Coakley Brown Predictions

[Perky]

57-42-3 Coakley Wins on the basis of a 70% voter turnout.

What say you?

[graywarrior]

1. Based on the calls I made in MA today, looks like she could win

[RBInMaine]

14. How did the calls seem to break down for you? Was your call center full?

[graywarrior]

18. We're a small town

The call room expected one or two and got 6 to 8 throughout the day. Most of my calls were supporting Coakley. I made 110 calls today. 1/3 were voice mails.

[democrattotheend]

26. I feel the same way after making calls

Most people I talked to were with her. But without knowing the selection criteria they used for the list, it's hard to draw anything from that. They said that we were calling people we expected to be mostly supporters, and were just doing GOTV. But knowing what I know about the race, I doubt they did a lot of ID's or sophisticated modeling to ID supporters, so the fact that most people I called who we expected to be with her were with her might be a good sign.

[Imajika]

39. But aren't you calling from lists of registred Dems?

I mean, naturally most of the people you reach will say they are voting for Coakley.

Or are you just calling all registered voters in your town?

[Turbineguy]

2. I just hope so.

[femmocrat]

3. I say "From your lips to God's ear"!!!

You might be a little optimistic?

[FrenchieCat]

4. I like that.

OT: Fix prediction spelling in your title. You still have time.

[Perky]

6. thanks Frenchie

[KingFlorez]

5. 52-44-3, Coakley wins

It might be closer, but nonetheless the last minute GOTV will give her the win.

[Aequitasx]

7. That there will be a grave spelling error on the ballot

costing Coakley the race. That's is my prediction*.

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. and that would be......?

[Nancy Waterman]

8. Coakley will win.

Take it to the bank.

[Peacetrain]

10. Coakley.. large turnout.. good for us

[rwheeler31]

11. Bonus boy will be short a coupe inches according to playboy.

[backscatter712]

12. 50-47-3 Coakley.

High turnout is gonna save our butts, but it'll be a squeaker.

[Aramchek]

13. Coakley wins, MSM Mindbenders lose

[wisteria]

44. I like this too! n/t

[Hawaii Hiker]

15. My question is: - Does the 70% turn-out mean

the independents OR the Democrats are turning out in high numbers?....

I'm sure registered Democrats outnumber independents & Republicans in Massachussets, but are THEY the ones projected to turn out in high numbers Tues. causing the 70% turn-out prediction?..

[Betty Karlson]

17. Doesn't really matter:

17 % of the Dems will vote Brown.

Edit: Make that "considers to vote"
And that's according to Suffolk University.
Which apparently is not too reliable(?)

[Aramchek]

19. now that's some pungent Bullshit!

[Betty Karlson]

21. The source of the "bovine excrement" is the poll

of Suffolk University. Feel free to discredit it.

[Aramchek]

23. your 'fact' above should have been enough for you to discredit it

instead you are spreading it. why is that?

[Betty Karlson]

25. It worries me.

It doesn't worry you? Why not? Please, I'd really like to be reassured.

[Aramchek]

29. I don't base my mental state on a last minute outlying poll

If polls determined Elections, Hillary would be President.
But Reality isn't determined by malleable polls.

[Betty Karlson]

31. You have a point.

Please note that the "offensive" post has been edited.

[wisteria]

46. Yeah, a Boston Herald poll comes out and media goes crazy.

From what I understand from other people from Massachusetts, this poll has been notorious for being wrong.

[Betty Karlson]

58. Is that really the case?

If so, I'm glad, relieved, and gratefull to stand corrected.

[polmaven]

61. The Boston Herald

itself is notorious for being a right wing rag.

[wisteria]

45. I couldn't agree more! n/t

[KingFlorez]

28. We can't be sure that will happen

It's not a sure thing that he will actually win that much, he could get less.

[Betty Karlson]

30. I certainly hope he'll fall far short

of all his projected 'victories' in various voter groups.

Would the absentee ballots go for Coakly, mostly?

[HillGal]

66. I just googled absentee ballots, no idea if this is right, but it said

58% to 42% in favor of Brown :(

[Betty Karlson]

98. We'll just hope the snow in Massachusetts's west

will deter Freepers, birthers, and other people of limited imagination to get to the polls, then.

