It's < 8 % Unemployment Or Bust In 012

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The fate of President Obama and every Democrat on the ballot is inextricably linked to the fate of the economy; the worse it is the worse Democrats, at all levels will do, as well as vice versa.

If the economy doesn't dramatically improve, which I will define as > 4% annual GDP growth and < 8% unemployment by 1/12 we will be having the same discussions we had this Summer and Fall, i.e., the polls were all wrong, not enough cell phone only users were included in surveys, the electorate polled didn't include enough minorities, et cetera.

[dkf]

1. Ironically if it does get fixed it will be the natural progression of the economy.

Because there will be no ability for us to claim that government programs did the job now that we aren't going to be able to implement programs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Will Take It

Presidents get too much blame and too much credit for the economy so a president we like might might as well be the recipient of the credit. We were punished this cycle.

[dkf]

5. True. It should pick up some as you can only push workers so long

When the economy picks up I bet we will see a lot of turnover.

[book_worm]

6. Actually the Stimulus helped a great deal

[dkf]

9. But not enough to make us feel secure.

[jpak]

3. Sorry - if the Repugs have their way, we will slip back into recession in 2011

and unemployment will be closer to 10%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Then the Nation Is Screwed As Well As The Democrats

~

[golfguru]

7. The economy will rebound if this corporate skewed HCR is repealed

For profit private insurers (FPPI) get a gift of millions of additional paying customers, courtesy of middle class workers and all tax payers who will pay higher premiums and higher taxes.

There is not a single restraint on premium hikes by FPPI in the bill.
The FPPI's are free to increase your premiums as high as necessary until
their profit goals are met. Annual rate hikes as high as 34% are already
showing up in this year with majority to reset higher on January 1st 2011. Note that the average premium increase has been under 9% per year over last 10 years, BEFORE this HCR bill.

The HCR bill prohibits drug importation! WOW what a bonanza for big pharma! The bill does not require negotiations with big pharma on drug prices. Drug importation costs nothing to consumers, it actually benefits.

No competition to FPPI from PUBLIC OPTION to keep rate hikes under control. This was the only effective means of restricting run away rate hikes.

Competition to FPPI from across the state lines by other FPPI's is prohibited in bill. So each state has it's FPPI operating as a monopoly without outside competition. Including across state competition would cost nothing to consumers.

Nothing in the HCR bill to restrain frivolous malpractice suits which end up costing all consumers of health care more.

No wonder democrats all over the country running for election have rung away from it and I can't blame them one bit. I have not seen too many Ads from democratic candidates running in 2010, touting their vote on HCR bill. Because they all know they caved to campaign cash over people's interest.

To be sure there are some very good things in the bill such as no cancellations and no rejections. However both of these are NOT mutually exclusive from my list above. Those good feature could co-exist with real Health care reform.

[Skittles]

21. it is indeed a big giant shit sandwich

funny how they managed to toss in some "good parts" but those will be trashed by repukes leaving us an even bigger pile of shit

[denimgirly]

8. Quick Call Geitner and Bernanke -- We can do this...More Free Money to Wall Street...Pronto!!

[FBaggins]

10. Not that simple at all.

It will all depend on how things play out.

I expect the economy to continue to recover (and faster), and that the President will get deserved credit for it.

Things could be even brighter if things get better without republicans passing anything of note.

But it isn't necessarily a death-knell for the president if unemployment is still high in 15-18 months. There could be plenty to blame on republicans if most of the recently lost jobs are from draconian budget cuts that lay off teachers and police and firemen (etc).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. If Unemployment Is > 9% And GDP Growth Is < 2% He's Jimmy Carter

If unemployment is < 8% and GDP growth is > 4% he's Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

You can nookmark this thread.

[FBaggins]

14. Not if it's blamed on republicans. n/t

[de novo]

17. Doesn't matter who you want it to be blamed on. It will be blamed on the

party in the WH. It really is that simple.

[Exilednight]

16. Not sure how to nookmark a thread, but I can bookmark it LOL n/t

[high density]

11. Don't worry, the Republicans are going to do everything possible to make it even worse

And Obama will take the blame.

[handmade34]

12. Tax cuts do not create jobs!

[trulybluish]

15. Not a good idea

to tie Democrat fate to unemployment rate. Didn't obama promise the stimulus would push us below 8?
We need to move the playing field from the symptoms to the causes. Banks, speculation, financial shenanigans, wall street, outsourcing, corporate tax breaks, etc.....

[FrenchieCat]

18. Good!

When the Republicans are in charge, you can say you drew the line in the sand.

