Quinnipiac PA-SEN POLL: Toomey 48 (-2), Sestak 46 (+3). "Democrats there have begun to come home."

[jefferson_dem]

October 21, 2010 - Sestak Closes Gap In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Want Their Senator To Oppose Obama

The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a statistical dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey getting 48 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 43 percent likely voter lead for Toomey, a former congressman, in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Toomey is beating Sestak 88 - 8 percent among Republicans and 56 - 35 percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 - 7 percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey's voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The 5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters.

"Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama's improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating."

<SNIP>

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1522

[Cosmocat]

1. GOOD, GOOD man ...

As great a person and candidate Sestak is, Toomey has run a stealth campaign hiding how much of a Wall Street insider he is ...

Also, birds chirping on the "national security" front this go around, the highest ranking member of our armed services who is serving in congress v someone who never served ...

Again, last three years BO, Rendell and Casey have won statewide races by 10 plus points, and the final poll averages have undershot democratic support in all three races ... It is high turnout election for Rs and not the same turnout for Ds as 06/08, but if Sestak is even a point down on average in two weeks, he most likely is going to win ...

[disillusioned73]

3. I thouroughly enjoyed watching the part of

the debate last night when the MIC was vaugely discussed and Sestak drops his creds and all Toomey could muster was "My dad & brother-in-law" served/serve before delving into his obvious talking points. It was quite a contrast.

Another point that made Toomey look foolish was his insistance of the "military tribunals" vs. standard prosecution that he never opposed until prez Obama took office. Sestak took him took to the woodshed on all military/defense issue, he almost lost his comosure at one point - but I can understand why when dealing with a complete corporate shill..

[Cosmocat]

8. If there was even the FIRST level of journalistic integrity ...

in the so called liberal media, any candidate as tied into Wall Street as Toomey should be absolutely TOXIC in this election, but you have Joe and circle jerk crew and Rand Paul babbling about the sanctity of the Chamber of Commerce ...

[Bravo Zulu]

9. “Panic mode starts . . . now

A third poll has confirmed Joe Sestak's surge in the US Senate race, though in this one Pat Toomey holds on to a bare 2-point advantage."

Joining this morning in a “CHOIR OF PANIC” for Congressman Toomey's faltering campaign were the following:

The Washington Post is reporting:

“Toomey is running against the tide … the Quinnipiac Poll continues the string of bad news.”
The Daily Caller states:

“More Toomey voters ... say they may yet change their minds than those now backing Sestak."
Politicalwire reports:

“Toomey's lead collapses in Pennsylvania.”
And, the NY Daily News states:

"Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak has made a habit of building momentum and coming from behind to win — just ask Arlen Specter — and a new Quinnipiac poll out today suggests he might do it again ...
In a wave year, you’d have to say Toomey has the clear edge, but if there’s one place where a state will defy common wisdom and serve as a breakwater, it feels like the Keystone State.

For one thing, Sestak has closed strong in his last two contests, and seems to be able to gin up his own brand of enthusiasm among voters, tapping his military background and his heritage. Indeed, Democratic voters in Pennsylvania seem to be engaging finally, Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown said.

[Mass]

2. This is a third poll showing the race moving toward Sestak. So, something is happening in PA

that is not just the bias of a Democratic leaning polling firm. Good to hear.

[WI_DEM]

4. PPP, Morning Call & now Quinnipiac--if we GOTV in a heavily dem state like PA

we can win. Go Dems!

[ProSense]

5. New Polls Confirm Sestak's Rebound, Leads For Boxer And Brown

Mark Blumenthal

New Polls Confirm Sestak's Rebound, Leads For Boxer And Brown

Two new statewide polls released overnight confirm Democrat Joe Sestak's rebound in the Pennsylvania Senate race, while a batch of new California surveys shows Democrats Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown maintaining narrow leads. Meanwhile, new polls show nominal advantages for the Republicans in the deadlocked Senate races in Illinois and West Virginia.

In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac University survey released this morning confirms that Democrat Joe Sestak has closed the gap with Republican Pat Toomey, showing Toomey up by a slim two-point margin (48% to 46%) that falls well within the poll's margin of error. Quinnipiac's last Pennsylvania survey showed Toomey leading by seven (50% to 43%). Meanwhile, last night's tracking poll update from Muhlenberg College/Morning Call now shows the race to be dead even (43% each).

The new surveys narrow Toomey's lead on our trend estimate to just 2.2 percentage points (46.5% to 44.3%), and shifts Pennsylvania into our toss-up column.



more

[Cognitive_Resonance]

6. Undecideds breaking for Sestak + effectiv GOTV = victory. nt

[KingFlorez]

7. Sestak has closed this up

It wasn't looking good at all for awhile and I didn't think he had a chance to make it, but now I'm thinking he just might win.

[Dawson Leery]

10. GOTV! Santorum II can be defeated. Work on that governors race too!