Why The R's Had A Good Election:

[RBInMaine]

All this talk about how Dems lost because they and Obama were too conservative, or too liberal, or too this or too that is all mostly a bunch of horse hockey. Dems had a tough night for these reasons:

1) The sluggish economy which has created severe frustration. Like it or not, the incumbent party always takes a hit during recession elections.
2) A mid term cycle where the incumbent party usually takes a hit anyway. During a midterm, where there is always lower turnout than in prez election years, more older voters meant more GOP voters.
3)The money factor may well have tipped the scales for the GOP is a number of close races. We'll have to see, and that will have to be addressed.
4) A more energized GOP base, they having lost the last two times.
5) More indies going with the GOP due to an older electorate and voter frustration with the economy.
6) The R's did have a well coordinated campaign effort and message discipline up and down the ticket.

The good news:

1) There is no sudden national love affair with the GOP. This was very much a frustration/protest vote.
2) There were some bright spots, such as NY, CT, and CA and rejections of Angle, O'Donnell and some other radical TeaBaggers.
3) This actually was not as bad as 1994. We kept the Senate, didn't lose as many gov races as we did that year, and had at least typical D turnout in most places for a midterm. The problem was the GOP had more energy and they got more indies due to the economy.
4) Now the GOP has to decide what they are going to do. If they overplay their hand, create gridlock, etc. it really could come back to haunt them if Dems use their overplay against them.
5) The GOP will not be able to reverse D legislative gains. We have the Senate, and Obama has veto power which they can't override. If they message right, Dems can win those arguments.
6) Having done so much else already, Obama and Dems can focus like a lazer on the economy and can make the GOP look like obstructionists and asshats if they play their cards right. Americans DO want their government to take some PROACTIVE action on the economy.
7) If the GOP tries to advance a far right teabagger or near-teabagger philosophy, it will come back to bite them hard. America remains a moderate nation, and it is becoming more diverse all the time. The GOP base continues to shrink demographically despite success in one recession-ridden midterm.
8) If the economy improves to a palpable level over the next two years, Obama WILL be re-elected, and Dems will benefit and regain ground.
The pendulum will swing again.

So, no, we can not and must not be foolish enough to think we can win with ideological purity and without moderate D's and Indies in our camp. There are simply not enough far left progressives to win national majorities in government. That is a mere pipedream. Indies always swing national elections. The beauty is that TeaBagger right wingism will be rejected by moderate indies, D's, and even some oldschool moderate R's going forward. Let the R's shrink into right wing purity. We will be the big tent in the long run that will WIN the nation in that long run and marginalize the GOP bigtime going forward. Chins up. There is great opportunity in the near future.

[BootinUp]

1. why are you posting common sense at the DU

One of these things just ain't like the other.

[RBInMaine]

2. Nice to invoke a little common sense now and again. :-)

[Democat]

3. I agree with you on the economy. Republicans are trapped now!

They can either work with Obama to improve the economy or fight against him. If the economy improves, it will be seen as proof of Obama's leadership skills and the decisions he made in the first two years of his presidency. If the economy does not improve, and if Obama is willing to blame Republicans for blocking important policy, then they will be seen as obstructing and he will win like Clinton did in his second election.

The one thing that could ruin all of this is if Obama is too cowardly and allows Republicans to set the terms of every debate. He cannot allow the Republicans to frame every single issue for the next two years. Obama will need to grow a spine.

[RBInMaine]

5. I agree. HE must FRAME the next two years as FIGHTING FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS ! And he needs to get

out there in public BIGTIME being seen as doing just that. He needs to travel the nation EVERYWHERE and be the fighter for AMERICA that he was in his 08 campaign. He can not hunker down in Washington acting like "Mr. Spock." He needs to be out there raising national confidence, fighting, and being inspirational like "CAPTAIN KIRK" (to use the Star Trek analogy). America wants "Captain Kirk" LEADERSHIP during bad times, not "Mr. Spock." Be "Mr. Spock" behind closed doors. Be "Captain Kirk" in public and in front of the cameras. When a nation is feeling down, they want to be lifted up and inspired. THIS is what Obama MUST do. He spent too much of the first two years playing Mr. Spock when the nation NEEDED a Captain Kirk. (Yes, I love Star Trek, but it make the point. :-) (Another good analogy was we needed a Hughey Long type populist type of leadership or an FDR type in the first two years, not so much a Calvin Coolidge type in front of the cameras. Immediately after his 08 election he should have STAYED in campaign mode as the CHAMPION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS. Politics is all about perception and messaging. He needs to be INSPIRATIONAL and CONNECTED to the people. Yes, he needs to make people understand that he FEELS THEIR PAIN AND THAT HE IS FIGHTING FOR THEM.)

