiggins]

20. cock-eyed optimists, like in the song ;^)

Anyone who voted for anything except total and unprecedented economic disaster on a global scale, including soup lines, riots in the streets and pocket wars flaring up all over the world are, IMHO, cock-eyed optimists like in the song.

About the only good thing I can see coming out of this is, well, nothing.

Luckily, I'm old enough and have enough of a heart condition that dying is a real possibility, especially when medical care becomes a thing of the past for everyone except Bill Gates. Admitedly, that is not necessarily a good thing but you have to die sometime, right?

Sorry about the mess, kids.

[blue_onyx]

21. The economic will significantly worsen in 2009

It's already close to depression levels in Michigan. I recently read an article that mentioned how "Michigan tends to slip into recession before the rest of the country but also emerges earlier." If this tendency holds up, I'm pretty sure we're nowhere near an economic turnaround.

[chknltl]

22. Get better slightly in '09 and better yet in 2010

You pose an interesting question TwoSparkles. Barring a climatological or geologic catastrophy here is my prediction. It is one of hope:

Housing sales in 1st quarter will drop slightly, flatten out in 2nd qtr., rise a little in 3rd then slow down but still show a slight rise in 4th qtr. Overall housing sales will be slightly up for calender year '09 over '08. (Time to buy a home if you can will be spring of '09!)

Consumer spending will drop slightly in 1st qtr. Rise slightly in second qtr. rise slightly again in third qtr., and continue with that rise trend through the 4th qtr. Overall consumer spending will be up noticeably in calender year '09 over '08 leading to increased consumer confidence by years end.
(Merry Xmas America 2009!)

Unemployment will rise through the first qtr., stabilize early on in the second qtr. and show a steady but slow decrease throughout the third and 4th qtr.s. This economic indicator will help fuel consumer confidence by years end which will be best seen in consumer spending.

2010 will be when the worldwide economy shows a marked turnaround. Worldwide, '08 will be the bottoming out and '09 will be seen as the slow recovery. America will partake in this recovery as opposed to leading it as many here in America might think or want to take credit for.

Why do I say this? This is just my hunch on how things could/should play out:
I think America will see a dramatic slowing in military spending during the the first 2 years of the Obama Presidency. Money earmarked to our military will be redirected to education, government jobs and social programs. Much of this decrease in military spending will be due to a dramatic downsizing of our presence throughout the Middle East. I believe that as our presence as an antagonist in the Middle East decreases, a jittery world will be able to focus on more pressing issues-global warming; overpopulation; a shrinking of natural resources, and etc.

I feel that the Bush presidency and his policies are at the center of the worldwide economic catastrophe that we witness now. As he and his ilk drug America's economy to her knees, most of the world's economy's were far too tied to ours to not follow along. I suspect that nations worldwide will seek to not repeat that particular mistake but I doubt that America will be cast adrift either.

Call it hope if you want but barring a resurgence in terrorism, (deliberate and preplanned Neo-con influenced terrorism that is! :tinfoilhat:), and if Obama is able to downsize dramatically our presence in the Middle East, I believe this is how things will play out for America and for the world's economies through '09 and 2010.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

29. I have no idea or even a strong hunch about what is going to happen, but...

I like your scenario. It seems to contain both realism and optimism, and that suits me just fine.

[Jackpine Radical]

26. I voted Kaboom.

[chknltl]

30. KnR and why I KnRed this:

This thread, this question posted by TwoSparkles needs many more predictions IMO. I think it will be worth a revisit in a year or so to see who is closer to the mark.

The nightmare that bush and his gang led us through turned out to be far worse than any I could have imagined before he first stole the Presidency, what do you suppose America would look like in a year from now had Senator mCcain won?

I can only imagine in my darkest nightmares how bad things would be in a year had Senator mCcain won instead of Senator Obama. Would we in a year be wasting trillions on another fiasco war in the Middle East?

Would there have been further tax cuts for the wealthiest corporatists who would then have cheerfully transfered what's left of America's wealth offshore?

Would America's middle class be destroyed utterly?

Would a President mCcain and his corporatist allies have finished off our Constitution?

Would the rest of the world have followed us into a depression far worse than that one we call the Great Depression?