[wisteria]

47. LOL! Boy I hope so. n/t

[HillGal]

64. I read a breakdown somewhere today, I should've bookmarked it ugh but the Independents outnumbered

Democrats. OK I just googled and this was mentioned at Daily Kos:

The affiliation breakdown is approximately:

50% Unenrolled
38% Democratic
12% Republican

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/1/15/204731/460

[Little Star]

93. More Independents in MA than Democrats

This is from a post by DUer FarCenter
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7491076

[Blasphemer]

16. I'll stick with what I thought when the divergent polls started coming out.. Coakley +9

I guess that would be 53-44-3. I still can't fully accept that this race is as close as the recent polling reports have suggested. There's something "off" about the whole thing.

[Aramchek]

20. It's called Media Manipulation. You can smell it a thousand miles away.

[wisteria]

49. Perhaps. n/t

[Clio the Leo]

22. It's starting to look better for her, that's for sure. NT

[democrattotheend]

77. Based on what?

It seems like the sky keeps falling. What makes you think it looks better?

[cali]

24. I hope you're right and I'm flat wrong.

I predict Brown 52, Coakley 46, Kennedy, 2

[democrattotheend]

27. That looks reasonable to me

I know you are going to get hit as a concern troll, but I kind of have a bad feeling I can't shake. Although most of the people I talked to on the phone today were supporting her, so that's a good sign.

[SpencerS]

32. I Wonder If The Weather Will Benefit Martha Coakley

“A major snowstorm is headed for Massachusetts on Monday, which may leave voters with 2-4 inches of snow in Boston, and 6-10 inches of snow in western Massachusetts. Western Massachusetts is considered a stronghold for Republican Scott Brown.
“Cloudy days are in the forecast for much of the state for Tuesday and Wednesday, when there is a 40 percent chance of snow in Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex, Middlesex, and Worcester counties,” the Boston Globe reported.

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/7741

[cali]

33. me too. I just have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.

[democrattotheend]

35. I feel the same way

But I did have one thought earlier that made me feel a little better: I don't know why, but I feel like we could see a Hillary New Hampshire repeat here. Maybe if I talk to any other undecided women voters I will mention the fact that MA has never had a female senator.

Maybe Coakley should go to a diner and cry ;)

[RBInMaine]

36. Why say this? Enough with the Eeyorism.

[cali]

42. the op asked for predictions. he/she did not specify that only those predicting

a Coakley victory should post.

[wisteria]

51. I agree. They no nothing more than anyone else. n/t

[KingFlorez]

56. There is so much "concern" here sometimes

[wisteria]

50. I am not even going to ask you why, you could have kept that to your self. n/t

[cali]

60. one more time: the op asked for predictions and did not specify that all

those predictions should be for a Coakley win. I call 'em as I 'em.

[Alexander]

34. 49-46-5, Coakley win.

I think it's going to be a nail-biting night on Tuesday and the Libertarian guy will pull a surprising number of votes, both because of anger at the two-party system and the fact that his name is Joseph Kennedy.

However, I still see Coakley winning this.

[Drunken Irishman]

37. 53-46ish, Coakley. Put it in the bank. I am never wrong.

[leftygolfer]

40. I really hope you're right this time

I need you to be

[Drunken Irishman]

41. THIS TIME????

ARE YOU SUGGESTING I WAS WRONG ONCE? :P

[wisteria]

52. Boy, I would love to believe you. Can you prove you are never wrong? n/t

[Imajika]

38. 53-47 Coakley

I suspect Brown peaked a couple days too soon for him to win.

So, Coakley going away.

Still dangerously close. Sure hope the party takes this for the dire warning it is. The public is not in the least bit happy with the way we have governed.

[wisteria]

53. Lets just win this election and talk about the changes that need to be made afterwards.

Go Martha!!!

[wisteria]

43. Souds great- but I take a win with even 200 votes as long as it favors our side.

Go Coakley- slam Brown-he is just another phony Republican boy.

[Grand Taurean]

48. Based upon off year turn out

we could see one result.
If independents are angry enough, enough of them could show up that it gets to a razor thin margin or Brownie pulls through by a point or two.
High Democratic turnout is the key here.
I would guess the margins of victory will be anywhere from Coakley +10 should the Dems come to vote and the independents stay home to
Brownie :puke: +2 should the independents come out in force and Democrats stay home.

