Warren Brown race DEAD HEAT

[bigdarryl]

It's still early but this isn't good in my opinion because Brown is ahead by 3 points and has 10 million dollars tucked away he got from Wall Street most of that money will be spent degrading Warren plus he will get more money from the Koch brothers in the General election http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view/2011_1003poll_warren_on_par_with_brown_joe_k_deval_would_do_better/srvc=home&position=0

[PuraVidaDreamin]

1. It's just the bagger brothers first push back.

It was bound to happen. She's unstoppable- once the entire state gets to know her,
and she trounces him in a debate...

[Mass]

2. This poll is also interesting because it shows that Brown is beatable, not only by

Warren, but by basically everybody with some name recognition.

Patrick leads Brown by a 43-36 percent margin and Kennedy holds an even bigger advantage, 45 to 37 percent, among a sample of 506 registered voters. Even Attorney General Martha Coakley, who lost to Brown last year, would be in a dead heat with the Republican incumbent

I just hope that the Democratic establishment and the media let MA choose their nominee through a thorough process rather than crowning a nominee. There are five other candidates, all of them great progressives as well. Let's listen to all of them and determine who is the best?

These numbers are also bad news for Brown. He does not break 50 % with any democrat, except Herb Robinson, a candidate that is totally unknown in the state.

Brown-Conroy: 46-25 (17 undecided)
Brown-DeFranco: 48-22 (16 undecided)
Brown-Khazei: 40-28 (18 undecided)
Brown-Massie: 43-27 (19 undecided)
Brown-Robinson: 51-18 (17 undecided)
Brown-Warren: 41-38 (14 undecided)

[polmaven]

4. And keep in mind

the "news"paper involved here.....The Herald is a big time right wind rag tabloid, so the reliability of their polls is questionable at best, and will always favor the Republican.

[JCMach1]

3. For a second I had to think just who this Warren Brown was...

LOL

[no_hypocrisy]

5. Honest Question: Is the election for senator next month or next year?

[Mass]

6. Nov 2012.

[no_hypocrisy]

7. Thanks

[Gman]

8. I only start taking polls seriously 6 months before an election

No need to push the panic button just yet.

[karynnj]

9. On the contrary, there is 21% undecided - and Brown is well known and she isn't

In addition, look at the numbers against Deval Patrick and Joe Kennedy:

Patrick leads Brown by a 43-36 percent margin and Kennedy holds an even bigger advantage, 45 to 37 percent, among a sample of 506 registered voters. Even Attorney General Martha Coakley, who lost to Brown last year, would be in a dead heat with the Republican incumbent.

Note too that the same poll found Obama way ahead of both Perry and Romney.

Then consider that Brown's weak numbers come after a year and a half of positive, soft puff media coverage of Brown. It seems that MA voters have seen through this - for which they deserve huge credit.

As to the huge money - of course it is an advantage, but remember how much ad money was spent to sell new coke. It does mean that the Boston air waves will be filled with anti- Warren and pro Brown ads.

[ProSense]

10. Yup,

"On the contrary, there is 21% undecided - and Brown is well known and she isn't"

Which is why Warren is out campaigning hard to build up her name recognition. The Mass primary is in mid September.

[karynnj]

11. As are ALL of the Democratic candidates - all have much lower name recognition

The primary debates could enhance Warren's position as front runner - or they could elevate one of the other candidates. Remember that in October 2007, Hillary Clinton looked pretty inevitable. In early November 2003, Kerry was polling close to Sharpton.

Like others, I am impressed by Warren. However, I know her positions only on those things she is known for. In addition, she has never campaigned for anything and has to start doing so under an intense spotlight. That didn't work for Wes Clark, who also had an incredible resume.

The more solid new information from this poll is that Brown really has no reason to be happy with this poll. The Democrats now are not solidly behind a candidate - which would be rather premature. Brown is losing to Democrats, who are better known and not in the race. It is hard to see that when a winner does emerge from the primaries how the new nominee will not pick up a large chunk of the independents. (Not to mention, the winner of the Democratic nomination will have gotten a LOT of debate practice, while Brown, who is not all that good answering questions, will not have.)

[ProSense]

12. True.

"The primary debates could enhance Warren's position as front runner - or they could elevate one of the other candidates."

In fact, Warren's presence in the race has already done that by focusing national attention there.