Would the combined might of the world's economies or worse their militaries been turned against America in retribution for the chaos we would have caused when mCcain dropped a nuke on Tehran?

I responded earlier in this thread with an optimistic response. The fact that America chose NOT to go down the road the neo-nazi corporatists would have us go down, the fact that We The People have rejected the notions of reganomics, has led me to believe that there is indeed hope for this country and hope for this world as well.

Yes We Can

[Greyhound]

32. The fun's just beginning.

We still have the credit card debacle coming, and it will be followed by the collapse of the extra-national derivatives market, which will cripple international trade, and on and on...

We've painted ourselves into quite a corner. There is simply nothing left to drive a recovery.

Of course there are many alternatives we could institute to avoid the worst of it, but they all entail pain for the parasites and I see no indications that anyone in a position to do it is willing to even talk about them.

[GliderGuider]

35. We'll see the first step of the crash towards the end of the first quarter 2009

Here's how I see the next year or two unfolding:

• Bad Christmas sales will let everyone know that consumers have lost confidence. That will in turn create a complete loss of consumer confidence and spending will dry up.
  
• Unemployment will ramp up, with job losses reaching 1 million per month by June. This will overwhelm Obama's attempts at job creation.
  
• Globally, the banks have completely lost confidence in the system. As a result, inter-bank lending is frozen and will stay frozen.
  
• The rate of bank failures will spike, probably to a dozen a month by June.
  
• International commerce will freeze up due to the inability of shippers to get letters of credit.
  
• Consumer credit will dry up, with credit lines being slashed towards the end of the first quarter as people default on their Christmas debts.
  
• Housing prices will fall another 25% during 2009.
  
• The rate of foreclosures will triple in the second half of the year as pay-option ARMs reset on people who have had to take pay cuts.
  
• There will probably be a major mark-to-market event in the international derivatives market in late 2009 or early 2010 that will drain another $10 to $50 trillion out of the global economy.
  
• An attempted recovery in late 2010 or early 2011 will be derailed by a spike in oil prices back to above $150/bbl. This will be due to supply constraints brought on by a combination of Peak Oil, infrastructure rust-out and a lack of new drilling brought on by the crisis in the capital markets.
  
• Deflation will be the order of the day until the attempted recovery. When the nascent recovery hits the wall due to oil prices, there will be a spike into hyperinflation in many countries including the USA

Because of the oil situation, there is no guarantee that we will be able to recover fully from this depression. I've written more about why I think this in the article The New Normal.

Folks, the shit really has hit the fan.

[Warpy]

37. I don't know if we're quite into SHTF territory yet

but while monetarist, supply side solutions are being pursued to the exclusion of everything else, that is exactly where we are headed.

My crystal ball isn't nearly as clear as yours is, but I do see next year as being an extremely challenging one for all of us as the economy continues to stumble as the second shoe of bad mortgage paper drops.

We will definitely see a lot less retail and a lot less stock in retail that remains. We will probably see a lot more banks either merge or fail, although I doubt on the scale you suggest. Unemployment will exceed the horrors of the early 70s. States will be in trouble and services will be cut.

Only addressing the demand side of the economic equation will bring this economy back, at all. After all, it's failing because of the consumer's inability to hold up his end of the bargain: shop til he drops and pay the bills on time. He's totally tapped out and those days are over until there is a sea change in the economy.

The scary part of all this is that what you've outlined is now possible, if it isn't yet probable. Unless Reagan's legacy is buried with him, it will likely all happen.

[GliderGuider]

38. Who is on Obama's economics team? Nuff said. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

49. Exactly. What if there is a bank holiday?

If banks everywhere take an extended holiday, I assume people can still use debit cards to get out some cash from ATM and buy things?

But what about automatic electronic deposits, automatic electronic withdrawals, electronic bill paying? Do you foresee the stoppage of electronic banking during this bank holiday? Or maybe a stoppage to electronic banking, forever? Cash only, for everything? Thanks.

[GliderGuider]

53. I think electronic banking will continue to be available, but with severe transaction limits.

Interruptions in debit card and credit card service will become more frequent, banks will institute transaction limits (probably after they slash credit card and LOC limits). Transaction fees will increase, um, "substantially" and overdraft protections will vanish. There will be an increase in thefts of ATM machines that will cause banks to suspend service in some areas. We'll see the first widespread signs of all this in the second quarter of 2009.

