It's clear, "serious" candidates KNOW that they can't beat Obama, waiting til '16

[themaguffin]

It's also clear that the President and Democrats need to think ahead for 2016. No, that doesn't mean taking for granted, 2012.

Not at all, but it does mean that it would be extremely beneficial to have an "incumbent" whether it's a VP or top cabinet member.

I'm a big fan of Biden (he was actually my first choice and where my primary vote went) but I don't see him running, so perhaps this election cycle, it might be worth considering someone who can run in 16 with the advantage of the WH etc.

[DCBob]

1. Some think Jeb Bush may jump in at some point.

That would be interesting.

[glowing]

2. No.. Not until the Bush Recession is fixed enough by Obama that amnesia takes hold..

He won't run until 2016.. if he runs at all.

[DCBob]

3. RW media has already cleansed the Bush era... at least in the minds of Republicans.

Jebb would easily win the GOP nom if he wanted it. Beating Obama is another question.

[nxylas]

29. Not just RW media

The so-called "liberal media" has been very good at erasing peoples' memories of who started this recession.

[svpadgham]

34. I know

it seem they had people thinking it was Obama's fault before he got elected.

[still_one]

4. If huntsman runs and is able to get the nomination it would be a serious challenge. /nt

[Pisces]

5. No, don't think so. He has not star power, and he is too reasonable for the whackos.

[DCBob]

6. Huntsman might make it more interesting but..

no one can beat the Obama-the-Magnificent!

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. No it won't

It will certainly save the GOP for 2016, but that's it. Huntsman is the stalking horse for two elections down.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

41. The more I learn about this guy, the more I think not. Rachel is doing such a bang-up job! n/t

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Actions speak louder than words

Barber-OUT (He, himself said the reason was that he could not beat Obama)

Huckabee-OUT

Christie- OUT

Daniels-OUT

Thune-OUT

And I am sure I am leaving a few out

There currently is not ONE ACTIVE GOVERNOR OR SENATOR running for President. That is astounding! Clearly the know something. The metric for this race is locked in place. No, Obama will not win 60% of the vote and carry 45 states. But clearly due to changing demographics, and the GOP's move to the far right, Obama is locked in at about 52% of the vote and at least 270 electoral votes. There is nothing the GOP can do to change that in 2012. And the smart reliable candidates who want to be President and have options, know this, and thus, are waiting for 2016.

[warrior1]

8. It is so important

that not a another republican set foot in the WH ever.

[DCBob]

9. The electoral map favors Obama and even more so now with his rising popularity..

Its going to take a minor miracle for a republican to win in 2012.

[On the Road]

33. Not One

active Republican governor or senator running for President?

That is absolutely amazing. If I were a potential second-tier Republican candidate with any credibility, I would really think about getting in the race. These bozos they have now are going to be toast, and anything can happen in a year and a half. Everyone thought Bush I was unbeatable this far before the election.

[svpadgham]

35. Tough standards...

I mean being Republican AND having credibility? It just ain't going to happen unless there is a big shift in the Republicans' collective mindset.

[Hell-A Liberal]

37. Very true...after all

if Obama is soooo terrible, they should be "running" over one another for the Presidency. If he is such a disaster, why the hesitation?

[mucifer]

10. It's WAY too early for this kinda prediction.

Where was Obama in 2007?
Didya really think he was gonna be president in 2008?

I'm thinking not too many people took Barack Hussein Obama seriously as a candidate in May of 2007.

[DCBob]

12. I did.. I signed the original petitition to persude Obama to run.

Also, there are no "Obama's" in the Republican party.. they have all been neutered by the Teabaggers.

[aaaaaa5a]

13. Good point but here is the difference

In 2006, if you recall, every Democrat in America was getting read to run for President. We must have had a field of 10-12 legit candidates by now. We had acting Senators and Governors running. Jon Edwards had been campaigning in Iowa for a full year. Both HIllary Clinton and Obama were months into their campaigns at this point.

The reason…. the Democrats knew they could win. The nomination meant something. There was a legit chance they could be President.


This time around…. that is not the case. If the GOP thought their nomination would yelled the Presidency, Christie, Daniels, Thune, etc. would all be in.


There currently is not ONE ACTIVE SENATOR OR GOVERNOR seeking the GOP nomination! That is amazing. And it really says a lot.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. He'd already been within 5 points of Hillary by that stage

Here's a poll from May 8th 2007: Hillary up 7, Obama down 3, increasing her lead to 15 points.
http://www.news24.com/World/News/Clinton-pulls-ahead-of-Obama-20070508
Sure, she was leading; but he was definitely a serious candidate.

[aaaaaa5a]

21. What is interesting about that old news poll

is that at this point in 2007, Clinton and Obama had already separated from the field. They were already hosting debates. This shows you how far behind the GOP really is. Secondly, while everyone always claims polls right now don't mean anything, I find it interesting that even as early as 2007, the people who would win the nomination were already polling well, were in the headlines, and were no worse than second for their parties nomination…. EVEN NOW.