[flamingdem]

30. Silver Lining: a clearer message nt

[quaker bill]

4. Barack will benefit by contrast

Up to now the contrast has been Obama versus the theoretical actions some imaginary "true progressive" President might do. Now it will be Obama versus what Bohner and the republican house would and are attempting to do.

Set in this new background, he will look more progressive by default.

The new republican house majority will get nothing of consequence done unless they compromise. They ran on no compromise. Many of their members are not tempted to compromise, it will be difficult for them to establish discipline within their own ranks. Their majority will be stupid and colorful, but likely unproductive. The TEA wacaloons will not be pleased with the results.

It is not as bad as some think.

[RBInMaine]

6. Divisions already exist between more moderate R's and teabaggers. These may well increase.

[BootinUp]

8. glad to see another voice of reason

round here quaker bill.

[old mark]

7. Because the D's didn't vote?....nt

[RBInMaine]

9. I think the numbers will show typical D turnout for a midterm. It was just that R's were highly mo-

motivated and we lost too many I's.

[old mark]

19. There are over 1 million more D's than R's here in PA, and we gave away

everything - senator, many house seats, governor and so many state legislature seats that the Democratic party is powerless here in PA...and our GOP governor elect is patterning himself after Christie in New Jersey, so we are in the shit for many years to come.

We gave it all away here.

mark

[RBInMaine]

21. If half of registered D's came out, that is good for a mid-term. It may just be R's & R-leaning I's

just came out that much stronger. You need to take a look at your actual turnout numbers.

[old mark]

25. Were around 44% - usual midterms are arouind 35%. GOPers were very angry

at Obama since his last visit here as a candidate when he made some remark about rural people hanging on to their religion and guns...he is still seen as very anti-gun, and that is milked by every republican runing for anything. I'd bet a large number of GOP voters came out for that reason alone - I had conversation with several the Monday before and was assured there would be a huge republican turnout to beat the Democratic gun confiscators. There was at least one Philly area Dem house candidate running a gun control TV ad, and I cringed at his stupidity every time I saw it, but people never seem to learn.

I am sure we will have 8 years of republican domination here, and maybe that will be just the beginning.


mark

[sweetapogee]

26. I'm in PA also

old mark. I acted as a poll watcher in rural NE PA and as such got to see my district results. Roughly 50% of registered dems voted repub. Here Barletta literally destroyed Kanjorski, who by the way was endorsed by the NRA. Folks here just don't trust dems when it comes to gun rights. Add that to a sinking economy, and we loose.

[LatteLibertine]

10. Well

we know the large corporations have plenty of money to invest in the economy. They chose to sit on it hoping things would stay bleak so folks would blame the Democrats and vote them out. It worked well. They certainly did spend a good deal of cash running ads against Democrats.

Many of the most wealthy, large corporate special interests and Wall Street have definitely targeted President Obama. They view him as a threat due to his desire to regulate and temper their outlandishly greedy ways. They want unfettered large corporate rule through our government. With a GOP majority they're back on their way towards it.

Boehner was just on TV today saying the Nov 2nd victory was "the people" demanding the Bush tax cuts be made permanent. Surprise!

In addition, many older voters turned out and many younger folks did not. Older white folks are known to trend conservative and Republican.

