PPP/Daily Kos Poll: HI Governor: Abercrombie (D) 49% Duke Aiona (R) 47%

[WI_DEM]

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/2-3. Likely voters. MoE 2.7%

Neil Abercrombie (D) 49
Duke Aiona (R) 47
Undecided (R) 4


Former Democratic U.S. Representative Neil Abercrombie has a slim lead over Republican Duke Aiona in Hawaii's gubernatorial contest, giving Democrats a chance at picking up a governorship from the Republican Party. According to a poll conducted for us by Public Policy Polling, Abercrombie registers at 49% of the vote with Aiona at 47%.

As with most midterm contests, this race is going to come down to turnout. If turnout were like it was in 2008, the race wouldn't be close -- Abercrombie would be ahead by double-digits, 56-40. It's worth pointing out that 2008 was an especially good year for Democrats in Hawaii thanks to voters turning out for President Obama who -- despite what Fox might want you to believe -- was born in the state. So it would be unrealistic to expect a full and complete return to those sorts of numbers. Nonetheless, even a modest narrowing of intensity between Democrats and Republicans would probably be enough to ensure Abercrombie wins the

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