MSNBC just reported that Coakley's internal polling has her up by 2 points...

[jenmito]

which is an improvement from last week when her internal polling had her down by 1. We can do this!

[flamingdem]

1. Phone bank from home LINK and info from Dailykos, LAST CHANCE !! every vote matters

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/1/17/12327/2698

[KingFlorez]

2. Internal polls don't usually mean a lot, but here is hoping

This makes me feel a little better.

[Teaser]

14. actually, they do mean a whole lot

but only to those who are "internal" to the organization. Because they know what poll it is they are seeing, and what the assumptions are. We never do.

Campaigns poll using multiple turnout models. In some of these models, the candidate wins, in others they may lose.

So the question is, which poll were we leaked? And our its assumptions the right one.

[liberal N proud]

3. 2 is too close

They can manipulate vote data when it is that close.

[jaksavage]

4. Electronic voting machines

Any idea how widely they are used in MA?

[MidwestTransplant]

5. I wouldn't expect they would leak a poll showing them losing at this point.

Just saying...

[jenmito]

7. I disagree...

I think they WOULD release it to motivate Dems. to get out and VOTE.

[Tippy]

6. Boston,,,Channel 5

Temp...high 37 Rain and Snow mix

Sunny day would have been better....but 37 degree temp in not bad....

[jenmito]

10. I heard this morning that the weather forecast is for heavy snow in REPUB. sections of MA...

I think they said the NW section...

[Mass]

16. The NW of the state is not Republican...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPMA

Berkshire and Franklin County elected Obama with about 75 % of the vote.

Equivalent results for Kerry

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSMA

Were they talking of Boston NW subs?

Here is the map of 2002 when Romney was elected (red is Dem, blue is Rep)
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2002&st=MA&type=map&off=5&fips=25&elect=0

[jenmito]

44. Then they must've said the Boston NW subs...

because they DID say they were RED parts of the state.

[Tippy]

38. Cape under weather advisory at present time

[Hepburn]

8. Hi, Jen....

...:hi:

Thanks for the good news!

[jenmito]

12. Hey, Hep...

:hi: right back atcha! My pleasure.

[Teaser]

9. SEX!

so awesome.

[napi21]

11. They also reported a bad snow storm in 2 Pub districts.

They said it could negatively affect Pub turnout!!!!

[jenmito]

13. I just posted the same thing above! That would be GREAT! n/t

[totodeinhere]

18. So now you're hoping for a snow storm to defeat Brown?

That's pathetic. He should lose because he's a freeper. In a state like Massachusetts this race shouldn't even be close.

[jenmito]

32. You're NOT? n/t

[totodeinhere]

34. I want him to lose because he's a teabagger. And a jerk.

We shouldn't have to depend on a snow storm to beat him.

[mvd]

36. The snowstorm harms nothing but his election chances

So if it helps us, fine with me.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. I do too but at this point it's too late to go back and do something different

Sadly we are at the point where we are anxiously tuned into the weather forecast because it could make a difference. Nothing can change that now.

[totodeinhere]

45. I hear you guys and perhaps I shouldn't use DU to vent my anger.

I know that if he loses because of the snowstorm we will be much better off with Coakley in the Senate. But if that's what happens, you know how the media will spin it. They will call it a GOP victory because Brown only lost because of the snowstorm. And they will say that this is a harbinger of what will happen in November. Such talk will only serve to demoralize the Dem base and energize the tea baggers. We don't need that.

[mvd]

48. I don't care what the media says

They'll do spinning no matter what. The end result of Coakley in the Senate is what is important.

[Igel]

53. Voter suppression is okay.

As long as it helps the proper party.

It also helps if it's a natural phenomenon. But only if it's a natural phenomenon that helps us. Then it's Democracy, as opposed to democracy. Apparently.

[jenmito]

56. What a dumb comment. "Voter suppression is okay.." Hoping for bad weather is NOT voter

suppression. We hope for good weather for our own side all the time and are happy when the weather is bad in Repub. areas. How stupid to accuse us of supporting voter suppression. :eyes:

[totodeinhere]

15. So it's still a tossup according to that poll.

In a state like Massachusetts, it shouldn't even be close. There is something seriously wrong here and we had better find out what it is before next November.

