New Polls Show Senate Control Rests On Four Toss-Up States

[LynneSin]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/13/new-polls-show-senate-con_n_760809.html

New Polls Show Senate Control Rests On Four Toss-Up States

Tuesday was a busy day for new polls from the four closest Senate contests in the nation in Washington, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia. The new polls show the first three states much too close to call, while a new automated poll in West Virginia moves that state back into our "toss-up" column.

In Washington, two new polls demonstrate how differing polling methods and likely voter models can produce very different results. A new automated Fox News/Pulse survey shows Democratic Senator Patty Murray a single percentage point behind Republican challenger Dino Rossi (46% to 47%), while the latest live interviewer Elway poll shows Murray with a 15-point lead (55% to 40%). Our trend estimate splits the difference but gives greater weight to the many recent surveys showing a closer margin than the Elway poll. Murray continues to hold a narrow 1.2 point lead (47.9% to 46.7%) that leaves Washington classified as a "toss-up."

So it's down to these 4 states we need to win: Washington, Illinois, West Virgina and Nevada. We pull in the wins for these states and we can keep the senate majority. I know it's looking better in Washington. I just can't see Nevada going for that nutjob Angle; I mean geez, she's just as bad as O'Donnell but here in Delaware we are totally rejecting O'Donnell. I think Manchin is finally going to pull this one out.

I would strongly suggest that if your races are 'safe' then perhaps help out with other states. Even I'm looking to campaign elsewhere since Delaware is no longer looking risky.

[Bumblebee]

1. I think this is misleading. Dems will lose control only if they lose all 4. They

do not need to win all 4.

[LynneSin]

4. Well knowing that there are a few moderates in that batch, like Manchin...

I'd like to win all 4 if possible!

[Bumblebee]

5. Obviously -- I was just referring to the stated premise.

[AtomicKitten]

2. It appears retaining the House is doable for Dems. nt

[wisteria]

6. I hope you are correct. n/t

[elleng]

3. !!!

'how differing polling methods and likely voter models can produce very different results'

:rofl:

[WI_DEM]

7. I'd add Kentucky to that list. I don't think that Paul has it locked up by any means.

[Ramulux]

8. We are in such good shape in the senate

I really cant believe how great our chances in various senate races have improved. I'll call it right now, we aren't going to lose any of these seats. Manchin was never going to lose, people just freaked out when they saw how close the race had gotten. Reid will win in Nevada, Murray in Washington and I think Gianollius will barely scrape by in Illinois. As it is now, barring some huge scandal, we will not lose these seats. The house is another story, but I can tell you now that the big story on election night will be how badly the republicans fucked up their chances of taking the senate.

[polichick]

9. What about PA - that's pretty close too. nt

[Doctor_J]

10. I guess we'll be watching the impeachment for the next two years

CSPAN and Fox "News" will appreciate it.

[Egnever]

11. Sorry but I dont buy nevada is a toss up

Despite what polls show.

Engle is just too cookoo for coconuts.

[Betty Karlson]

12. Wahington is no toss-up anymore

But Colorado is becoming one. Can we shift some attention over there, please?

[DCBob]

13. I think the Senate is safe.. if things continue the way they are now.

The House is questionable.

[saltpoint]

14. Excellent strategy suggestion, LynneSin. Here's hoping

that there are a good deal of very disappointed Republicans on Nov. 3rd.