So who expects that anyone will notice or care about the "middle class" tax cuts?

[eridani]

I personally don't know a single individual who has written more than one or two checks to the IRS over an entire working lifetime. (One friend forgot to account for a conversion to a taxable IRA once.) I couldn't even tell you how my taxes have fluctuated over my working life. That's because I, like just about everyone else on wages and salaries, adjust withholding so that I always get a refund. (In my case, that means no exemptions to cover my interest income.)

I couldn't tell you without searching my file cabinet what my taxes have been over the years. Because of withholding, they are invisible. Whether I get a refund of $1200 or $800,it makes no difference to me. Both amounts are just extra money that are of exactly the same order of magnitude.

You do realize that Obama has already given everyone a tax cut, right? Why did that have no effect on the 2010 election? Most people who voted for Repukes would swear that their taxes had been raised, because they "know" that that's just what Democrats do. The simple fact is that the tax cut just added to the deficit and had no perceptible effects on peoples' lives at all.

Attitudes toward taxation have never, ever borne any relationship to the reality of what people actually pay. Either you think they are a good idea because you have to pay for public goods, or they are a bad idea because public goods benefitting anyone other than old conservative white people are evil by nature.

Just this year, WA State voters strongly opposed an initiative that would have put a 3% tax on income over $200K ($400K for couples, including civil unions) mainly because opponents convinced them it would lead to an income tax for everyone. Never mind that if we did have a progressive income tax applying to everyone that 80% of the population would pay significantly less. In fact, the more likely you would be to benefit from an income tax plus a greatly reduced sales tax, the more you oppose that.

WA has an atrociously regressive tax system, and the people who get hit the worst (17% taxation rate for the lowest income brackets) just don't give a shit one way or another. What a sales tax means to them is if you buy some hair conditioner on sale for $1.29, you pay $1.42 at the checkout stand. Big whoop. I have yet to hear of anyone at any income level who saves all their receipts and adds up all their sales tax for a year.

If Obama is expecting gratitude from anyone, fuggedaboudit. All people will notice is more foreclosures, persistently high unemployment, outright hunger among the 99ers whose benefits will NOT be extended by the compromise, more people on food stamps and general economic stagnation and social breakdown. This is utterly predictable, as our current economy is every bit as jobless as the two recoveries in the 00s were. That decade's disaster was caused by the very tax cuts that Obama is so insistent on extending.

[eleny]

1. kr

[denem]

2. Facts don't matter any more - Only the media narrative.

If it's spun as a success, it is a success - the only other thing that matters is the economy.

If it's hard to make ends meet, 'Tax Cuts' sounds good. That's about it.

Remember "Shift and Shaft" - Cut Taxes - Shift the Fiancial Burden onto the States and Local Councils - Shaft the people who depend on them. As financial distress mounts, promise another round of 'Tax Cuts'

[pnwmom]

11. What about the fact that without a new bill, when the current law expires,

all working Americans will see smaller paychecks in their envelopes starting January 1? What about the fact that Obama promised that he wouldn't let that happen?

[denem]

13. That's 2012's election

[pnwmom]

22. That's something that takes effect January 1, 2011. n/t

[denem]

32. I was presuming the bill will pass into law by years end.

[eridani]

25. They'll notice the first time. But it will have no effect on their budget planning

I certainly don't let small fluctuations (either up or down) affect my decisions to spend major chunks of change.

[eridani]

27. And you are forgetting--

--that people have already seen their pay increase slightly under Obama, and that they didn't give a shit one way or another.

[pnwmom]

33. True. They take increases for granted. But they would blame him

for any decrease.

[pnwmom]

31. A 50% difference in taxes is not a small fluctuation.

Not to those with a small income.

[eridani]

39. It is precisely for those of lower income that 50% is a small fluctiation

If your total tax liability is $60, $90 is not a big deal. That amounts to $3.50 out of a biweekly paycheck.

