Times a-growin' short for that Primary Challenger...

[alcibiades_mystery]

Primary voting for 2012 starts in 13 months. Which Democratic candidates are beating the bushes in Iowa, New Hampshire?

Obama declared his candidacy for President on February 10, 2007. A similar declaration would have to happen in roughly 72 days. Who's gearing up for that? Obama was all over Iowa and New Hampshire in the fall and early winter of 2006. So was Hillary. We know the Republicans are out making their play in those states: Huckabee, Palin, Romney. They're laying down the organization. Where are the Democratic primary challengers? Where are they?

Hillary Clinton declared her White House run on January 20, 2007. A similar declaration would have to happen in roughly 51 days. That's less than eight weeks. Who is the candidate gearing up for a primary announcement in less than eight weeks?

John Edwards declared his candidacy for president on December 28, 2006. A similar announcement would have to happen in 28 days. Four weeks from now. Where are all the primary challengers?

OK, OK! Kucinich! He's a kind of casual guy, not prone to getting all jumpity over the media and shit, right? That dude must have announced in like the summer of 2007 and shit, right? Neeeeee-ope. December 12, 2006. A similar announcement would have to happen in 12 days, less than two weeks from today. Think Dennis is going for it? In two weeks?

Not an accurate comparison, you say? Let's try Bill Bradley, who ran against party favorite Al Gore in 2000. Yes, he didn't announce until June 1999. That would give us a whole seven months for an announcement. Feeeee-Whew.

OK, OK. Let's go back, way back, to the Kennedy-Carter affair of 1979/80. Kennedy entered into a very public decision-making process in the spring of 1979--should I, shouldn't I?--it was the talk of the town. For months. Let's ballpark the first glimmers of desire at April, make it a baseball season. He finally announces in November 1979. That gives y'all a year. But he was essentially running in August. Make it nine months. It's a pregnancy! No biggie. Oh, and it was 1980, so there was a totally different media and election environment, but whatever, right?

Where are they? Where are they? Where are they?

Time's a-growin' short for the emergence of your primary challenger.

[tishaLA]

1. Ahhhh! Facts! They burn!

[midnight]

2. Maybe wikilileaks has a cable letting us know.... Seems so

much news is blocked via low level reporting....

[CakeGrrl]

3. A theory floated yesterday was that the Progressive grassroots needed to mobilize

to encourage the challenger to come forth. If they knew they had the support, the thinking went, then the challenger would make their intentions known.

So who goes first?

Not something I'm losing sleep over since I'm not mobilizing for a primary challenger, but I'll watch and see how (or when, or if) the moves are made.

[Clio the Leo]

5. The REPUBLICANS dont even want to declare their candidacies ....

.... the notion that anyone on the left is going to challenge the President is just someone's absurd fantasy.

[sat110]

8. Real Democratic needed ASAP

We better find one fast, any Real Democrat's better then him He's a sure
bet to lose.

Why? Obama makes Michael Dukakis look like Rocky

He caved on everything instead of fighting like a man for democratic
principles and values, the public option being one of the most important
and coming shorty the 700 billion tax break for the wealthy top 2% If we do not
start looking for another Presidential Candidate for 2012 we will lose in a
landslide like never before. his big problem is not Republicans its his base
he spit on.

I have solid progressive Democratic friends I have known for decades not one
of them would ever vote for this guy again, and that's even before he passes
the full Bush tax cuts. to ignore these facts is simply insane. The one I feel
really sorry for is Biden.

TP

[monmouth]

9. I spent Thanksgiving in the northeast with Dems, Progressives and

Liberals. None would vote for him again, very disappointed. Surprisingly, Nancy Pelosi was the favorite.

[Kdillard]

20. Really so they think a Republican would do a better job. I guess they must have been thrilled with

the loss of the House made them happy. I really don't understand people like that.

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. The loss of the House DID make them happy

That's the caliber of fool we're dealing with.

[monmouth]

31. They would like to see Obama challenged...n/t

[JNelson6563]

12. lolz

:rofl:

Welcome to DU. :rofl:

Julie

[cyr330]

55. This worries me, too.

I live in San Francisco, and yes, it is an ultra-liberal town (thank god). The anger here against Obama is palpable, at least among the people I know, as I cannot speak for everybody. It is quite a turn around from 2008 when everybody was ecstatic. It's hard to hold onto feelings of ecstasy, as it's not reasonable to feel that way all the time :) . Nonetheless, I feel that there is a definite lack of trust on the part of Obama's former supporters

[creon]

38. well,

people need to concentrate on getting progressives elected to Congress.

That is the priority

[CakeGrrl]

41. Tell it to the mad rabble that's in a frenzy to see Obama out in 2012.

[creon]

42. no mood to listen

The prisoner of their passions.

[creon]

43. no mood to listen

The prisoner of their passions.