[wisteria]

54. This race is a an unusual off year election. n/t

[Grand Taurean]

57. I am aware of that.

This is why I am saying there is a slight chance that Brown will pull out a small victory in this normally Democratic state.

[jefferson_dem]

55. 49/47/4 Coakley.

[totodeinhere]

59. According to CNN's Ed Henry, White House advisers believe Coakley will lose.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/17/sources-obama-advisers-believe-coakley-will-lose/

[backscatter712]

62. Rumor-mongering.

It's a front-page story on Kos, but this story is a staffer heard from a Congresscritter heard from another Congresscritter who talked with a White House staffer who said Coakley might lose.

I swear, CNN and the rest of the media can be as bad as the National Enquirer...

[wisteria]

70. The media is drooling over this race. They are making things up as they go along to improve the

rebubs chances.
Don't believe Ed Henry-he knows nothing.

[Perky]

76. That the info they are leaking to stir the base up

lowering expectation stirring the port and oping for a blow out.

[Grand Taurean]

80. You are saying Obama

and company are leaking this info to get out the Democratic base?

[HillGal]

63. Brown, because the Independents are the biggest voting block in the state and

they're fickle, and right now they're going for Brown 3-1, add to that some Democrats defecting, and Republicans standing with their candidate in huge numbers.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

65. 3-1 for a nude? I hope not!

[HillGal]

67. That's what I'm reading :(. NT

NT

[wisteria]

72. Don't believe this person, I think they are a Brown supporter trying to dicourage us.

This poster provides nothing to back up what they are saying and is fairly new to DU.

[HillGal]

73. All you have to do is google for the information. I provided a link above for the breakdown

in party affiliation from the Daily Kos. I've posted a number of times about my disillusionment with Independents and how they swing one way one election and another way the next election. You think I like that? I'm just being realistic, when I read story after story about Independents, then I'm going to eventually believe it.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

81. you may be right

[wisteria]

71. Where are you getting your numbers? You can't just throw this around here

it makes up wonder who you really want to win.

And, I think you are wrong.

[HillGal]

79. I read numerous polls. Have you read the PPP poll that was just released talking about indendents?

how Brown is getting 20% of Obama voters whereas Coakley is only getting 4% of McCain voters? I've been reading polls for over a week now.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/massachusetts-senate-poll.html

[jenmito]

74. Dems. are 4-1 over Repubs., so even if Independents are 50% of the electorate and go

for Brown 3-1, Coakley will win. My guess is 52-47-1.

[Grand Taurean]

68. kick

[quiller4]

69. 53-41-6 Coakley with a 63% voter turnout

Coakley is leading with women generally and with older women in particular. I've looked at the demographics of the different polls and I think all of them have too many men in their sample.

Women are more reliable voters. Older women are the most reliable of voters. They'll turnout in sufficient numbers to elect Coakley.

[TexasObserver]

75. Recommend. Coakley by five.

[Arkana]

78. Brown.

I'm just about completely demoralized, just like the Republicans wanted. I'll still cast my ballot for her Tuesday, but I fully expect that greasy, lying, homophobic, radical-right-wing racist Snotty Scotty Brown will be sitting smugly in Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat, doing all the rounds on the conservative talk shows, and I will have to go into complete news blackout for fear I'll put a fucking axe through the TV.

[wisteria]

83. I say Coakley because she has to pull this one out for all the reasons you mention and more.

The very idea of a Repub as a Mass. senator is more than I can fathom and how he will be promoted will just make me go crazy so I won't be watching any news programs or reading any political news for a while, And then, there is how he is going to screw up Washington.
How anyone who wants to improve our economy,make sure all people are insured, create jobs and give a little something back to the middle class, could even consider Brown seriously is beyond understandable.

[marlakay]

82. Coakley by a few points

I ran into a couple once from MA who told me, we like our senators democrat and our gov repub. That was in 2004.

I wonder if its changed????

I know they have dem gov now so now what?

[Lurks Often]

84. Tossup

I think it is a toss up leaning toward Brown. Here's why:

8 of the 11 polls conducted since 1/1/10 have Brown winning (per Wikipedia).
I am not a statistician, so I don't not know if this is valid, but I averaged the polls and got Brown 47.09% and Coakley 45.91%

Combined with:
1. A poor race run by Coakley, with her saying a number of controversial things and not exactly being the strongest candidate to ever run for Senate in MA
2. A general dissatisfaction with the status quo
3. HCR being an issue
4. More independents then normal leaning toward Brown.
5. A higher sense of discontent among the average Democratic voter.