So the idea that a candidate can poll poorly at this point and still win the nomination isn't as true as pundits would make it out to be.

[Jim Lane]

32. The last election cycle is only one example.

I don't think that Carter and Bill Clinton were all that high in the polls eighteen months before their respective victories. Even in the last election cycle, wasn't Giuliani doing well in the polls at this point four years ago?

[quaker bill]

23. I did

starting with the 04 convention speech, and was sending money to Obama the day Dean dropped out of the primary. I took minor bets at the office before the first ballot was cast in Iowa that he would win the primary and beat the republican by 5 to 7 percent in the general.

No one serious is running because they know better. In most cases, you only get one real shot at this.

[themaguffin]

36. Obama wasn't running against a sitting President

[RBInMaine]

11. ANY RePuke running in 2012 will be a sacroficial fucking lamb. Bye Bye GOP 2012.

[KeepItReal]

20. Where's Bob Dole when you need him?

:-)

[davidpdx]

39. Maybe we should all chip in and encourage McCain to run again

His crotchety old ass was good for a laugh.

[Faygo Kid]

14. Joe Biden turns 74 in 2016.

He's earned a break by then, don't you think?

[stevenleser]

15. No question, but he also will have earned the nomination if he wants it. n/t

[PatSeg]

16. I don't think Joe will ever take a break

but I don't know if the country would elect someone who was 74, especially if you're looking at a two-term presidency.

[jberryhill]

19. And who are these "serious Republicans" staying out?

Let's face it, even among those Republicans that might be considered sane, they would have no hope of winning the GOP nomination.

[Ter]

22. We're probably not getting 12 years of party rule

2016, I'm afraid, will go to the pukes. Hello President Rand Paul.

[aaaaaa5a]

28. Hillary in 2016!

I see this being similar to the 1980-1992 run the GOP had.

[Avant Guardian]

24. The whole election will be about cheating in states with GOP governors

...so it doesn't matter who they run.

[Keith Bee]

25. That's why Daniels isn't running

K&R

[bettyellen]

26. that's why Im afraid that Palin will jump in. she wouldn't have much competition and it would give

her the opportunity to grift bigger and longer. If she stays out of the fray, her career will fade out. Maybe the GOP will even let her do it, knowing they have no serious contenders anyway.

[craigmatic]

27. Yeah their 16 field will be alot more credible. We need a newer younger face but I don't think

it needs to be somebody neccessarily tied to the administration. We need to look for a governor or dems from areas of the country that we wouldn't ordinarily win to run in 2016. We need to look west. I could see the interior secretary and maybe Scweitzer getting the nod. They'll have jeb, huckabee, Patacki, Daniels, and alot of others with money and connections running then.

[themaguffin]

31. i'm just thinking that bringing in a savy gov etc during the 2nd term will make that person Presi-

d-ential

[ProSense]

30. Republicans are going to have to

find some new candidates for 2016. The current candidates are tainted because they're in a race to appease their lunactic base.

Ron Paul
Rand Paul
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Tim Pawlenty
Mitch Daniels
Gary Johnson
Mitt Romney
Michele Bachmann
Sarah Palin
Haley Barbour
John Huntsman
Donald Trump
Mike Huckabee
Chris Christie
Bobby Jindal

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

38. Much more concerned about the Senate. Obama got this on lockdown.

But if DU Democrats, their liberal friends and family, stay at home and don't get out, we've already lost this fight.

[HughBeaumont]

40. The GOP has serious candidates?

Where?

All I see are a bunch of whack-a-doo Reaganite nutjobs still trying to convince a vastly unemployed, wage-supressed and ruined population that Trickle Down Economics and Tax Cuts Fer Th' Rich is smart economic policy. All I see are a bunch of corporate fluffing and funded lunatics politicizing every issue on the planet all in the name of getting their grubby mitts on people's tax monies. All I see are a bunch of slippery snakes in the grass, barely fundamentalist enough to not be called "Rapture Rightists" but at the same time pandering to these sort of loons.

All I see are a bunch of shits who wouldn't lose a second's worth of sleep to screw anyone making under $300,000 a year.

The only "serious" thing in regard to these clowns should be our urgency to keep their sorry asses from being anywhere NEAR the Oval Office.

[truebrit71]

42. I think that's what is going on too...the biggest sign to me was Huckabee not getting in...

...I think Failin' Palin will flirt with jumping in,and then at the last minute issue some bullshit excuse like wanting to be "more effective issuing press releases on Assbook and Twatter" than from the campaign trail...

My deepest hope is that the after Obama wins again in 2012 that the economy continues to improve and that he spends some time laying a solid foundation for a Dem to hold the WH in 2016. The last thing we need is another 2000 when some useless usurper sneaks in and fucks up all of the hard work of the previous 8 years of Dem rule...

WE still need to make a 2012 win a reality, but 2016 is the key...