This is the 10,000 foot view from my glider -- product may not be exactly as shown, some restrictions may apply, void where prohibited, limit 0 per customer.

[DemReadingDU]

55. Transactions - my bank has always had $200 ATM limit, but

But after the crash, when more banks become insolvent,
and assuming we still have income and bills...

will we be able to pay the bills electronically?
Will our paychecks/pension checks/social security checks be deposited electronically?

[mikita]

40. thanks GG ....can't disagree on any point....

sometimes I wish I were younger so I'd have more energy to face what's coming,

and other times, I wish I were already gone.....

At least I have no kids, figured THAT much out in the late 60's.

[GliderGuider]

54. I hear you. I'm 58, and my skills are software design, photography and project management

That's not exactly a survivable skill-set under these circumstances. I'm well past my physical prime, out of shape, and I'm really un-handy with tools. To top it all off, I have asthma that needs daily medication.

On the other hand, I've come to terms with my mortality, and as a chaos junkie I consider myself totally blessed to be living at this moment in history. How many people get a front row seat for the collapse of their civilization -- let alone getting to watch it unfold live on TV and the intertubes?

[DemReadingDU]

56. It's going to be different

There is plenty to read to do some preparations, probably not enough and know exactly what we will be living in 5-10 years.

I'm just hoping electricity stays around long enough for us to be able to watch history unfold on TV and on the Internets for a few more years, or secure an alternate means of light and heat.

[ProfessorGAC]

36. Slightly Worsen

Since it's pretty bad now, it will go from bad to worse, but i don't see anything in the data to suggest catastrophe.

It will be very tough sledding and there will be significant layoffs and small business closings. (Both really bad things, of course.)

But, as bad as things are, there are structural underpinnings that are still reasonably sound. It will prevent the rough road from bouncing us into the ditch, upside down.

IOW, a very rough ride but not a fatal crash.
GAC

[JackRiddler]

46. Only asteroids and supervolcanoes qualify as catastrophe.

In the hundred thousand years of our kind, this is big only as far as the collapse of a civilization goes. It's special for being the first global and nuclear-age scenario of its kind, involving every record in terms of the actors and complexities involved, and of course it will create a new record in real-time coverage (too much) for future historians to scan. Because there will be future historians, no question, barring catastrophe. I'll go that far in my optimism.

[GreenTea]

39. Thanks to Bush & republicans who have put this country in such incredible debt, Iraq sucking up 10

billion dollar a month, each & every month as the corporations just pig out sucking in those billion of our tax dollars in Iraq - war for profit...republicans pushed hard for deregulation, allowing the banking thieves to do as they pleased with no oversight by government...Bush will leave office with a 11 trillion dollar national debt, imports dominate of markets and jobs left and our exports are the worst ever in the history of the country....and the republicans answer is to blame workers the same workers who taxes pay for all Bush & the republican fuck ups...they want to stomp out unions in favor of management, CEOs Vice presidents...the workers only voice, strength in numbers to fight for better pay, health care, sick pay and the republicans & Bush have done all they can to destroy unions (the peoples only voice) and some idiot workers still go along with the idea of busting unions...fucking complete assholes!

[lostnotforgotten]

41. Kick

eom

[lumberjack_jeff]

42. 2009 will be the "bad" that leads to 2010's "worse".

Banks foundations are built from perhaps $70 trillion of monopoly money. No bank will admit to how much pretend money is in their vault, but they're pretty sure that the bank across the street is in about the same sorry shape. The bailout only postponed this final accounting.

Evidence? We gave away $700b in bailouts and the bankers didn't even make a cursory attempt to lend it, or to do anything which might improve their banks situation. They paid themselves first because $700b doesn't come close to fixing the problem. They have already made their airline reservations.

[CoffeeCat]

43. In your opinion, will we see massive...

...bank failures in the future, as a result of this crisis?

It seems very bizarre to me, that we gave these banks $700 billion dollars
a few months ago---and banks have restricted the amount of loans they are
giving out. That money was supposed to be used for "unfreezing credit lines"
and just the opposite has happened.

I'm seeing major red flags here,and I'm wondering what is really happening with
all of that money.