[Jennicut]

17. Bad economy, poor campaigning by the Dem candidate in the early days

[totodeinhere]

22. So you're saying that Mass voters are stupid enough to blame the economy on Coakley?

And they shouldn't blame it on the Dems either. Any economist will tell you that macro economics take a long time to turn around. The Dems inherited an economy so wounded that there just isn't any magic wand that they can wield that will make a difference in the short run. I would have thought that most Mass voters would be enlightened enough to understand that, but I guess not. So we face the real possibility that Teddy's seat will be held by a tea bagging freeper. It's pathetic.

[Jennicut]

25. Most people who pay attention to elections, especially in a unique one like this, are

not that bright. We at DU are more intelligent then the average voter. Even my conservative Dad, who thinks he is politically aware, cannot name who is head of the Senate Finance Committee or who is the majority whip in the Senate. I think many Mass voters developed an affinity to Teddy over the years that protected him from good years for Dems and bad years for Dems. Dems are in power, most voters who are not well informed will blame the Dems. The electorate in Mass does not seem to have developed a great affection for Coakley like they did Teddy, which would be hard to reproduce anyway. Teddy was there practically forever.

[totodeinhere]

33. Yes, of course. Teddy was a revered institution.

And he will be sorely missed no matter how this election comes out. BTW, if I had to bet on this election I would say that Coakley will still pull it out. But I am nervous about it.

[liberalpragmatist]

35. Also, state Democratic Party is VERY unpopular right now

Gov. Patrick's ratings are in the toilet and there have been several scandals among Democratic officials in the past few months. Coakley is simply too tied to the local party establishment and there's a big anti-elitist/anti-Boston dynamic. So local factors are playing a big role.

[jenmito]

19. Yup-but it's better than it WAS...

and Obama just cut an ad for her. Not to mention, the REPUB. pollster Rasmussen had the HCR plan at 52% approval and 46% disapproval in MA.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. Someone please tell me why this race is even close. Please explain it to me.

How can MA Dems/Indies allow a Repuke--a fucking TEA BAGGER at that--to take Ted Kennedy's seat? :puke::puke:

[Imajika]

24. She ran like an incumbent...

When she bothered running at all. It is probably going to be an anti-incumbent year.

Also, I think the idea you just echoed that it is the "Kennedy Seat" pisses people off. It smacks of entitlement. It really is the people's seat. Brown scored well with people when he said that during the debate.

I still think she wins. My guess is Brown might have peaked a little early.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

27. I don't mean to imply a sense of Kennedy entitlement, but at the same time, I cannot

imagine--based on record alone--by MA voters would be attracted to this guy. He represents regression, not progress. I don't understand this at all.

I do hope she wins, though. If not, it'll be a very, very sad day for many people.

[Beer Snob-50]

29. many in this state

are independent but leaning toward libertarian. and many libertarians drift toward the teabag position.

[Aramchek]

39. it's not, you'll see tomorrow just how large a smokescreen the media is capable of emitting

it's the Repukes last chance to stop HCR

[global1]

21. Will We See Another Franken-Coleman Standoff?.....

and what will that do for the 60 vote majority in the interim?

[deaniac83]

46. a standoff

and undecided election will keep the seat in the hands of the Democrat appointed by Patrick that currently holds the seat until the disputes are resolved and a new Senator is elected.

[DCBob]

23. Very good news indeed.. Maybe Obama made the difference...

Still too close for comfort though..