Good on you! Yeah! :bounce:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. It Was A Prediction/Observation, Not A Challege

~

[tritsofme]

19. The most important indicator will be his approval rating from about a year out.

If it is above 50% and stays there he will win reelection even if unemployment remains elevated.

However a very possible effect of 8%+ unemployment would be an approval rating under 50%, which would make reelection very difficult and a historical anomaly.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Great summary; I could only quibble on the edges

Every major indicator -- notably the two you isolated -- need steady positive direction, and themed that way in the media and national mood. Whether it's >4, or nearby, or <8, or nearby, I'm not sure. More conflicting variables this time, with the demographics moving our way but the economy anchoring us, far beyond what is accepted here, or even in the White House, I'm afraid.

I'd say it can be mid 2012, spring to summer, and not a January 2012 cutoff. Late 2012 is definitely too late, to the point of irrelevancy. As I tried to emphasize in a thread last night, the greatest myth of all is Obama has two full years. That was true six ago, not today. Voters are weighing the challenger in fall of election year. They've already made every conclusion about the incumbent and his economy.

I know one thing, Obama needs to be exponentially more forceful than recently, or tonight on 60 Minutes. What is the memorable quote or phrase from his presidency? I can't think of one. Not the campaign, the presidency. There should have been something from the BP disaster that worked in his favor, a bullshit bull horn moment if nothing else. We mock the term Party of No but that has a sturdiness to it. My right wing friends actually embrace it, to my initial dismay until I figured it out. White guys lap up that crap; daddy party nonsense even if they have no clue they are voting against their best interests. Like Bill Clinton emphasized, "Strong and wrong (over) weak and right."

I'm scared. We'd all but shaken references to Carter. If another Democrat holds office in the worst of conditions for an extended period, regardless of how it happened and who is to blame, it will attach for decades and partially wipe out the demographic shift, particularly if the other side swipes our mint with guys like Rubio.

[sweetapogee]

22. One

thing that also has to happen, in addition to lowering the unemployment rate, the dems and especially the WH has to keep inflation in check. What good is having a paycheck if it costs $10.00 for a loaf of bread? This is one area that President Obama can learn from President Clinton and Bush Jr. they both presided over an economy in growth mode but kept interest rates and inflation low.

A problem I foresee is once the economy starts to heat up, with all the government debt we have, the risk of high inflation is very real. This is the Carter connection to the economy we keep hearing about. Mock the pukes all you want but at least they are offering a plan (cut spending), which is one of, as I see it 3 possible plans available, the others being government take over of businesses (example GM), or a massive tax increase with sky high interest rates (which the voters in 2012 will not tolerate). Given the fact that HCR will already increase taxes (and health insurance premiums) for middle class payers and impose taxes on some low income workers not used to paying a lot of taxes, I think the President (and democrats by extension) will have enough work on his/their hands avoiding a hostile voter revolt next time around.

At some point in the future, we Democrats are going to have to counter the pukes slash and burn of budgets. I'm listening for but not hearing any real workable plan to address paying back the money already spent (the stimulus) which gave us mixed results at best. Calling the opposition names, while therapeutic is not going to translate into votes in two years. College students, an important part of the dem base who wish to enter the work force and start paying off some of their student loans within the next year or two will be a hard sell for Obama if the economy has nothing to offer them.

I agree with Awsi Dooger (not sure that he is thrilled to have me agree with him) that we don't have a whole lot of time, if the economy doesn't start moving in our direction soon, it's going to be a long time before we get back to where we were in 2008. Another poster stated that there will be no further stimulus from the federal government. I quite agree with that opinion also. One of the details in the GM bail out that doesn't get much press is that the money infusion didn't do anything to address the real problem GM has, 3 pension recipients for every worker on the line. I personally would think twice before buying any GM stock before that issue is addressed, if it's not, GM could still tank.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Think The Fears Of Incipient Inflation Are Overstated

~

[sweetapogee]

25. what happens

once the money supply dries up? Answer, the government prints more greenbacks. What happens when the presses start rolling? Inflation. ECON 101

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Inflation Is Caused By Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods

With manufacturing capacaity at less than seventy percent we are are a long way from that happening. You should have taken ECON 201 which is the companion to ECON 101.

[sweetapogee]

27. servicing

debt is the product. The federal government is spending 40+% of revenue servicing the debt. States are at this level and some above it. Do you really think that we have no inflation worries when the economy picks up?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. The Economy Might Never Pick Up

We might fall into a deflationary spiral like Japan and not only lose a decade but more elections at every level.

[sweetapogee]

29. take your pick

either way, we are screwed

[uponit7771]

30. Iowa is at 6.8% and it was STILL bust, message makes a huge difference