So Trump is out, Huck is out...

[RedSpartan]

Palin, Paul and Bachman have no chance... probably the same with Romney after his recent speech/WSJ flogging...

Maybe I'm looking into this too much, but it seems to me that with Newt (a big, well-known name if nothing else) officially running, other so-called potential nominees may drop out or not run - - in essence letting Newt be the sacrificial lamb to be slaughtered by Obama.

That is, despite all the "Obama is the worst President in history" and "most important election of our lifetime" rhetoric, they know they can't win in 2012 and will save their ammo for 2016. (Exhibit A: Chris Christie)

What do you think? Am I way off base?

[Renew Deal]

1. It's early. Romney has a chance and don't count out Pawlenty

Pawlenty is a good choice if the republicans want the facade of seriousness.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. T-Paw!

:woohoo:


:eyes:



And doesn't "M-Rom" sound a lot like "moron?" :shrug:

[Travelman]

3. I'm keeping an eye on Herman Cain

He seemed to get a lot of attention at that debate, and that was in South Carolina. Not sure if he'll keep the momentum, but if he does, I think he might wind up being the nominee. He has the advantage of no baggage, unlike pretty much all the rest of them. Of course, that also means he has no experience, so that could wind up blowing up in his face before January. If he survives to Super Tuesday, though, I think the guy is pretty formidable.

If he doesn't make it past South Carolina, though, I suspect you're right about Newt being a sacrificial lamb.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. In the summer of '07, Paul was the major flavor of the weak for Republicans...

Remember his massive money bomb in 2007 that was supposed to make him a contender?

I see Cain as the new Paul - loyal support, but no reality of growing beyond 5% nationally.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

15. but it's Jeb!

[Faygo Kid]

4. The field is open. It could be Lee Mercer's year.

Just update the site, Lee, and you can win the nod. Who here can possibly deny the continuing need to regulate government sleepers?
http://www.mercerforpresident2008.com/

[Brother Buzz]

9. Member of the Eye Spy Community-Military Intelligence. All Three!

:rofl:

[alsame]

5. Maybe they'll run Bob Dole again. nt

[BlueStater]

6. I hope Palin takes a cue from them.

Please? Pretty please?

[Life Long Dem]

7. I see Newt and Romney going at it.

And maybe some unknown jumping in before it's all said and done. Palin is looking for the money, and Bachman isn't known very well, and Paul doesn't have the media's rock star status.

[AtomicKitten]

8. Romney for the primary win (and then loss to Pres O in the GE).

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. good enough

[LynneSin]

11. The powers to be in the GOP do not want to waste time running a presidential campaign in 2012

They would rather use their time and effort to secure the Senate and strengthen the control in the house. Hold it for 2014 and then get the presidency in 2016.

Right now the 'Bush Brothers' of 2011 are those asshole governors who all just got elected - Walker, Kasich, Scott, Daniels, Christie. They are all being groomed to be the real candidate in 2016.

Mark my word on it

[RedSpartan]

12. Agree 100%

And link to your post on the subject (hope it works):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x674561

[totodeinhere]

13. I hope Newt does get the nomination. President Obama would take him in a cake walk. n/t

[SadPanda]

14. I fully expect them to run Jeb Bush in 2016...

They are addicted to that family.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. prob 2012

[rury]

18. I'm a little apprehensive that Huntsman or Daniels

will get in this summer, one one of them will emerge as the nominee and garner of lot of Independent votes.
That could make the election terrifyingly close.
I hope I'm wrong and I plan to work REALLY hard on winning a second term for President Obama!!!!

[craigmatic]

19. You're pretty much on point except that mittens will be the sacrificial lamb next year.

[davidpdx]

20. I think you have a good point

Paul will definitely stay in and run until there is a nominee. Cain's campaign will be much like Paul, some support and funding, but not enough to gain traction. My guess (and up to now I've been 100% correct with guessing both Huckabee and Trump wouldn't run) would be that Palin and Bachmann wouldn't run. Palin has the same affliction as Huckabee: love for money. Bachmann I would have to guess would have a negative approval rating if you looked at all types of voters, therefore she is unelectable for president.

I think Romney is in and will stay in.

So you have Romney, Gingrich and Pawlenty right now as the major candidates (forget Paul, Cain and Johnson)

The question then becomes what about Daniels, Huntsman and Santorum.

Given the number of people bowing out, I think Santorum is more likely to run. Daniels and Huntsman are wildcards.

Now personally I'd love to see the field stick to the three stooges already running. If that is the case, my money is on T-paw to win the nomination.

Does anyone notice what is missing in this field? Diversity (no women or minorities). Shocking isn't it?

[totodeinhere]

21. Cain is an African American of course. So at least for the time being there is a minority in the

field. And if some people have their way there will be a Latino on the ticket, Rubio.

[davidpdx]

22. True I forgot about that, so they do have one minority candidate

I don't think Rubio will run. If anything, he may be a VP candidate for whomever wins the nomination.

[totodeinhere]

24. I agree that Rubio won't run. I meant that he might be on the ticket as the VP

candidate. Then if the ticket loses, which is likely, that might very well put Rubio in line for the 2016 nomination. I know that's a long ways off, but if that happens watch out.

[tweeternik]

23. Romney still seems like their best "choice" ...

and if they're smart enough to put a Rubio on the ticket as Veep, they might even make it competetive but, my money would still be on Obama.

[Blasphemer]

25. Yes, they know

Romney will be at the top of the ticket if he expects it to be his last hurrah (i.e. not waiting around for 2016). They want a sacrificial lamb but not a bloodbath (i.e. Palin, Trump, Bachman) so they need someone that can at least give the appearance of having a chance and win a few polls along the way (a la McCain).

[craigmatic]

26. There's only 4 of them with a chance of winning the nomination: Bachman, Mittens, Pawlenty, and

Daniels. Chances are their VP pick will come from the same group too.