[pnwmom]

45. People who pay at the 10% level owe more than $60 dollars a year.

What a crock.

[eridani]

48. Ir's right out of my own tax return last year. n/t

[ProSense]

3. Wait

"All people will notice is more foreclosures, persistently high unemployment, outright hunger among the 99ers whose benefits will NOT be extended by the compromise, more people on food stamps and general economic stagnation and social breakdown. "

They wouldn't notice their paychecks getting smaller and their unemployment expiring?

The notion that the President is doing this to screw up the economy even more defies logic.

[theaocp]

6. ...and yet, here we are.

Feeling that cognitive dissonance yet?

[eridani]

10. People tend to notice SIGNIFICANT changes in their paychecks

Do you even know yourself how your tax rates have fluctuate over the years? I certainly don't. Over the past 30 years I remember a particularly awful one with a net income for 2 of around $7K, and how much nicer it was to have a middle class job paying $70 with benefits. I never gave a shit about the tax bill from the bad year compared to the good year. While I was working, changes in FICA would quickly be rendered irrelevant, the way cost of living salary increases were rendered irrelevant--I just adjusted my 401k accordingly so that takehome pay remained about the same.

[pnwmom]

16. You don't think a 50% increase is significant?

That is what people at the lowest levels will face. The current bottom rate is 10%. So a new 15% bottom rate means a 50% increase. And yes, people will notice that. You don't have much confidence in low-income people if you don't think they'll notice that.

[eridani]

35. A 50% increase for me is about $60 per year for me.

And yes, I do consider that insignificant.

[pnwmom]

46. For millions of others at the 10% level, a 50% increase is very significant.

Are you talking about getting back $60 in a refund? I'm talking about the amounts that are taken out by automatic deductions. Those amounts will increase by 50%. This has nothing to do with how much a person gets back in a refund.

For example, take a person making $20,000 who is currently paying at the 10% level. He's paying more than $160 a month in income taxes. If the cuts expire, he will be paying more than $240 a month in income taxes. OF COURSE he's going to notice the increase.

[Milo_Bloom]

50. Why can't people be honest about this stuff?

The 10% bracket is ONLY ON THE FIRST 8K OF INCOME.

Your example assumes they are paying 10% on the entire 20K, which isn't the case.

The entire increase will be a TOTAL of $400 over the course of the year $7.00 per week.

[eridani]

57. That's bullshit. If single and not eligible for Make Work Pay, he's paying $88/month

If he's married with one kid and total family income is $20K, he has zero tax liability ($11,400 standard married couple deduction plus 3 exemptions at $3650 each).

[eridani]

58. You could consult a tax table. If you had, you'd know that individuals

--get a standard deduction of $5700, and married couples $11,400. In addition, each person in the family gets an exemption of $3650. You pay taxes on what is left over after subtracting all that, so cut the crap about multiplying someone's gross income by 0.1.

[Milo_Bloom]

49. It is completley insignificant...

Because you are talking about people who (after standard deductions) pay almost no taxes to begin with!!

You literally are talking about increases of SINGLE DOLLARS PER WEEK.

[abelenkpe]

23. The 99ers will still see their unemployment expire

The very bottom of the working poor will see their taxes go up.

Moody's want to downgrade the US from it's aaa rating. Robert Reich and many many other economists have written several articles explaining how this tax cut deal will be bad for the economy, but whatever....

[pnwmom]

29. If the current law is allowed to expire without a new bill taking its place,

the working poor will see a 50% increase in their taxes, as the lowest rate goes from 10% to 15%.

[quakerboy]

54. Plus the UI extension will expire

11 months before the next election. Thus presenting a situation where we must compromise literally anything else the pubs want, seeing as there wont be the bush tax cuts on the table. Perhaps further reducing the estate tax? Perhaps doing away with the capitol gains tax? The mind boggles at the possibilities.

Its a great day to be a Republican. They've got a clear shot to get the benefit of enacting the policies of their patrons, without any of the blame when they harm most citizens.

