NYU professor predicts Democrats will keep the House

[Mefistofeles]

The author of the analysis, released yesterday, is Professor Sanford Gordon. The study is very long, and I don't have time to read it, so I give you the conclusion:

"I project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, albeit with a considerably smaller margin than that enjoyed in the current Congress."

The study does not deal with the Senate, but all forecasts I've seen predict that Democrats will keep the Senate.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/forecast_September_28_2010.pdf

[DrToast]

1. Anyone know this guy?

I've never head of him.

If I understand him correctly, he's basing his results on Cook and Rothernberg's forecast. That doesn't sound very inspiring.

[Mefistofeles]

2. All I know is he has a B.A. from Cornell and a PH.D from Princeton

On Political science. http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/sanfordgordon

His research has appeared in "American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, the Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis, the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, and the New England Journal of Medicine," from the link above.

[book_worm]

3. Well in the introduction it says he predicted a 32-seat gain for the dems in '08 and was off by only

2 seats.

[DrToast]

4. Let's hope he does well again.*

*

[vaberella]

5. Not by a "considerably smaller margin" --- I don't waste my time on economist predicting politics.

They are not politicians or do they have an understanding of US fickleness during election day. What they're saying is nothing I can't say and I say we lose, if we lose, 2-3 seats in the House and 1 or 2 seats in the Senate---if that---cause I think we can take it.