The justification given by Paulsen for that massive bailout---has not happened.

If my daughter came to me and asked to borrow $100 to purchase a Hannah Montana
guitar, and two months later, she didn't own the guitar--I'd sure as hell be asking
what happened to the $100.

Why isn't America demanding to know what is going on?

It makes me nervous, because we continue to have grave problems in the banking
industry (credit freezes, loans difficult to qualify for), but we have the
powerbrokers who still have the bailout money.

Am I the only one feeling as if a lot of really powerful people are about to
make off for distant lands with a whole lot of cash, while leaving the minions
behind to wallow in a huge economic catastrophe for years?

[lumberjack_jeff]

44. Yes, I do.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/12/debt-rattle-december-21-2008-last-of.html

[DemReadingDU]

52. Monday's Rattle was very insightfull too

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/12/debt-rattle-december-22-2008-but-now.html

[DemReadingDU]

51. Cash or maybe gold

I don't see wealthy and powerful people traveling with plastic, rather large trunks filled with cash, coins and gold.

[CoffeeCat]

57. I imagine they won't be using plastic...

...because they know that bubble will soon implode.

Credit-card companies are just starting to engage in the same behavior that the banks
are currently engaging in now. They're freezing out customers and stopping the flow of
money.

There have been a few snippets about credit-card companies reducing lines of credit or
cutting off customers entirely. According to the fine print in most credit-card applications
these companies can do this, and they can also demand payment in full at 40 percent interest (or
whatever rate they feel like charging).

No doubt, the credit-card bubble will be the next to burst--as the retail sector swirls
down the drain.

That's probably why they made off with such an enormous amount of cash. They know damn
well plastic will be worthless soon.

[Incitatus]

45. I know for a fact

that I have no idea what will happen.

[TWiley]

48. I really believe the Republicans are delibertly poisoning the well

They have bankrupted our presidency even before it started. This is not the first time either. It has become common for out-going Republican Governors to leave an absolute financial disaster for the next Governor to struggle with. They then blame the new one for what they did. Fart, then get off the elevator just in time. I really believe the plan was to have this "crisis" develop AFTER bush left office. Oops. Now that it has, they want to make it as bad as possible.

Look at Michigan, Repuke Engler nearly destroyed the state before Gov Granholm took over. She has hell to pay ever since from the republican bastards who constantly blame her for their own fiscal irresponsibility.

Expect even more bold lies from the Repukes over the next 4 years. We really do need to stick together and hold their feet to the fire. Bush wants a heroic type legacy, and will purge anything that documents the truth.

[DemReadingDU]

50. I think there will be an epic crash

Something will occur that everyone will talk about for centuries...

Stock Market Crash in 1929
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

Panic of 1873
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

South Sea Bubble in 1720
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Bubble

Tulip mania in 1637
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania


Edit: I'm not exactly sure what will instigate this crash, maybe some banks no longer able to stay in the 'game', maybe an uprising/revolt in a major country. Something. Something of worldwide epic proportion.

[Two Americas]

58. of course there will be a "catastrophic crash"

It has been unfolding for a while. For those with a degree of ease and privilege, who have been able to ignore the growing suffering all around them and rationalize it all away with pleasant sounding and reassuring "progressive" platitudes and false hopes, this may be shocking news. There is a danger now that they, too, may be suffering soon. But for most of the people here and in the world, "catastrophic crash" is an undeniable reality already.

Now the privileged few are also at risk. Will they take up common cause with the suffering and persecuted and abused, or will they work to re-establish privilege and security for themselves at the expense of those left out and left behind?

There is an effort going on here to paint homeless folks, poor folks, GLBTQ folks, organized Labor folks as in the way, as interfering with some glorious "progressive" program. What sort of "progressive" agenda would ask that of us? "Don't get me wrong, I support (GLBTQ people, organized Labor, the homeless, the poor) BUT...." What does that word "but" signify?

The religious right says "don't get us wrong, we don't hate the sinner, we hate the sin. We love the sinner." The sinners are interfering with God's plan, they claim. Too many "progressives" are saying that GLBTQ people - or the poor, or the homeless or organized Labor - are interfering with the progressive plan. It is the same position, and we see the same arguments used against the poor, the homeless and the workers as we do used against GLBTQ people in the current controversy. What the conservatives among us hope is that we do not find common cause over this.