[Crazy Dave]

4. I don't see a Social Security or Disability cost of living increase either

Just so the rich can buy their loved ones a Lexus for Christmas this year and the next two years.

[Cant trust em]

5. People don't judge their tax burden based on their refund.

They judge it based on the size of their paychecks throughout the year. When taxes go up and your paycheck that used to be $1500 is now $1440, you notice.

[eridani]

14. Except that the difference is going to be much smaller

And people at the lower end of the wage spectrum just got their taxes raised.

[pnwmom]

7. Without a new bill, their paychecks will be SMALLER. You don't think they'll notice?

Millions of the lowest income people now having 10% in automatic income tax deductions would instead have 15% taken out -- a 50% increase. Millions more would owe taxes who until now had only been getting refunds. You don't think they'd notice that?

And at the other end of the spectrum, millions of households making $75K (comfortable, but not rich) were about to become subject to the alternative minimum tax -- but the bill will stop that from happening, at least for the next two years. Those people won't notice anything -- but they would if they suddenly were stuck with the alternative minimum rates.

[JoePhilly]

8. WRONG.

1) Only ~8% of Americans know that Obama gave them a tax cut, the media ensured that.

2) The question for the middle class will not be whether they got to KEEP this tax cut ... but whether their own personal tax went UP!!!! PERIOD. If their taxes went up, their pay goes down, and the media will be HAPPY to explain that Obama BROKE his PROMISE to NOT raise taxes on those making under $250,000. Your review of your own returns helps to make my point. You apparently don't know how much you actually paid in any given year. Your refund does not reflect on what you paid, just on what, if anything you OVERPAID. Most people are like you, they do not know what they paid last year, and they don't know what % rate you've paid. What people will do is listen to the media on this, and they will blame Obama.

3) The middle class does not care AT ALL about the DEFICIT. Far too abstract a concept.

[eridani]

17. If the tax cut had actually been significant, it wouldn't matter what the media said

It doesn't matter what Obama does--the media will blame him anyway. That is why it is so utterly devastating for him to never, ever challenge the right wing frames.

I don't care about the deficit either--I just know that it is going to be an excuse to totally eviscerate what is left of our safety net.

[Hello_Kitty]

18. When I was phonebanking and canvassing for this past election I heard about it all the time

People care about it because they've been told by hair-on-fire newsmodels that they're supposed to. That said, I agree that it's more complex than most people understand and if the jobs situation improved they'd be less inclined to care.

[bbinacan]

9. I've written checks to the IRS

numerous times.

[eridani]

12. You are a pretty small minority in that case

If you want to minimize withholding and wind up paying something at the end of your tax year, that's your lookout. Most people don't do that.

[slackmaster]

24. Letting the IRS act as your savings account at 0% interest is not a prudent strategy

It's your money, of course.

[bbinacan]

26. I'd rather write a check

than get a refund because I have the use of MY money during the year. Anyone who intentionally sets up for a refund knows nothing about financial planning.

[tavalon]

59. Yep

I always try to guestimate so I pay some. This year, though, I had an HSA and FSA so I wasn't sure what to withhold, so I will get a refund but I'll adjust based on that. Refunds are bad money management.

[Hello_Kitty]

15. I'm poor so the majority of the tax I pay is sales. It's at 9% here in Phoenix.

They're even taxing food now.

[pnwmom]

19. When the current law expires, you might well owe higher taxes.

The tax law changes in 2001 and 2003 took many low income earners off the books entirely. Millions of them will be back to owing taxes unless something is done. Others, at the lowest level of taxation, will have their taxes go up 50% (from 10% to 15%)

[Hello_Kitty]

28. With the compromise my taxes will go up about $200 but thanks for your concern

I'll never go off the tax rolls because I'm not a parent so I don't get most of the deductions. Shoot, if my income ever went to $0 in a given year I'm sure they'd find some way to fine me.

