Private sector employment rises by 93,000 in November, biggest gain in 3 years

[Clio the Leo]

U.S. Nov. ADP employment up 93,000
Dec. 1, 2010, 8:18 a.m. EST
By Ruth Mantell

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Private-sector employment rose 93,000 in November, the largest gain in three years, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.'s employment report released Wednesday. Employment in the service-producing sector gained 79,000, while the employment in the goods-producing sector rose 14,000. On Friday the government will report on employment for November, and economists polled by MarketWatch expect a gain of 155,000 for nonfarm payrolls, and for the unemployment rate to remain at 9.6%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-nov-adp-employment-up-93000-2010-12-01-818410?reflink=MW_news_stmp

[SpiralHawk]

1. "Eeeeeek. This is horrible. Whine." - Republicon Homelanders

[Clio the Leo]

6. And not JUST the Republicans. ;-) nt

[Tuesday Afternoon]

2. mostly service jobs....I bet they are mostly part time w/ no bennies.

and that last prediction.............I am not going to hold my breath.

And 9.6% is an insult to my intelligence. Unemployment in my area is 11.3%

[JNelson6563]

4. Your area is a tiny fraction of a huge country.

I have no doubt the real number is higher but not because certain areas have higher number therefore they must be lying about the math. No, it's because all of those who are collecting unemployment aren't counted.

Julie

[Tuesday Afternoon]

8. thanks for just adding to the prove of my point:

all of those who are collecting unemployment aren't counted.

and what happens to the number when the extension is cut off........................

it will go down right....because those numbers will no longer be drawing.

it is to laugh.

[108]

9. hense the reason why the GOP won't allow extensions

it helps them to have a higher unemployment number

[Tuesday Afternoon]

10. no shit. we are so screwed. all except the top 2%

[ProSense]

3. ADP: Private Employment increased by 93,000 in November

ADP: Private Employment increased by 93,000 in November

by CalculatedRisk

ADP reports:

Private-sector employment increased by 93,000 from October to November on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from September to October was revised up from the previously reported increase of 43,000 to an increase of 82,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report shows an acceleration of employment and suggests the nation’s employment situation is brightening somewhat. November’s gain in private-sector employment is the largest in three years. This is the tenth consecutive month of gains, which have averaged 47,000 during that period. Nevertheless, employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which likely will remain above 9% for all of 2011.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

The consensus was for ADP to show an increase of about 68,000 private sector jobs in November, so this was above consensus.

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 145,000 payroll jobs in November, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 9.6%.

[FBaggins]

5. Wait for Friday. The key here is "according to ADP"

ADP has a lousy track record with this series. The real number could be significantly better or worse than this figure.

[Clio the Leo]

7. And I think it will be better....

.... we've seen (what?) 5 out of the last 6 weeks worth of new jobless claims below 450,000 ... that's the longest positive streak (as much as you can call it that) since 9/08.

[FBaggins]

11. That's the market's expectation as well.

we've seen (what?) 5 out of the last 6 weeks worth of new jobless claims below 450,000

Sounds right. But keep in mind that (historically), we tend to see net job loses when that number is greater than 400k.

[ProSense]

12. "ADP has a lousy track record with this series. "

It's still ADP's track record and these reports which have been produced for decades. However reliable they were when the news was bad, they're equally reliable when they show an improvement, especially the biggest improvement in three years.

[FBaggins]

13. "These reports" have *NOT* been produced for decades.

The report is, in fact, quite new (a few years).

However reliable they were when the news was bad

Your point being that any improvement is a good thing. That's because your assumption is that they must be off by a fairly consistent amount and (more importantly) in a fairly consistent direction.

That's not the case. They've had months where they expected a really positive number and there was a big surprise to the downside... AND they've had months where they expected a lousy number and it turned out to be spectacular instead.

When I say they have a "lousy track record" - I mean that they tell us almost nothing about what the real series will reveal on Friday. They could be spot on... but they could easily be off significantly in either direction.

[ProSense]

15. "Your point being that any improvement is a good thing. "

Any improvement is a good thing?

This is the best report in three years?

In terms of your point, when the BLS report showed that jobs were finally being created, even 20,000, that was a damn good thing.

So yes, improvement is a good thing.

If you can show where improvement is a bad thing, I'd like to see it.

[FBaggins]

17. Improvement is of course a good thing.

My point was that improvement in the ADP number is not proof of actual improvement.

In terms of your point, when the BLS report showed that jobs were finally being created, even 20,000, that was a damn good thing.

Of course it was. But that's the BLS report, not ADP.

I'm not questioning that things have been getting better... I've been saying that for months. ALL I'm saying is that the ADP number is next to worthless and we should wait for the real number that comes out later this week.

This is the best report in three years?

Is it? And on a report that's only 4-5 years old... how useful is that?

[GSLevel9]

20. look at that graph! The Clinton years ROCKED! nt

[FBaggins]

22. Welll duh!

Anyone who lived through the period remembers that much.

Think he's willing to come back? He did pretty well with a Republican congress.

[FBaggins]

18. See what I mean?

The BLS report came out just a bit ago and you can see that there's little correlation between either the actual number OR the direction it traveled.

[babylonsister]

14. rec'd despite all the naysayers. :) nt

[girl gone mad]

16. I'll wait..

for the inevitable downward revisions.

[Safetykitten]

19. 9.8% unemployment. Fighting a losing battle to keep it under 10

[WI_DEM]

21. Yes, Obama has created more jobs than Bush did in 8-years, but

when it comes down to it if unemployment rate stays stubbornly high in 2012 if it's 9% or more still, then all the GOP would need to do is say "hey, when Obama came in the rate was 7.7% and look what it's at now." The American people are too dumb to understand that the problems Bush created will take years to correct--or at least a large number of them are that dumb.