"The strange politics of the public option revival."

[Clio the Leo]

The strange politics of the public option revival

<snip>

On the surface, then, you have almost 20 senators supporting the idea (of a public option,) the Senate majority leader giving it his backing and the White House saying they'll follow the Senate's lead. Green pastures ahead, right?

Well, not as far as I can tell. I've spoken to a lot of offices about this now, and all of them are ambivalent privately, even if they're supportive publicly. No one feels able to say no to this letter, but none of them seem interested in reopening the wars over the public option. That's why the White House kicked this at Reid and Reid tossed it back at the White House. If the public option is a done deal, everyone will sign on the dotted line. But between here and there is a lot of work that no one seems committed to doing, and that many fear will undermine the work being done on the rest of the bill.

What you're seeing here are the weird politics of the public option at play. It's popular in the country. It's wildly popular among the base. It's the subject of obsessive interest in the media. There is little downside to supporting it publicly, huge downside to opposing it, and no one is allowed to ignore the issue, or even take a few days to see where the votes are.

But it's divisive on the Hill. Bringing it back energizes all the narratives that Democrats fear most: That they're cutting secret deals without Republicans in the room, that they're building an extremist bill, that health-care reform is a government takeover. And this is all happening without 60 votes in the Senate or even certainty of simple majorities in the Congress. Democrats have spent the last month in a state of agonized confusion, and just as matters were clarifying, now this battle threatens to start up again.

No one I've spoken to -- even when they support the public option -- thinks that its reemergence is good news for health-care reform. It won't be present in the package that the White House will unveil Monday. Everyone seems to be hoping this bubble will be short-lived.

But it might not be. The media is talking about it, liberals are organizing around it, none of the major actors feels politically capable of playing executioner, and Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson don't have the power to do the job on their own. As of now, the strategy only has 20 or so supporters, and it'll need at least another 20 or 25 to really be viable. But if it gets there, White House and Senate leadership are going to have some hard calls to make.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/02/the_strange_politics_of_the_pu.html

Ezra is my favorite of all of the bloggers. The kids' a genius. But this whole thing is odd.

Granted, *I'm* not sure the PO is locked or even close to it. I concede that if BOTH Harry and the President wanted it in the bill they could make it happen. And if they BOTH dont want it, it's dead.

BUT .... if BOTH Harry and the White House were opposed to the idea, WHY would Harry have released this letter after spending HALF THE DAY with the President?

and WHY would Harry say "If a decision is made to use reconciliation to advance health care..." when the proposal the WH will realease Monday apparently http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=433&topic_id=187464">will embrace reconciliation.

Puzzling.

[nevergiveup]

1. I really think the PO is dead on re-arrival.

Neither Reid nor the President believe it would survive all the procedural votes necessary for reconciliation. After I listened to Ezra Klein this evening on KO it really became apparent how complicated reconciliation is. If they go for broke and the PO fails then all is lost including insurance reform. I don't think it looks good for any substantial health care reform bill this year.

[Clio the Leo]

5. So then why would Reid publicly say he was open to it....

.... and why would the WH not draw back what Sebelius said last night?

So they can say they "tried"?

Weird.

[brand404]

8. So they can say they tried?" -- Correct, it's all just politics...they have no intentions. nt.

[depakid]

6. Republicans seemed to find a way to take care of business with reconciliation...

with many less votes than Democrats have at their disposal.

[Go2Peace]

16. Just quit all this posturing. Unless they can pass a substantial bill just seperate the regulatory

components and get that passed.

No-one really likes the compromised bills. If they cannot get a PO and this is just going to continually spin and just get everyone upset, they aren't doing anyone any favors.

I don't buy the "we have to pass someone now or nothing will ever happen argument anymore. It appears they don't have the capability to pass anything substantial without gutting it. So they should just change the approach and start to reform in pieces.

At this point I think it would be much more effective to start working quietly. Pass a measure a little later to add funds to medicaid to expand the programs for the lower incomes. They have much bigger problems at this point, such as finding a way to connect with the people and stop the hemmoraging of the party, and passing legislation to stop the coming takover (what's left) of the country by monied corporations. Otherwise all this is just bullshit that will just get overturned or watered out later.

[sandnsea]

2. I think that was sending a message to Republicans

They either come to the table in earnest, as Obama specifically said today, no kabuke theater -- or they will move forward without them. I think it's a good move.

As to the public option, if WE were out in the streets, or if WE were talking about the HCAN rallies - that would certainly help the Senate move.

If liberal bloggers think that ranting and raving and beating the hell out of Congress is "organizing around it", then they're just out of their minds. This is like wanting your boss to give you a raise and beating the hell out of the assistance manager as a threat to the manager. It's insanity.