"Don't get me wrong I support you" - and when pressed that becomes "how DARE you claim that I don't support you?" is then followed with "but could you please go stand over there in your little corner and stop interfering and annoying us, and let the 'smart' people, the important people, take care of everything? You are only hurting 'your cause.'"

For a small but very vocal and domineering minority here, the "progressive" cause is an effort to establish and solidify the control over the political discussion by a new aristocracy - better than the old aristocracy! - and that is advanced by systematically isolating and marginalizing people by sticking them into groups, and then attacking the entire group, all the time claiming that the people in those groups are interfering with the "progressive" agenda and therefore "hurting us." They are inadvertently telling the truth there. The people are in the way of the new aristocracy and must be beaten down and silenced. By dividing the people into groups, they can be conquered and eliminated from the discussion. So we are to see the struggle for justice and equality as merely "their cause" and "what they want."

At issue here, what we do not know yet, is not whether or not we are seeing a "catastrophic crash." The question is which side will people choose now? The side of the new aristocracy, or the side of the suffering people?

[DemReadingDU]

60. In a couple years, their will be 2 groups, or classes of people

Probably 99% of us will be the poor, suffering downtrodden class.
The remaining 1% will be the uber wealthy.
I sincerely don't think any of us in the 99% will have any choice at all to choose which side.

Edit: but we can choose how we deal with the catastrophe.

[Two Americas]

69. 10% right now

There is about 10% of the people still living what could be called "middle class" lives, half of them "liberal" and half "conservative," but all profoundly conservative in some fundamental ways, especially when it comes to economics and authoritarianism.

[leftstreet]

66. ^^K&R for this post^^

:thumbsup:

[maryf]

59. Total catastrophe...

So what are those who voted for this willing and able to do??

[DemReadingDU]

63. I don't think anyone voted for catastrophe

This credit bubble has been inflating for years, and it is bursting. Credit will no longer be available to buy things. Everyone will need to help each other in whatever manner they can.

Chris Martenson has developed an excellent series of 20 video chapters about the economy, how we got to where we are now, how money is created, bubbles, etc. It is not necessary to watch all the videos in one day, I watch some every day for 3 days. Very good!


The Crash Course, What is it?
The Crash Course seeks to provide you with a baseline understanding of the economy so that you can better appreciate the risks that we all face. This is a series of 20 video chapters, each video is between 3 and 18 minutes in length, meaning that all 20 chapters should take about 3 hours, but they need not be watched all at the same time.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse


About Chris Martenson, PhD.
Executive summary: Father of three young children; author; obsessive financial observer; trained as a scientist; experienced in business; has made profound changes in his lifestyle because of what he sees coming.
In his bio, Martenson goes into detail how he arrived at his conclusions and opinions, and why he's dedicated to communicating them via this excellent series of videos and additional articles.
Please click the link to read the rest of his bio...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/about


P.S.
Martenson has developed a great website that is full of additional helpful information. Browse thru the public resources page...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/resource-listings

There is some great information in the Essential Articles section. Everything is organized by subject category.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/EssentialArticles


home page link
http://www.chrismartenson.com /

[maryf]

67. I was referring to the choice that said:

The economy will drastically worsen in 2009, resulting in a very catastrophic crash of unprecedented proportions (possibly worse than Depression-like circumstances). I would call that Total Catastophe, you, maybe not...

[DemReadingDU]

68. Oh, silly me

My brain was thinking November election. lol


As per this poll, I also chose the same option as you did.
Catastrophic times are coming :(

[maryf]

71. Thanks, I'm not alone!!

and we have to join together...

[Mike 03]

62. My only complaint about this thread is that it's too old for me to rec.

What a great question.

I voted that the economy will significantly worsen in 2009. My answer was based on these factors:

1. The thirteen trillion dollars in derivatives have not been dealt with yet.
2. Commercial real estate catastrophe
3. Credit card write-offs
4. Hundreds of retail store bankruptcies, beginning in late January 2009
5. A double digit unemployment rate by the second quarter of 2009
6. More Maloff-type scandals that trigger a chain reaction of insolvencies
7. The five or ten things I'm forgetting to list right now

[chknltl]

65. Kicked nt