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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 02:51 AM Original message |
Can we finally put the "All the polls are bullshit" thing to bed? |
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readmoreoften
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Wed Nov-03-10 02:52 AM Response to Original message |
1. It's a lot easier than admitting that your strategy, tactics, and platform are bunk. |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 02:55 AM Response to Reply #1 |
2. A few weeks ago I disagreed with someone who told us |
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BlueState
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Wed Nov-03-10 06:16 AM Response to Reply #2 |
11. Clearly by the end results his chances were not "slim at best" |
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tigereye
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:08 AM Response to Reply #2 |
13. although I think it was closer than Nate Silver predicted... |
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Name removed
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:31 AM Response to Reply #2 |
25. Deleted message |
Ter
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:27 AM Response to Original message |
3. No, they will point to Sharron Angle being ahead in the polls and keep it up |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:29 AM Response to Reply #3 |
4. And we'll be told again that Nate Silver knows nothing and his model is flawed |
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Ter
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:47 AM Response to Reply #4 |
5. To be honest, I'm shocked about Nevada |
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BzaDem
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Wed Nov-03-10 04:02 AM Response to Reply #5 |
9. Same exact thing happened in '08. Most polls had Obama up in low single digits -- he won by 12. |
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deaniac21
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:59 PM Response to Reply #5 |
39. Foul play.....in Nevada....couldn't happen. |
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tigereye
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:09 AM Response to Reply #4 |
14. no, he is highly accurate typically |
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zipplewrath
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:11 AM Response to Reply #4 |
15. Which one? |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:26 AM Response to Reply #15 |
21. That was the current polling. |
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zipplewrath
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:44 AM Response to Reply #21 |
26. But you were talking about how "accurate" he was |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:51 AM Response to Reply #26 |
27. He only makes one prediction. |
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zipplewrath
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:01 PM Response to Reply #27 |
30. Wow, okay |
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Statistical
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:44 PM Response to Reply #30 |
37. Well a more realistic analogy would be to predict the world series BEFORE it starts. |
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zipplewrath
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:58 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. Voting started in most places 4 weeks ago |
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Statistical
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:03 PM Response to Reply #38 |
43. No there wasn't. Early voting results aren't released. |
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zipplewrath
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:05 PM Response to Reply #43 |
44. Early voting patterns are |
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Upton
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:15 AM Response to Reply #4 |
16. We'll also be told again that Nate is lying |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:29 PM Response to Reply #16 |
46. He is indeed. We have two choices; |
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apocalypsehow
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:48 AM Response to Original message |
6. Kick, Rec. n/t. |
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BootinUp
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:53 AM Response to Original message |
7. There was a lot of uncertainty in the outcome |
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DrDan
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Wed Nov-03-10 03:56 AM Response to Original message |
8. Thank You |
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BootinUp
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Wed Nov-03-10 04:30 AM Response to Original message |
10. Gallup Generic Ballot poll was bad, here is Nates brief note on polls |
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Upton
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:07 AM Response to Original message |
12. Thank you.. |
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grantcart
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:22 AM Response to Original message |
17. The use of LV modelling was a mess |
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de novo
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:27 AM Response to Original message |
18. I hope so. But, don't count on it. |
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Saboburns
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Wed Nov-03-10 07:53 AM Response to Original message |
19. Ha |
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bemildred
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Wed Nov-03-10 09:03 AM Response to Original message |
20. No, polls are still bullshit. |
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Kurt_and_Hunter
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:27 AM Response to Original message |
22. No. It will be back in 2012, word for word. |
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ProudToBeBlueInRhody
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:31 PM Response to Reply #22 |
33. Unless it looks good for us |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:32 PM Response to Reply #33 |
47. LOL! Too fucking true! |
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spanone
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:28 AM Response to Original message |
23. the california polls were utter horseshit |
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ProudToBeBlueInRhody
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:34 PM Response to Reply #23 |
34. So that's it? |
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Uzybone
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:30 AM Response to Original message |
24. It wont happen |
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cynatnite
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:54 AM Response to Original message |
28. No, I don't think so. Reid wasn't supposed to win last night and he did. n/t |
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arbusto_baboso
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Wed Nov-03-10 11:54 AM Response to Original message |
29. But how much does the constant drumbeat of polls actually DRIVE election results? |
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ProudToBeBlueInRhody
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:36 PM Response to Reply #29 |
35. Well, that may be true |
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arbusto_baboso
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:03 PM Response to Reply #35 |
42. But were they MADE that fucking stupid by our corporate whore media? |
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moondust
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:11 PM Response to Original message |
31. Contrived polls can be used to create "conventional wisdom." |
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treestar
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:23 PM Response to Original message |
32. We can't let them lead us to just give up though |
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GSLevel9
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Wed Nov-03-10 12:39 PM Response to Original message |
36. +1000 nt |
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Evasporque
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:00 PM Response to Original message |
40. yes....nt |
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End Of The Road
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:01 PM Response to Original message |
41. And may we put it the Jon Stewart threads into bed with it? nt |
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NNN0LHI
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:14 PM Response to Original message |
45. Every poll I seen had my Dem governor 6-10 points down. He won |
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Dawson Leery
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:34 PM Response to Original message |
48. No. The final polls showed Dan Malloy behind by a few points. |
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Codeine
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Wed Nov-03-10 01:40 PM Response to Reply #48 |
49. Nate's model still showed Malloy as the likely winner |
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