Rallying means rallying - upbeat, supportive, massive. Ultimately people really do prefer to be "for" something.

[Clio the Leo]

4. exactly. NT

[Go2Peace]

18. Yes of course, the "secret hidden strategy", Of course!

This is all part of the secret plan. They all have psychologists and even the CIA is probably helping them with mind control techniques.

I used to really hope that there was some grand strategy behind all this, but it has become apparent that **they really just don't have their act together**, and that includes the administration. They had more opportunity than they will admit and they are blowing it.

[Skink]

3. Obama has no choice but to support it.

All the cost savings he has put forward come from the po. What's in the legislation now is good from a just point of view but doesn't really contain costs. It's all in the public option.

[brand404]

9. This current plan does make the Insurance companies richer..so at least its a plus for them

not so much for the people.

[smalll]

7. But I thought the Public Option was just a "symbol" ---

remember that?

Honestly, I have no idea what's going on at this point. Who does? :shrug:

[brand404]

10. The PO is dead. It's resurgence recently is just a Ploy to get Repubz to be more bipart....

Democrats have no intent of even looking at the PO seriously. I see it more as a gimmick to get republicans to come to the table and consider watering the current bill a bit more so they will sign on with at least a few votes. If they still dont vote for it (which they wont) then democrats will just go through recon. WITHOUT the PO but not make the current bill any stronger. Translation: Buy more insurance company stock because either way its a win-win.

[global1]

11. The Only Problem Though Is That This Now Talk Of The P.O. Is Re-Energizing The Base......

and if in the last throes of this they go to reconciliation and don't include the P.O. - it will piss off the base to no end. I for one will be pissed if they take it that far and don't include a P.O. to the point that it would be hard for me to continue to support them.

[Onlooker]

12. The public option happens only if Republicans don't play ball

With their recent moves in support of the public option, the Democrats are basically saying to the Republicans and their powerful business allies, If you don't play ball, you're going to get a bill you really hate. What the Democrats really want is a health care reform bill that's robust and bipartisan enough to survive party changes in Congress. If the bill that's passed ends up with only Democratic support, it will have trouble surviving an eventual Republican return to power. That said, you don't bluff unless you're prepared to go through with it. I think if the Republicans don't get serious about health care reform, we'll see a public option. After all, the public option makes economic sense, and the Democrats know it.

[vaberella]

13. Then it would have been implemented as a trigger. Not as a robust PO as it's being touted. n/t

[Onlooker]

15. The trigger is a compromise position

The Democrats have already tried that route. Now the Dems are playing hardball.

[cleveramerican]

14. re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic

these chairs look better this way for the sinking.

[DisgustedInMN]

17. I've got a news flash for all of you..

... "inside the beltway" tiangulating geniuses.

If the Public Option isn't a MAJOR part of HCR act, Dems will be done come Nov. Period. End of game.

[Go2Peace]

19. Democratic Party affiliation is hemorraging - I have yet to see anyone talk about it

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Look at the farthest column on the left, Democratics and Democratic leaning. It has dropped from 53% down to 46% in the last year. During the same period, amazingly enough, Republican Affiliation has actually grown.

What is astonishing about that is that this has happened at a time when the Republican party has looked like a bunch of extremist idiot goons.

Progressives have been trying to tell the Beltway analysts here that this was going to happen with the "wishy washy" bi-partisan approach.

They have got to stop pointing at the Republicans as the sole source of the Party's problems and start looking inward at our own mistakes and problems making principled stands. Americans don't like wimps. They want to be LEAD forward with STRONG and yes Progressive ideas and with conviction!

[Fire1]

20. Herding cats, again? No thanks. n/t

[Go2Peace]

21. There are many ways to lead...

And the alternative is, what? Continue the hemoraging? Did you even go to the link? You can find the exact same stats on every polling orgs sites. It's real and a big problem that we will have to face once we get over our fantasy that if we just "believe" everything will fix itself....

[Fire1]

22. I'm not debating stats. It has been reported long before these

came out, that the fastest growing political group is "independents."

[cliffordu]

23. This is simple:

The WH and Reed are using the THREAT of a reconciliation public option so the Repubs have to negotiate in good faith this wed, or thurs or whenever the meeting is.

With just a threat of 'government run healthcare' being slid past them with 51 votes, I'll bet they play nicer.

IF they don't play nice the D's have some small momentum to actually work on a public option.

As if.......

[Born_A_Truman]

24. I wrote to President Obama last night

asking him to include the PO! Both of my senators are on board.

[polichick]

25. This is what Ezra and Lawrence O'Donnell were talking with Keith about last night...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=189048&mesg_id=189048