Survey USA gives Obama boost following Bin Laden death

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

Just last month, Pres. Obama's job approval among Washington state residents was 49 percent. Overnight, it jumped to 55 percent.

gains with dems and indies - GOP, as predicted, remaining stubborn

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=925127f5-50a0-4d8c-82b9-6279e5847dc0

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Love that imagery! LOL!

[aaaaaa5a]

3. The poll is garbage… did you see the cross-tabs?

In the poll the racial mixup was

82% white
3% black
6% hispanic
10% asian

There were so few blacks in the survey, the sample wasn't large enough to break down how they voted. In the same survey, 54% of whites approved of the President. So did 60% of asians. But only 43% of hispanics?

Just for the record, to show you off their sample was….

In the 2008 Presidential election, on election day the racial mixup was

74% white
13% black
9% hispanic
4% asian

In fact given the population sample, the Presidents poll number is actually very good.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

4. good catch

it was the first one i saw. more will be on the way. gallup says their numbers will begin reflecting today's mood on Thursday

[aaaaaa5a]

5. I think we should see the first signs tomorrow.

Gallup works on a rolling 3 day average. So Monday was an average of Obama's polling results for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For Tuesday's number, Friday's tally fall off. Therefore Tuesday will be the average for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Monday will be the first day Gallup has done any polling since the Bin Laden news hit.


However, with tomorrows number the news would have only hit a 3rd of the vote tally. On Wednesday 2/3rds of the tally will be affected. And by Thursday, all 3 polling days will be post Bin Laden's death, giving us the "bump" number.

It should be noted that even once Gallup has completed all of its surveys post Bin Laden's death, it will likely be the weekend before a finally "bump" number can be given. Not everyone follows the news the way the people on this board do. I have found that it can actually take up to a week, for even a big story, to sink in with the American electorate.

[karynnj]

8. They might break out the Monday number as a seperate value

in their analysis - not the rolling average. I have seen them do that in the past. The last three points in the 4 day moving average were 43, 45, 46, 46. The new date added between the first two points was April 27 - when Obama put out his birth certificate - which looks like it created a small lift. (All the points starting with April 10 thru April 26 were between 42 and 44.)

The last point there included all data after the birth certificate was out. If Gallup does not split out Monday, we can heuristically try to back out what Monday was assuming that the Saturday and Sunday averaged 46. Then we can "solve" for Monday as:

3*X - 92, where X is the new rolling average point. ie if it is 47, the President's Monday approval would be around 49; 48, the President's Monday approval was around 52%, if it is 49, the President's Monday number was around 55%.

[karynnj]

7. It is not bad - it is for Washington state, not the nation

[karynnj]

6. It is reasonably close to the state's 3.9% black, 83.9% white

This was a poll in Washington state - not national. Here is a link to the census demographics - http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/53000.html (The breakdown is not defined the same way, but it does not look like they went out of their way to bias it. (Hispanic might be low, but that might be because they have a higher percent not registered voters.)

[aaaaaa5a]

9. My bad… I thought the poll was for the nation. Good call. NT

[MercuryRepeater]

10. so, in other words, his approval rating is even higher.

[DCBob]

11. I think this is the Trump bump.. the OBL bump is yet to come.

:bounce: