REALITY CHECK: 40% identify as Conservative, 36% as Moderate, 20% as Liberal

[emulatorloo]

This is from Gallup pollling, OCT 26, 2009. I came across this about 3 or 4 days ago.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/Conservatives-Maintain-Edge-Top-Ideological-Group.aspx

October 26, 2009
Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group

Compared with 2008, more Americans “conservative” in general, and on issues
by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.

Independents Inch to the Right

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.

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More at link, encluding graphs of since 1992.

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I am not posting this in response to any DU thread.

I am also aware that some may self-identify as "conservative" and actually be something else when questioned specifically about their views. Same with "moderates" and "conservatives".

And I certainly think it is a great idea to talk to people and try to convert them to a more liberal/progressive viewpoint if at all possible.

But it seems to me that we sometimes forget that DU is in somewhat of a bubble and is not really reflective of "real world" Democrats. If you are politically passionate, there is a tendency to think everybody in the real world thinks exactly as you do. That is not necessarily the case, and we can see the worst of that sort of thing over at freerepublic.

I am not making any huge claims or making any prescriptive suggestions.

Just seems worth keeping in mind, maybe good to have a grasp on reality now and again.

ON EDIT; Spelling, as always, I am sure I missed some too.

[BzaDem]

1. You can't win with some people. They will claim that "corporatist Gallup" cooked the poll.

Because after all, Gallup is indeed a corporation. Which of course implies that they are making things up. :sarcasm:

[emulatorloo]

5. I do believe Gallup swings a little to the right. But only a little. And therefore pretty accurate

The polling is usually pretty consistent with others (except that wacky Rasmussen stuff, which is worthless unless you are a wingnut and like hearing what they say)

[FarLeftFist]

13. I question all polls in general...

I wasn't polled, neither was anyone I know. Was anyone on here polled? For all we know those polls could have been taken in the red state of Kentucky. Was there even over 10,000 people polled? How is there polling conducted?

[redqueen]

21. I do too but look at the facts.

Most Americans are fine with the death penalty.

Most Americans are fine with unnecessary wars (until they are hurting for money... selfish but there it is).

Most Americans have little problem with our shameful safety net.

[BzaDem]

26. Honestly, this is very similar to people who deny evolution because it is counter-intuitive to them.

Polling is a science. It is an accepted science. It is a proven science. Election after election after election, the results bear out poll accuracy far more often than they don't (within well defined margins of error).

Just because you don't understand polling doesn't mean it doesn't have sound scientific basis. Polls with fewer than 1000 people have been proven accurate (compared to actual results) countless times. They use weighting according to known demographics to correct for the large error that would occur had they not weighted.

Bashing polling because "you weren't polled" or "fewer than 10,000 people were polled" is just like bashing evolution because you haven't seen it right before your eyes. Bashing science is bashing science.

[redqueen]

32. I don't think it's that cut and dry.

I think it's good to be critical of statistical data in general... but you are right that a clear and obvious trend is reliable.

[BzaDem]

33. I agree with that.

I'm mainly disagreeing with people who don't believe in the general idea of taking a sample and making inferences about the general population with data from the sample.

[redqueen]

37. Yep...

That's just sloppy thinking. (Reminds me of the 'government is bad and out to get you' types.)

[Jamastiene]

40. The poster is right about Kentucky though.

It all depends on who is doing the polling and what their agenda is...and there usually is an agenda.

[FarLeftFist]

43. Ummm, I wasn't bashing polling....

I was just asking questions. I have also seen extremely distorted polls. I agree polling is somewhat of an accepted science, but is it an accepted math. I could probably find you poll numbers that say Obama's approval rating is 60%, but I can also find you polls where it may be 47%. And I was asking about the 10,000 people b/c I've seen polls stating it's a national survey and fewer than 800 people were polled. I take the media very lightly.

[treestar]

53. They make an effort to poll a sample that will reflect the population

There is no way they would take the sample from one state.

[Winterblues]

2. Reality Check....Democrats won HUGE Mandates in 2006 and 2008

:shrug: The mood of the country is noticably better this Holiday season than the last few have been.

[emulatorloo]

9. Moderates and "sane" conservatives helped do that. They need to be cultivated.

[Sebastian Doyle]

20. Huh?

I'd say the mood of this country is a lot worse. And that was even before that steaming load of bullshit that got dumped on us Tuesday night.

And that's not from the Democratic wins, but rather the fact that they haven't changed for the better by much. Hell, getting Congress back has been in name only, so far and that was fucking three years ago.

[firehorse]

3. The framing of the poll is questionable...

They need a slot for right wing teabagger anarchists and the numbers in the conservative slot would change.

[emulatorloo]

16. Yes I think teabaggers are about 10 to 15% of the population at best

I sort of come up with that number based on intuitively reading other polls. Like who support palin for pres, who think obama is not an american citizen, etc.

[harun]

52. No way, try < 3%.

[mrcheerful]

4. The problem is after 30 years of con labeling liberals as anti-american

a lot of people refuse to claim to be liberal, they call themselves moderates or conservatives.

[get the red out]

11. Absolutely true

I know people who are very liberal on most issues but when asked they would rather be called anything BUT a LIBERAL. The very word has been demonized past reliable use in polling like this.

[HereSince1628]

12. True and they may call themselves progressives.

I think resistance to acknowledging progressives is largely due to DLC commitment to the investment they've made in their "branding."

[FarLeftFist]

6. Didn't I also read somewhere....

That only 22% of the country identifies as republican. Could it be that of that 22%, 40% consider themselves conservative. Basically, less than half of republicans consider themselves conservatives Same with Dems, I think the article said 38% consider themselves Dems. 20% of those Dems consider themselves Liberals.

[BeFree]

7. Yeah, we know

And sooner or later, as it always does, the rest of the world will get smart and see that liberals were nearly always right. In 20 years, DUers will still be leading us to a better world.

Idea: We should make all the good ol' liberals like Lincoln, FDR, TR, the Kennedys, MLK, et al, into honorary DUers. They led us to where we are today, we owe them a great debt.

[JVS]

8. REALITY CHECK: Conservative policies are destroying the country

[emulatorloo]

23. I missed the part where I advocated for Conservative policies or being happy with the status quo

[ThomThom]

48. Republican policies are destroying this country.

I don't think this is conservative at all. A conservative would not allow these new financial instruments, conservative would be against nation building or interventionism.

[Echo In Light]

10. Reality Check: if asked to explain, & show their work, so to say, most Americans would reveal...

... that they're very un and dis-informed as to the actual meanings of the concepts they assimilate to, abide, and think they believe in.

[emulatorloo]

17. I acknowledge that in my original post.

[athenasatanjesus]

14. The media is basically libertarian so most people are basically libertarian

[emulatorloo]

31. The cable media is motivated by money. Ad dollars mean profits, So they make sensational

programming to get more money. That is why everything is about "Controversy" and "Scandal"

[FarLeftFist]

15. REALITY CHECK: We just had 8 yrs of the "conservative revolution"

Look how that ended.

[emulatorloo]

19. I missed the part where I advocated for more of the Bush years.

[FarLeftFist]

44. That was more of a shot at conservatives who might be reading this as good news...

I doubt very many people here voted for Bush even once, let alone twice. I sure as hell didn't.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

18. I wonder how many would have chosen "None of above"?

Pigeon holes can be mighty cramped.

[emulatorloo]

24. Probably a very small percentage on the left and the right.

This is the problem with the teabaggers. They represent maybe 10 to 15% of the population, but in their fervor they beleive that they are a majority.

[kentuck]

22. How many of those "moderates" are actually "liberals"?

After 30 years of destroying the "liberal" label, 20% is actually very good. Even a lot of people here call themselves "progressives" because they understand the stigma that was put on the "liberal" name. If the poll had asked about whether you are "Republican, moderate, or progressive", I bet the numbers would have been different?

[emulatorloo]

27. That's one of the groups we need to work with -- that's why I don't want to live in a bubble

We have to be able to communicate with that group and bring them around.

[Echo In Light]

30. Yes, solid idea, and important for a movement - BUT...

When people become intolerant and disdainful of the notion of 'liberal,' there are many deeply seated cultural factors at work in the public mind that one is coming up against, and I would say it's only worth extending a hand for so long after one realizes the attempt is futile, or harmful.

[emulatorloo]

36. Some people aren't reachable. We just have to face that fact. The "True Believers"

are so far gone, They only hear what they want to hear, they surround themselves with Rush and Malkin and only those viewpoints.

But I think that is only a tiny part of the population. You are right though, they are irrational and have to be written off.

[Marr]

25. Labels like "conservative" and "liberal" mean little in a poll like this.

They're just logos. One has been severely beaten up in popular media for decades, the other enshrined.