[ooglymoogly]

26. This should not be happening and if the DLC had not scrooched

its way into control of the Dem party it would not be. I hope this will get through to them that the insult to Dean and the progressives is a dangerous tack to take. None the less I have called or E-mailed my friends and each of them is to call 10, to make sure they make it to the voting booth and vote a dem ticket and I urge everyone to do the same including the Ma. folks on this board who can actually read the tea leaves in the poisonous brew that is DC. The DLC fears losing a "60" majority?....well a majority appears to be meaningless to we the people, but enormously helpful to that top !% (bills that benefit only the top less than 1%) when Rahm's bluedogs and dino's vote with the pugs; So that argument is hard to sell when the DLC is nothing more than pug light. Color me as disillusioned, bordering of apathy by O's oblique and obtuse embrace of the right. Right wing bills that had a hard time in a pug controlled congress, now sail right through in a dem controlled congress

[Teaser]

28. This has little to do with the DLC

and a lot to do wit Coakley's campaign.

Not Coakley herself, she is a pretty good public servant. But her team has run a clown show.

[ooglymoogly]

31. If she loses or wins by only 2%, which may drag this to eternity

It will be because the base is so insulted and disillusioned as to become apathetic, because of the party's oblique turn to the right against the very folks who gave him and the congress many landslides. And that oblique turn my friend, is the work of the devil, the DLC.

[mistertrickster]

50. Damn straight. We didn't work to elect the DLC. Screw it. nt

[RBInMaine]

55. This problem is mainly about Coakley's campaign errors (#1) and the recession.

[Peacetrain]

30. Can I say how happy that makes me... HAPPY!

[flamingdem]

37. It's close, PLEASE PHONEBANK FROM HOME, from any state, DO IT FOR TED !!!!!!!!!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/votercontact/login?requested=%2Fpage%2Fvotercontact%2Fmake_calls%3Fcampaign_id%3DfnrU

[mistertrickster]

51. You lost me when you linked to Obama. I worked for him. Now he can work for me.

Maybe the Dems can pull their heads out of their asses if they lose Kennedy's seat.

[jefferson_dem]

40. Coakley internals: +1, with a catch

Coakley internals: +1, with a catch

There is a report that Martha Coakley's internals for Sunday night put her ahead by two points, 48 to 46 percent. For what it's worth, my little birdie tells me that her Sunday night poll put her ahead by one point and that the three-night average for Friday, Saturday and Sunday also put her ahead by one. Recall that Scott Brown had pulled ahead (by as many as three points) in Coakley's polls that last week. So this might indicate potential tightening.

That said, there's a catch: Coakley also apparently has numbers that showed Brown slightly ahead both on Sunday night and over the last three nights -- a different turnout model.

Her own poll shows her failing to crack 80 percent among Democrats (while Brown is over 90% with Republicans) and losing independents by more than 30 points. A very smart Massachusetts Democrat tells me that "I'm still guessing Brown wins, but it's really a toss-up at this point."

http://stevekornacki.blogspot.com/2010/01/coakley-internals-brown-1-with-catch.html

[Aramchek]

43. what a load of crap! thanks, but no thanks, little birdie

any poll that shows 1 in 5 Democrats voting for the Repuke is shit.

Disgruntled Dems might stay home, but they sure as hell aren't going to stand in line to vote for a Teabagger.

[Mass]

47. All the polls out today have this ratio, with the exception of RS2000.

This is what gives the 5 to 10 points behind that you see.

It is a little hard to believe, I know.

[Aramchek]

49. It's absurd. All part of the Effort to bend the Public Will...

[Igel]

54. That's the problem with all such polls.

And the problem many don't get. The assumptions that go into making your actual data reflect actual turnout matter.

[Imajika]

57. That is kinda pathetic...

"That said, there's a catch: Coakley also apparently has numbers that showed Brown slightly ahead both on Sunday night and over the last three nights -- a different turnout model."

So basically, her internals show she is behind, but in order to release some good news they claim to be +1 in one of the models. Apparently its just that pesky "other" model that shows her running behind. Betcha that other model is the more realistic one considering virtually every other poll shows Brown with momentum.

Coakley very well may still win, and I do believe she has a good shot with solid turnout, but this "internals" release sounds pretty shady and makes me think her campaign could be in bigger trouble than I'd thought.

[dkf]

41. Whoa. Wasn't she down 5 yesterday?

That is a pretty big move.

[butterfly77]

52. It was probably up in the first place..

they are trying to make people stay home...