2011 is very similar to 1983

[scheming daemons]

We had just come out of a period in which unemployment had hit 10% and was gradually starting to trend back downward.

The economic stagflation of the late 70s led to a pretty severe recession in '81-'82. Everyone was talking about how an Asian country was about to become the next economic superpower and surpass the United States. (in 1983, it was Japan instead of China).

A President that absolutely drove the opposition party bonkers was in office, but for some reason the population still really liked the guy - even those that disagreed with his policies. Except for a rabid few who considered him the anti-christ.

The best the opposition party could come up with to run against the President was a retread has-been that the general voting public never really warmed up to.

As 1983 turned to 1984, the economic recovery continued. Unemployment came down to about 7.5% and the sitting President ran on a platform of "Morning in America" again.



Obama is going to win in a landslide in 2012, and the reasons are thus:

- In their hearts, the American people generally like the guy. Even those that are disappointed in his policy decisions have a fondness for him personally.

- The economic calamity that we were experiencing when he came into office has begun to subside. Companies are hiring... last month, 23 states saw their unemployment rate go down and only 3 saw it go up (the rest stayed the same).

- The opposition party doesn't have a single candidate running that the people would consider "presidential". When it is all said and done, they will settle on a retread has-been that nobody really loves - Mitt Romney.

- Constituencies that stay home during midterm elections, but who turn out for presidential elections, are overwhelmingly pro-Obama. African-Americans, Latinos, young people. They stayed home in 2010, but they'll vote in 2012.

- The demographics of the country has continued to get browner every day.



Obama is going to win nearly 400 electoral votes. He'll win 35 states. It won't be close. The popular vote will be about 54% to 46%.


The country had nowhere to go but up when he stepped into office. The Dow Jones was at 7900 on inauguration day. We were hemorraging 700,000 jobs a month. Our banking system was in shambles, and two of our three big automakers were about to go under.

Now the Dow sits at 12600. We're gaining over 200,000 jobs per month... and Chrysler and GM are thriving.



There'll be a deal concerning the debt ceiling... just like there was a deal to "save social security" during Reagan's term. And by this time next year, the question will be not whether Obama will win... but by how much and will he have coattails.


2016 is a different story... who knows who will be running for each side then. But 2012 is going to be a landslide for Obama.

[mahina]

1. Still, this is the only time the left has a voice, so we need to use it to move the conversation.

Universal single payer- health care is a human right. We are paying now, just not benefitting.

Free education K-college- invest in our capacity

Corporations are not people

Campaign finance reform

We would have a permanent majority, where now it looks like the corporations control everything and we've become something less than we used to be.

[Art_from_Ark]

2. Oh, yeah, only a "rabid few" disliked Reagan

He was so warm and wonderful, how could anyone except a "rabid few" not like him?

[WCGreen]

3. I guess I am a proud member of the Rabid Few.....

[Sirveri]

4. This must be an echo chamber since I also am a member.

[Arugula Latte]

20. I hated that mofo Reagan. He turned me into a young liberal. Proud to be among the rabid few.

[Ter]

5. Maybe, but 2012 won't be 1984

Obama will only win 40 states, not 49. Only about 450 Electoral Votes too, not 525. :)

[Exilednight]

9. RNC rules change could, and probably will, put forward a more

moderate Republican candidate. The Republican nominating process is no longer winner take all, delegates are parceled out equal to the percent of support.

A candidate could consistantly win 2nd place and win the nomination.

[yellowcanine]

12. That doesn't preclude an extremist from winning. In fact, it may make it more likely.

Given the strength of the tea party wing nuts, a tea party candidate will win delegates even moderate states. Then all it would take is a couple of moderate candidates consistently splitting the moderate vote in more conservative states and a tea party type could be positioned to actually win the nomination.

[Exilednight]

13. Tea party candidates are either going to win big, or lose big. There's nothing inbetween for them.

[eridani]

6. Great for Obama. What about Democrats in general?

I'm pretty worried about that.

[bemildred]

7. I love happy talk.

There are a number of important differences between 2011 and 1983 too, but perhaps they won't interfere with business as usual before the 2012 election.

[GSLevel9]

8. Landslide... No

This pug candidate will do better than McCain. I foresee a 2008 electoral map with Virginia and Florida and Indiana and Ohio flipping pug. Add in the extra electoral votes from the census and it'll be approx 290-295 ev for obama.

[ileus]

10. I see Obama maybe losing 3 states total.

[southernyankeebelle]

11. You paint a wonderful picture. I hope your right. I think dems are going to win big. Rep over

reached.

[Zoeisright]

14. Considering that Reagan started this mess, there are, and were, a LOT more than

a "rabid few" who hated him. Anyone with a brain and logical reasoning skills hated his guts.

[Wednesdays]

15. Well, to quote Adelai Stevenson

When someone once told him, "You'll have the vote of every thinking American," Stevenson replied, "Thank you, but I need a majority."

I'm sure Fritz Mondale could sympathize.

[jefferson_dem]

16. Morning in America...

Obama-stylie.

[davidpdx]

17. I was just in a meeting of people who are expats in South Korea

and we were discussing changes of leadership that may happen around the world (and here in Korea) and the consensus seemed to be that Obama would pretty easily win reelection.

[Bonobo]

18. Yeah, I just hope "Members Only" jackets don't come back in style! nt

[Phx_Dem]

19. The demographics not only grow "browner," they grow younger every year.

That also bodes well for Dems.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. I think it's foolish to be making these predictions a year and a half out

I think if the election were held today Obama would win marginally because of Bin Laden and because it appears that the economy is moving in the right direction. But the economy could just as easily get worse as it could get better. And if that happens we will be praying that Obama and his team can get our constituencies out to vote and convince Americans that Romney, T-Paw, Newt, Bachmann or whoever the GOP decides to nominate are not presidential material.

[elleng]

22. I think you are correct.

If the Dems get their acts together, there also should be positive movement in Congress and the Senate, but I'm less certain of this occurring. Repugs are sponsoring such disastrous programs, in the States at the moment, in particular, we should be able to undo their House majority, but we've got to challenge their changes in voter eligibility (poll taxes etc.) Rover+ will run with this, and seek to steal more elections.

[LetTimmySmoke]

23. When I first read your post, I thought it said "retard has-been...Romney"

[fujiyama]

24. I think there are similarities but major differences as well

Overall demographic trends do favor Obama as does the economic recovery, as tenuous and shaky as it may be.

But race still plays a factor, as does the constant talking points machine. Trust me, there are plenty of people out there that can easily be convinced that Mitt Romney is a smart and savvy business man that can turn around the economy. It's bullshit, but it has sold plenty well in the past and can just as likely sell next year. The same goes with Pawlenty or Huntsmann (the remaining half way sane candidates or potential candidates). The rest are batshit fucking nuts. And I have some confidence that Bachmann, Palin, and Santorum will never be president.

I can see Obama losing several states he won in '08. Indiana is the first on that list, followed by NC, FL, OH, and VA. PA is another remote possibility. Unfortunately, I don't see any real potential pick ups. I think Obama will get the states he needs especially in the SW like CO, NM, and NV. But he needs a few of the rust belt states, like a few mentioned above. And I don't think anyone should be complacent about the tough fight for those that lies ahead.