[pnwmom]

34. The other important question is what would they go up without

a compromise? For a person at the lowest income level, they would go up 50%.

[Hello_Kitty]

38. Oh god not that bullshit again. Is that all you guys have?

The tax cuts aren't going to expire.

How much is your tax cut gonna be? Must be nice.

[pnwmom]

42. Wishful thinking. The tax cuts WILL expire on January 1, 2011.

If no compromise bill is passed before then, automatic payroll deductions will increase as of that date. At the low end of income, the deductions will increase by 50%.

[eridani]

20. Same for Seattle. And people just massively voted down an attempt

--to have a fairer tax structure.

[slackmaster]

21. I think you and your friends don't understand cash flow very well

I aim for writing a small check to the IRS every year, enough withholding to avoid a penalty.

The increase of the 25% bracket to 28% would hit me very noticeably. If I stay the course I'll see about a $200 per month reduction in my take-home pay. It wouldn't kill me, but it would affect my quality of life and my ability to save for semi-retirement, which according to my present plan is about eight years in the future.

If that happens I am considering increasing my 401k contribution rate by enough to ensure that the IRS doesn't see another nickel from me in the short run.

[eridani]

41. I understand it well enough to have not lost so much as a red cent during the meltdown

Not chasing after the highest potential rates of return has some benefits.

[slackmaster]

51. You have to sell an investment to realize a loss

I haven't lost anything either.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[eridani]

36. We had that rate on high earners in the 40s and 50s, much to our benefit n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Most Folks Get Their Taxes Withheld So They Would Know Immediately

I'd ask my boss if my pay check was off ten cents.

[eridani]

40. Yes. And they wouldn't care. They didn't care about the small increase

--that Obama has already given them. AFter the first paycheck, the only thing that matters is general improvement in their lives and the economy as a whole, which this agreement has just totally fucked up.

[pnwmom]

43. They WOULD care if their paycheck is smaller, and a 50% tax increase

is not a small amount. People at the lower income levels notice every dollar. My first job paid $6,000 a year and I counted on my paycheck being stable -- not decreasing by ANY amount.

[eridani]

47. If you earn $6K, you have no tax liability, even if you are single

A 50% increase in 0 is still zero. Besides which, actual low income earners are going to be paying more anyway because they threw out Make Work Pay.

My extra tax liability would be $60 a year, and I don't give a flying fuck about keeping it if those sociopaths at the top would pay their share.

[FrenchieCat]

44. self delete

[Zavulon]

52. I save all my receipts and add up the tax at the end of the year.

Every cent counts to me, because I lost my job and the search goes poorly. Sales taxes and every other tax I'm subjected to is too high as it is. I could not afford taxes going up, and if it means the rich get a longer break then so be it. I'm not willing to be fucking homeless just to see us stick it to the rich at the first opportunity. The idea that tax cuts mean nothing to the middle class is simply absurd.

If you think your cuts are insignificant, donate them to the IRS.

[eridani]

55. You are less than 0.1% of the population

For most low income people, adding up their sales taxes would accomplish exactly nothing except to make them feel worse. In WA State, our atrociously regressive sales tax didn't even didn't inspire them to vote for a high earner's income tax that really would have benefitted them.

Yes, I think that $60 is insignificant. Doesn't mean I wouldn't prefer to have it rather than not, just that plus or minus $60 has not the slightest effect on my yearly budget plans. If a fraction of a percent of your income would cause you to decide to spend a lot more money, you probably shouldn't be allowed out in public unsupervised.

[killbotfactory]

53. I would notice

My family lives paycheck to paycheck. I make too much money to qualify for state assistance, too little to be able to save or pay all our bills on time. We can't afford to lose any amount of income right now, no matter how much "progressives" dismiss it as insignificant.

[eridani]

56. If you're that badly off, you have no tax liability in the first place. Secondly

-- if you pay income tax at all, the compromise is going to RAISE your taxes if you are badly off enough to benefit from Make Work Pay, which was eliminated.