anyone here a fan of lichtman's 13 keys to the presidency? did obama just turn key #11?

[unblock]

is the capture of bin laden a significant enough military success to turn key #11?
it's hardly a d-day-esque victory; but the way it was trumpeted as a major goal for a decade, it ain't peanuts either.

by my count republicans have a lock on #1, having won a house majority, but there are NO OTHER KEYS where they are a favorite to win. i'm not saying obama's got the other 12 locked up, but things are looking VERY good for obama at this stage.

thoughts?



The 13 Keys to The White House

The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party (currently the Democrats) wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party (the Republicans) wins.

Key 1 - Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Key 2 - Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Key 3 - Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Key 4 - Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Key 5 - Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Key 6 - Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Key 7 - Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Key 8 - Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Key 9 - Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Key 10 - Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Key 11 - Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Key 12 - Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Key 13 - Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[Pirate Smile]

1. Hell YES! Obama turned key #11.

[demwing]

2. Heres how I score this - Obama (8)

TRUE (8)

Key 2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Key 3 Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Key 6 Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Key 7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Key 9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Key 10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Key 11 Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Key 13 Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero


FALSE (2)

Key 1 Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Key 5 Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.



UNCLEAR (3)

Key 4 Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

(Tea Party???)

Key 8 Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

(Tea Party???)

Key 12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

(Charismatic, but also polarizing)

[unblock]

4. we're not in a recession, nor are we likely to be in one during the campaign

the tea party is not a third party but a minor rebranding of a faction that fits squarely within the republican party.

and social unrest? hardly. some manufactured t.v. coverage of a few sparsely attended equally manufactured events is hardly anything like the social unrest of the '60s.

i'll agree that obama's charisma is questionable. he clearly had it during his 2008 campaign, but he's kinda lost his mojo while busy running the country. but if he gets back into form, he's likely to regain it. contrast this with clinton, or reagan, both of whom had charisma throughout. then again, neither was ever NOT in campaign mode.

[demwing]

9. Explanations

I'm erring on the side of caution.


AGAINST INCUMBENT SUCCESS

Key 1. Party Mandate: We lost the House.

Key 5. Short term economy: Officially, the recession ended in mid 2009, but with unemployment still very high, there is a possibility of a double-dip occurring before the election. Even if we don't have an "official" recession, the current, general, short-term economic situation in the US plays against Obama.


UNCLEAR

Key 4. Third party: The Tea Party may not be a real third party, but they play one on TV. As far as the MSM is concerned, the Tea Party is reported on as if they were a third party, and they seem to be having a similar impact on US Politics as a legitimate, separate, movement.

Key 8. Social unrest: This is a tricky one. We have LOTS of social unrest in America. See Wisconsin, soon to be Michigan, and Florida. Recall movements sweep many states. The reason that this goes into the UNCLEAR column is that, by the standards set in the rules, social unrest should HURT the incumbent. IMO, this social unrest will get Democratic voters to the polls in droves, and help Obama. It's a weird twist, and therefore UNCLEAR. The parenthetical "(Tea Party???)" was a format mistakeke, copied from Key 4. Sorry...

Key 12. Incumbent charisma: While Obama may regain his charisma, lets be honest...a good percentage of the country is racist, and another percentage is virulently prejudice against Dems, regardless of race. Finally, Obama has lost some of his glow to Independent voters. I think Key 12 is a wash - neither hurting nor helping Obama.

So Obama has 8 Keys (maybe 10, but definitely 8). I agree that as it stands, he'll win, and if the economy recovers and unemployment dips beneath 7% nationwide, he'll win big.

[unblock]

11. part of the question is what constitutes "social unrest" or "military success", etc.

there's always some level of demonstrations, and i think for most of the keys lichtman's standards are pretty high.
the d-day success was counted as a military success, and the hippie activism of the 1960's was counted as social unrest.

killing bin laden and the tea party pale by comparison, but i don't know if those are "big enough" to count. some of his keys aren't entirely objective....


in any event, i'll agree that there are a few keys obama doesn't have a lock on, but for now it's looking VERY good.

[Pab Sungenis]

3. I count four keys set to "false" right now.

1, 5, 8, and 9. Any of those could change, as could a few others.

[unblock]

5. 1, yes; 5 & 8 no; 9 -- what?

#1 sure, can't argue with that.
#5 we're not technically in a recession, though the growth is not well distributed at all. but by lichtman's measure (gdp) we're not in a recession.
#8 i don't see significant social unrest. the tea party is a joke in terms of social unrest.
#9 scandal? what scandal? sure, it could happen, never know, but there's nothing now that remotely registers as a scandal.

[Pab Sungenis]

8. Oops, sorry.

I copied the numbers wrong. I forget which one I had as the fourth, but it was NOT scandal.

[starroute]

6. These are attempt to generalize from recent elections, not eternal truths

It looks like Lichtman went through 20th century elections in which incumbent parties had lost, tried to find the major reasons why, and then turned it into a list.

The Great Depression explains why Hoover lost in 1932. Vietnam and domestic riots explain why the Democrats lost in 1968. Watergate explains why the GOP lost in 1976. Teddy Kennedy's primary challenge and Reagan's greater charisma explain why Carter lost in 1980. The Perot candidacy helps explain why Bush Sr. lost in 1992.

But the thing is that all of those were special, almost unique events. They weren't necessarily anything that you can turn into "keys" and then count even so-so versions of them as universal principles.

Looking at the list, the only things that might derail an Obama victory are major continuing economic problems (though the GOP lack of interest in actually doing anything about the economy might cancel out even that) and the emergence of a super-charismatic GOP candidate (but there are none on the horizon).

This is why the GOP keeps trying to paint Obama as weak, ineffectual, or out of touch. They know that as long as he is perceived as generally strong and capable, they have no chance. And while I don't like a lot of the decisions he's made, many of them are clearly aimed at maintaining that perception.

[demwing]

10. I believe that the Iranian Hostage situation buried Carter

more than any other issue.

I think the Ted Kennedy challenge has been over-emphasized, probably to scare off challenges to the established order.

[vaberella]

7. He did 11 a few times. Speech in Cairo, the Pirates, and OBL.

Not to mention he turned a few others above.

[Exilednight]

12. Not many turned keys, but still plenty of oppurtunites. How I score it is ..........

Key 1 - Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

We not only lost seats, we lost the majority. Not turned.

Key 2 - Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Too soon to tell. This really depends on who the Republicans nominate.

Key 3 - Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Good key to have.

Key 4 - Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Again, it is too soon to tell. Probably not, but as the 2000 election taught us, it doesn't have to be a significant independent. Gore's loss in Fl was by a total of a little over 600 votes. Many Democrats like to blame Nader, but truth if the truth is to be told, 4 left leaning candidates received more votes than what Gore lost by.

Key 5 - Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Too many people unemployed. Not turned.

Key 6 - Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

This is a debate that is currently under way. If Obama adopts the liberal caucus plan, then the electorate will have considered this key turned. Any compromise between the Obama plan the Ryan plan will considered a failure. Not Turned, and doubtful that it will be.

Key 7 - Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

This is a difficult one, but many do see major changes in national policy, but many do not see them as positive changes from both the left and the right. Not turned.

Key 8 - Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Nothing major, and I doubt this will change. Key turned.

Key 9 - Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Again, nothing major. Key turned.

Key 10 - Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Yes, still have troops in Iraq and plans for Afghanistan are currently uncertain not to mention no end game in Libya. Not turned.

Key 11 - Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Yes. Osama killed, early pirate operation.

Key 12 - Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Charismatic? Yes. National hero? No. Partial Turn.

Key 13 - Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Unknown.