[Clio the Leo]

4. I hate Tennessee snow .... pretty sure I'd hate Iowa snow even more...

.... so count me out! (sorry)

[Hardrada]

6. We don't have any snow here in eastern Iowa.

No real menace yet. Great. I personally look forward to seeing Dem candidates in my town. They always come here so I hope to see a lot more in the next year or so.

[WI_DEM]

15. Well maybe Obama or VP Biden will come to campaign

[Hardrada]

34. Feingold?

[Telly Savalas]

35. He's a great guy but...

1. The last couple of times around he's been bandied about as a possible candidate, and I'm pretty sure he said he wasn't interested.
2. He just lost an election, which doesn't exactly position himself very well as a person who's going to convince folks that he can win in 2012.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[quaker bill]

10. not gonna happen

the political atmosphere that would allow a challenger to be successful is the same atmosphere that would prevent any Democrat from winning in 2012. There is nothing to be had in a challenge, even if you win. Therefore it will not happen.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Seems reasonable

:thumbsup:

[impik]

13. The sky will open and Nader will fly straight t the WH. No need for election even

[WI_DEM]

14. There never was going to be a primary challenger...

It's just something some on DU want. The fact is that MOST Democrats support the president. Nationally his approval is in the mid 40's. and in the 80's among Dems. Compare that to when Teddy Kennedy jumped in vs. Jimmy Carter and Carter had a 29% approval rating or when Lyndon Johnson was challenged by McCarthy in '68 and LBJ had a 36% approval rating.

A challenger would know it would be almost impossible to defeat Obama and if he were nominated that the nomination would be worthless. African-Americans for one, would sit out the election in major numbers rather than vote for the candidate who challenged the first African-American president especially one who has a relatively good record of accomplishments.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Well

I know that, and you know that, but I like to show some additional information indicating that. One piece of information is the timing of candidacy announcements. It would seem that a primary challenge would have to be kicking into gear soon. The fact that we don't see it happening is just another concrete indication of what you and I both know, but what some DUers seem to be delusional about.

:-)

[WI_DEM]

17. Yeah, a challenger would need to get in the race quickly that is true.

Dean, DK, Feingold and others have denied that they want to run.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Yup

The Candidate Denial is one thing, and is never really believed by people hopeful for a run.

Actual and complete lack of steps towards running, especially as a timeframe for a run creeps up, is somewhat more difficult to process than a verbal denial.

[Jim Lane]

19. There's still plenty of time for a symbolic candidacy, one not aiming at being nominated

Mike Gravel or someone like that could get into it many months from now, just to give the disgruntled liberals someone to vote for. Such a candidacy could actually help Obama in the general -- those of us who think he's far too conservative would have blown off some steam by nixing him in the primary, and would then find it easier to fall in line and vote for him in the general.

Also, a progressive challenger would automatically make Obama look more conservative by comparison. That would help Obama pick up some swing voters in November.

For the reasons others have stated, I never thought there was any significant chance of a serious primary challenge to Obama, i.e., one aimed at winning the nomination. The symbolic challenge has always been the most I hoped for.

[onenote]

22. MIke Gravel? That's your "symbolic candidate"? ROFL

What exactly would a Gravel candidacy symbolize? The guy is a few months shy of his 81st birthday, so he's a great symbol to the young voters. And he dumped the Democratic Party and tried for the Libertarian nomination in 2008, which makes him a rather odd choice to stand up as a symbol for Democrats. Of course, he might have already announced and no one would know it given his nearly complete lack of ability to raise money.

Thanks for the chuckle!

[alcibiades_mystery]

24. By the way, Mike Gravel announced his candidacy in APRIL 2006(!!!)

Which is to say, the symbolic candidate would have had to have announced EIGHT MONTHS AGO!

:rofl:

To be fair, he also announced his candidacy (for a second time, presumably because nobody heard him the first time) on December 22, 2006, which gives the mystical symbolic candidate three more weeks to re-announce!

:rofl:

[Uzybone]

21. someone will arise from the ashes of backbiting and trolling

a man/woman who can capture the recs and votes of hundreds of Americans and put that Obama dude in his place.

[alcibiades_mystery]

23. ROFL

:thumbsup:

[Number23]

50. Plus a BILLION.

a man/woman who can capture the recs and votes of hundreds of Americans

HUNDREDS of Americans!! :rofl: You mean, like the complete population of the perpetually irate in GD who act as though they represent not only the majority of the Dem party but the majority of AMERICA?!? :rofl: :rofl:

[polichick]

26. This arrogance reminds me of the arrogance of the WH - the very thing...

...that could keep previous supporters out of the fold next time around.

Edit: typo

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. So don't vote

:shrug:

I agree with your stay-at-home position now. I'm all for it.

[polichick]

29. Where did I say it was MY position? I've never missed a vote. nt

[AndrewP]

54. It's incredible arrogance

"Off with you small people and your conversations".


Well, no shit sherlock that there isn't going to be a serious Democratic Primary contender if they don't appear in the next 2 months. And that isn't going to happen. It doesn't mean that people don't have a right to make their wishes for a primary challenger to be known.

[Freddie Stubbs]

27. Bobby Kennedy declared his candidacy in January of 1968 and scared LBJ into dropping out

[alcibiades_mystery]

30. Most candidates pre-90's declared much later than they currently do

Mostly in November or thereabouts. McCarthy declared in late November 1967. He was the first to announce.

In any case, Robert Kennedy announced his candidacy on March 16, 1968, four days after McCarthy's strong challenge in New Hampshire. He did not announce in January 1968, though it was clear that he had significant support by then, as he'd been building organization since October 1967 or so. But can you imagine a candidate announcing these days AFTER the first two primaries? It's a different time.

Johnson pulled from the race 15 days after Kennedy announced his candidacy. Obviously, Humphrey entwered the race after that, with a number of primaries already completed. Different time, different dynamics. Probably 1980 is as far as we can go back on this without being in an apples and oranges sort of situation.

[zulchzulu]

32. Maybe some DU Obama trasher can run so we can watch them make an ass out of themselves

Where do I send a check...

[craigmatic]

33. There's not going to be a primary. A 3rd party challenge is far more likely.

[polichick]

36. I agree that a 3rd party challenge is more likely - and the candidate will...

...be somebody we all know already.

[creon]

37. No

There is no one witth the stature to challenge Obama.

And, it is the wrong place for the energy.

If you want progressive legislation, you need a progressive majority in Congress.

That means: 218 progressives in the House.

51 progressive Senators.

[sweetapogee]

39. you mean yes

If the economy doesn't start showing serious signs of improving, and I mean very soon, there will be several dem primary challengers as in more than one. And once the dam starts leaking, it will suddenly burst. It will be very quick and basically at the last minute. President Obama cannot run for reelection with approx. 9.5 % unemployment and several large states on the verge of going bankrupt. As it stands right now, the best unemployment figures President Obama has had was the day he took office, it's been all down hill since.

As far as congress is concerned, hate to break it to you but the momentum is going in the opposite direction. Reality is your friend and guides you plan accordingly. And that my friend is our problem. We don't have a plan. What we do have is a vision for the future but no vehicle to transport us there.

What the country wants is the economy fixed. We as a party overall have not come to the point that the economy is the first priority. Until that happens, we will continue to loose ground.

The pukes have made it clear that they intend to investigate the administration. If this proves to be fertile ground, the presence of a primary challenger will be the least of the Presidents worries.

Let me repeat, until we, the democratic party gets it through our thick heads that we have to craft legislation and policy that gets the economy rolling and we make putting the country on solid financial ground our goal, we will continue the looses at the polls. Our opposition, they get it, the only thing saving our bacon is they can't agree on a uniform message. But if/when they get on message we will be screwed royally, that is if we don't start putting forth the effort.

Have a nice day...

[Telly Savalas]

40. What are the names of some of the folks who might challenge Obama

in the event this happens? What are they waiting on? For the economy to make those serious signs of improving in the next 10 weeks or so?

[sweetapogee]

47. I have my theories

but will elect to keep my powder dry for now. Sorry.

Anyone who might think about a challenge is as I said going to wait until the last minute, especially if that person is in office now.

[creon]

45. I know that

The economy was Job one in Jan 2009.

We needed a big stimulus at that moment. Followed by substantial financial reform.

Congress and the WH did neither.

Both are to blame.

Nothing progressive will be done -- unless and until we have a progressive majority in Congress.

That is Job one.

[sweetapogee]

49. if you insist

be my guest. However, the incoming house is not going to give the President another big stimulus, in fact as I said the house republicans are most likely going to insist President Obama make an accounting for the stimulus already out there and this is a potential problem for the administration. If you are correct, then the President will have two less accomplishments to run on making a primary challenge even more likely and defeat a higher possibility.

One other things creon, it is my considered opinion that we are not on the same wavelength in this discussion.

Take care my friend,
SA

[JVS]

44. EVAN BAYH TO THE RESCUE!

[Jennicut]

46. Ugg. I hate to say it but I think Obama is more likely to be challenged on the right by

a conservadem or an independent like Bloomburg then on the left.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

48. Tick-Toc baby!

[OZark Dem]

51. Why did you say YOUR primary challenger ?????

[CakeGrrl]

52. Because not everyone on this board wants one?

Shockingly, opinions still vary on DU.

[OZark Dem]

53. I have not been happy, but I didn't want a primary until this week

Normally I have always felt like I had a clue to what was going on, but I must finally admit this Administration baffles me.

[bigwillq]

56. There won't be

a major primary challenger to Obama in 2012.