Ask people if they want universal healthcare. Ask them if they would like to see something like a federal jobs program. Ask them if they'd like to see taxes raised on the uber wealthy and lowered on themselves.

Ask those questions and get ready to accept the fact that this country isn't actually "conservative" at all.

I know you mentioned that in your OP, but it's not a "yeah, but" kind of point-- it *is* the point. Liberal ideas sell here, and big. Our politicians refuse to sell them, because they don't want to advance those ideas. The average Republican voter is probably more liberal than the average Senate Democrat.

[emulatorloo]

28. I acknowledge that in my original post. We need to be able to talk to those people

And said that we need to be able to talk to those people and move them to a more liberal viewpoint.

But take the example of the teabaggers - they are so fervent, they are unable to talk to anyone but themselves. They are caught up in a hall of mirrors basically. I am not saying we are like that, but we run the risk of that if we get more "isolated bubbleish" than we are now.

[Marr]

35. I know-- I'm saying the labels don't matter.

Liberal ideas would sell if any politician chose to sell them. They don't. The problem isn't the populace, it's our political elite and our media. They're insulated and convinced that they can safely ignore you.

What good does it do to convert your neighbor into supporting Democratic politicians if those politicians reject liberal policies out of hand? I don't think it matter what people call themselves. I've heard plenty of self-described conservatives say they were voting for a non-Republican because he/she had sold them on some bit of policy that served their interests.

The logos are easily abandoned, that's all I'm saying. Our own politicians refuse to make the case that would convince many self-described "conservatives" to do so.

[emulatorloo]

39. I often say we need to get better Democrats into office. To me that is really

key, especially as I have watched this healthcare thing unfold.

I am from Iowa, so I have Grassley and Harkin as my Senators. It would be difficult to find a better Dem than Harkin, he is top notch. If we had more Harkins we would be in very good shape. He is able to articulate liberal policies in a way that makes them seem very common sense.

(Why do we have Grassley? Mostly because he has been a strong advocate for medicare. I am going to work my ass off this year to get rid of him in 2010)

[Kansas Wyatt]

29. Especially when you ask people exactly what policies they do want.

Turns out that people are a lot more liberal and a lot less conservative than they think or admit.

[emulatorloo]

34. True - but "self-identify" is the key concept. We need to be able to communicate

with those people and help them see they are more liberal than they think.

If we get too "bubble-ish" we will get caught up in the echo-chamber and not be able to talk to anybody but ourselves. This is what concerns me sometimes.

[WI_DEM]

38. And this isn't only Gallup either. The fact is that most people are moderate/conservative

and that liberal is a distant third. We just think that liberals outnumber everybody else because most of our friends and people we associate with are liberal. That is why so many dino's win in states like Nebraska, Arkansas, etc because a liberal couldn't win. Well, the exception is CT. Of course the dem nominee won the primary, but still 30% of Dems voted for Lieberman over Lamont in the general election.

[Ichingcarpenter]

41. 40% are Conservatards in the US

What a surprise.....NOT

[dbonds]

42. The term liberal got so much bad press over the last 30 years many people shun it.

If you ask about individual policies that liberals believe in most people will be for them, but the same people won't label themselves as liberal.

Similar with conservative labels, some people are monetarily conservative and wear the label from that (which to them means balanced budget), but very few are socially conservative.


If you used the more realistic labels of Progressive for liberal, and Regressive for conservative you will have a different poll outcome.

[ThomThom]

45. Fortunately there is no conservative party

Republicans are not conservative in the environment, the economy, and even religion. Fundamental born again religious zealots are not conservative. Wealth as God's blessing is not conservative. Waging war around the world is not conservative or part of Jesus' teachings.

[ThomThom]

54. The people don't know what these labels mean or stand for

all they know is the rhetoric and propaganda that the media delivers to them on a daily basis which is skewing their thinking. The MSM is definitely biased against what they term liberal so it is seen as negative by most people. So of course they would not want to be one but they do agree with most of the rights positions including universal health insurance and now exit strategies for these so called wars (occupations) we are involved in.

[dysfunctional press]

46. a lot of people don't realize that they have liberal values...

they just know that 'liberal' is a BAD word.

[Echo In Light]

49. Precisely

[LeftHander]

47. 40% batshit crazy, 36% non-commital weaklings, 20% rational...nt

[Swamp Rat]

50. Well, I'm sorta conservative too.

[boston bean]

51. The democratic party tosses liberals aside at their own peril...

20 percent is a pretty good voting block.

If only many liberals would stop blind support of a party that continually shits on them.