The bases of both parties will be out voting for their respective candidate Tuesday. It is the Independents and the moderate Democrats that are going to decide the election.

For those of you that disagree with me (and I'm sure you will be along shortly) please provide more of an explanation as to why I am wrong other then the standard "MA is a blue state", "You're a freeper", "But, it's Teddy's seat!" or "The people of MA won't do that to us". All of those are arguments are based on emotion, not reason and denying the obvious: The actual possibility of Brown winning Tuesday night.

[ShortnFiery]

85. 49-47-4 Brown Wins, NT

[backscatter712]

86. Latest 538.com shows it to be a true tossup.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/massachusetts-model-mayhem.html

Even crunching the numbers doesn't tell you much - it all is based on your assumptions, and Nate runs the numbers about six different ways, with different assumptions, with results all over the place.

It's wide open right now, and very dependent on turnout. I'm optimistic that Mass. Dems are waking up, coming to their senses, and coming to realize that even though they're pissed off at the Beltway Dems right now, they really don't want a teabagger sitting in Ted's seat.

[Awsi Dooger]

87. Coakley by 2

I generally like early favoritism to hold up in a D vs. R race. If this were a primary, I'd believe the late poll shift would push Brown over the top.

But I've paid such little attention to this race I'm not confident of anything, other than a shifting situational influence puts races like this in play, and that will continue to be felt. We didn't invent or discover anything in 2006 and 2008. I emphasized that repeatedly. We allowed a trailing gust to take our best shots 30-50 yards beyond their typical resting point.

[ccharles000]

88. ...

Coakley-52
brown-48

[Drunken Irishman]

89. Okay. I'm changing my prediction. Brown 56, Coakley 43.

I was hoping Brown had peaked and some polls indicated maybe a bit of a shift. However, that isn't the case. He's surging and generally the candidate who is surging this late wins running away.

Brown will win in a landslide and the election will probably be decided within the first hour or so after polls close.

[WI_DEM]

91. but I already put your 8-point Coakley win from earlier today "in the bank"

[Drunken Irishman]

99. Well bank broke.

It was looking good at that point. I thought Brown had tapped out his support. Polls were narrowing a bit. PPP had teased us with information that Brown and Coakley were tied and that was a big increase over their last poll which had Brown up. Then their poll released last night had Brown expanding the lead.

Bluntly, I was wrong. I assumed the momentum was fading. Polls released today go counter to that. Not only isn't the momentum fading, it's growing. Coakley is going to get her ass kicked.

Or not. Hopefully not. But right now...I don't feel good.

[WI_DEM]

90. Coakley 49-48-3 for libertarian.

but only if dems gotv.

[AspenRose]

92. Brown's chances are very good.

I'm having the same kinds of gut feelings I did with McConnell/Deeds.

Democrats have made some strategical errors and the GOP will take advantage of that.

[freddie mertz]

94. I am frankly too scared to venture a guess.

[jpak]

95. I don't think this will turn out well

:(

[Little Star]

96. Too afraid to predict. Go Martha!

[MadBadger]

97. As of now, Id say Brown 51, Coakley 47

Hopefully more data comes out showing a tie or maybe even a Coakley lead, instead of Brown up by 10.

[geek_sabre]

100. I'm guessing 54-44-2, brown

I think a high turn out will benefit Brown, rather than Coakley.

[Forkboy]

101. Coakley by 8+

[mvd]

103. Hi Forkboy! Hope you are right. Would like to avoid a nail-biter

I'm basing a Coakley win based on the polls underestimating her support. What makes you feel it will be by 8? :hi:

[Forkboy]

106. No reason really. Just a hunch.

And I hope I'm right, too. :scared:

:hi:

[mvd]

102. Coakley by 2

Got to keep the faith; the polls will be way wrong if Coakley voters wake up because of them.

[Common Sense Party]

104. I say pass me some of what you're smoking.

Because it must be some powerful stuff.

[Phx_Dem]

105. It kills me to say this, but BROWN +4

The only poll that shows Coakley ahead is Rassmussen (the worst!) by +2. :-(

I think I'm going to be sick tomorrow night.