He has been running for 5 years and never has gotten more than 25% of the GOP to support him.
There is zero emotional connection with Romney, and I mean zero. Last year when Senator Bennett needed help to keep his seat Romney showed up to show support.
He was booed off the stage.
Booed off the stage for standing up for the most conservative Republican in the Senate.
And that was in Utah.
Zero emotional committment.
When the others start to drop out their supporters will drift to other candidates but they will not go to Romney, if they liked Romney they would already be there.
By February there will be a "anybody but Romney" movement and even if it doesn't overtake Romeny they will try and take it to the convention and draft someone, Daniels, or the one that has been really quiet Jeb Bush.
Here is the latest from Iowa
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/ia-2012-caucus-30-cain-22_n_1005320.html30% Cain
22% Romney
10% Paul
9% Perry
8% Gingrich
8% Bachmann
5% Santorum
1% Huntsman
Ironically Romney's large lead in NH actually works against him
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/nh-2012-primary-45-romney_n_1004826.html2012 President: Republican Primary
45% Romney
13% Cain
13% Paul
7% Perry
5% Huntsman
4% Gingrich
3% Bachmann
1% Santorum
It is his home state, having moved there. If he wins, he doesn't really gain anything. If his numbers soften it will be major news. If he wins but it is less than 30% then it will be a fatal blow.
Which brings us to SC
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/sc-2012-primary-26-cain-2_n_1005130.htmlIf you don't understand the emnity between evangelicals and Mormons consider this fact;
Republicans in South Carolina currently prefer a black man over a Mormon.
26% Cain
25% Romney
15% Perry
8% Gingrich
7% Paul
5% Bachmann
1% Santorum
Forget the national polls. Romney has big problems when you look at the key primary states, states where he has been hundreds of times.
The fact is the more people see of Romney the less they want to support him.
Give the Republicans an alternative and they will take it.
Romney is not going to be the nominee, or if he is it will be after the worst Republican blood letting since Goldwater/Rockfeller.