[Doctor_J]

11. 7. The GOP has complete media saturation

NOTHING but right-wing republican propaganda gets through to 80% or more of the American electorate

no revolt against hate radio and Big Media = no change

[KeyserSoze87]

12. The Republicans and Teatards had better enjoy their victory while they can, because it won't last...

Anyone who saw the unemployment report for October knows what I'm talking about. In just this one month alone, Obama and his administration created over 150,000 private sector jobs. No longer will the payrolls be skewed by census worker layoffs. Now, the monthly job reports will show the true picture of where America is headed, and what the fate of the Republicans and the Tea Party will be in 2012. I am certain that in the next year or so, there is going to be an explosion in jobs, and the stubborn unemployment rate will finally be plummeting. And this will help get Liberals and Democrats the payback they need for the next election. If the jobs picture continues to go in the direction it is going now, then there could very well be a Republican apocalypse in 2012. And I think there will be. The teabaggers and Republicans may have the upper hand at the moment, but right now, an enormous, unprecedented force is growing among Democrats, Liberals, and Independents, and in two years, both groups will be powerless to stop it. They will be begging for mercy, and in November, Obama and the Democrats will completely obliterate them. The entire Tea Party movement will collapse, and the Republican Party as we know it will be gone for good. Obama just needs to continue what he has been doing, and if he does, this will happen, and the people--the silent majority-- will finally triumph.

[RBInMaine]

15. I believe your scenario will occur in large measure if, as you say, the economy continues to

improve AND if Obama and the Dems MESSAGE right in the next two years. Obama already knows full well that McConnell has said his priority for the next two years is simply to do all he can to defeat him in 2012, and Boner has said he will not compromise. So what Obama and Dems need to do is UNITE IN THEIR MESSAGE and in their policy agenda correctly this time. Obama will be able to say after their Nov. 18th meeting that he tried, AGAIN, to work with R's but that they absolutely refuse and again only want to play politics and refuse to take action to help the country. He then needs to get LOUD and POPULIST and get out in the country CONSTANTLY at town meetings, etc., visiting plants and other businesses, and he and the Dem congressional leadership need to formulated a powerful, united, CONSTANT messaging theme on their MADE IN AMERICA agenda and a REBUILDING THE MIDDLE CLASS agenda to hold in stark contrast to the R agenda of a return to the failed Bush plan of deregulation and trickle down. This really is a great opportunity to CONTRAST what Dems want to do and what R's want to do going forward over these next two years. This time, Obama needs to get loud, get clear, get emotional, and get POPULIST. He needs to stop playing a transactional "Mr. Spock" role in Washington, and get out around the nation playing a transformational "Captain Kirk" role: the BOLD leader of the people.

[KeyserSoze87]

17. If history repeats, then it will happen.

Look at both Reagan and Clinton. Their parties lost the midterm elections because of the economy. However, the economy quickly recovered shortly after midterms, which made them win their second terms by a landslide. And I'm almost certain that will also happen with Obama.

[RBInMaine]

31. But this is a DEEP recession. It should recover somewhat, hopefully enough.

[jacksonian]

16. I hate to rain on this

But the reality is that any economic improvement will now be credited by the media to the new R influence, even if they have nothing to do with it.

In my mind, anything that guarantees Obama's reelection also guarantees the House stays R and they pick up the Senate as well. If the economy tanks, we all lose and Obama's a one-term pres.

Also known as rock and hard place.

[KeyserSoze87]

18. The Republicans could pick up the Senate in 2012.

But I think they will be totally destroyed in the presidential race. Because keep in mind that Obama will still be president by 2012, so therefore he will also get credit.

[jacksonian]

20. Look, Obama press and an Entire R congress is hell

We get nothing done or worse, and await the new R press/congress in 2016.

We must retake the House or we are in deep shit. It's a simple as that. Fortunately, any scenario that wins back the House would also reelect Obama.

[RBInMaine]

23. A better economy = Obama re-elected = Coat-tails and re-energized D party = win back the House.

[KeyserSoze87]

28. We could take back the House in 2012.

If the Democrats can do it, they'll be invincible. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

[RBInMaine]

24. Doubtful with coat-tails and a re-energized Dem party.

[KeyserSoze87]

27. Yeah, I'm hoping the Rethugs will get pounded in the 2012 congressional elections.

They deserve it.

[RBInMaine]

22. It helps Obama and Obama will have D coat-tails and re-energize the party.

[Dawson Leery]

29. If Obama wins by a large enough margin, then yes.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

13. Thanks for a refreshing dose of sanity. K&R nt

[MissMarple]

14. K&R