AZ-Pres: President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points

[ProSense]

AZ-Pres: President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points

by Jed Lewison

Rocky Mountain Poll. 10/13-14. Arizona RVs. ±4.1%. (no trend)

Obama: 45
Romney: 40

Obama: 45
Cain: 38

Obama: 44
Perry: 38

Taking Arizona would be a big deal: Not only does it represent one of the very few states that could flip to Obama (John McCain won it in 2008), it has a sizable 11 electoral votes, up from 10 in 2008. Including D.C., the average state has 10.5 electoral votes, but because there are a lot of of smaller states, Arizona ranks in the top 20 by electoral vote.

Based on the 2008 results and the 2012 electoral vote distribution, President Obama would get 359 electoral votes, but 2012 is likely to be a much tougher election than 2008. Arizona would seem to be the only state that he's got a reasonable chance at flipping. In a tight race, it could neutralize the effect of losing Indiana, which also has 11 electoral votes. Obviously if the GOP nominee implodes, other states would come into play, but at that point, the only question will be how big Obama's victory margin is.

And speaking of the GOP imploding:

According to the survey, 25% of Arizona Republicans say if the state's primary were held today, they would vote for Cain, a businessman, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, with 24% saying they would back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who's making his second bid for the White House. Cain's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 10%, with all other candidates in single digits and one in five Arizona Republicans undecided.

more

[AtomicKitten]

1. I imagine when the GOP douches are done debating, they will have turned voters off for good.

I would advise the GOP to keep talking ...

[JoePhilly]

2. Wow .... this poll, this early means little, but still .... I can't see the GOP

gaining traction with their current set of nut cases.

If a trend develops here, the GOP is toast.

[ClarkUSA]

3. Team Obama anticipated this via their internal polling awhile ago, so they opened OFA offices there.

Our donations made that possible. With this latest news, I'm sure the fight for Arizona will begin in earnest. I wonder how many sane Arizonans moved to Pres. Obama after his leadership and compassion in the aftermath of Gabby Giffords' shooting and how many are tired of insane Teabaggers after the immigration bill PR and economic debacle? Plenty, I'd bet.

[CreekDog]

4. Not bad considering Arizona is one of the most heavily Mormon states in the USA

Percent of state population
Utah 71.76%
Idaho 26.63
Wyoming 10.10
Nevada 7.41
Arizona 5.45

[CakeGrrl]

5. Nice to head into the campaign with a little edge, albeit a really early one.

The more the GOP runs it's collectively asinine-to-crazy mouth, the better.

The Obama campaign hasn't even really begun because they don't yet have their challenger. Look out when they do.

[jenmito]

6. That probably has something to do with the Repubs.' obvious disdain for "illegals" as they

call them.

[immoderate]

7. More surprising as AZ has lots of Mormons.

At least that was my experience when I lived there.

--imm

[GoCubsGo]

20. It's still the case.

I'm pretty shocked by this, too. And, not just because AZ has lots of Mormons. They're loaded with wingnuts, too. (See: AZ state legislature, both US Senators, their Governor, Sheriff Joke Arpaio...).

[ellisonz]

8. We want Mittens! We want Mittens! We want Mittens!

Because a quarter of his base won't vote for him!:evilgrin:

[robertpaulsen]

9. Killer ad!

Make Mittens eat his own words!

[Hutzpa]

13. Hey! I have a flip flop for sale

:smoke:

[robertpaulsen]

17. Speaking of a Romney flip flop...

Romney suddenly morphs into a climate change skeptic

By Stephen C. Webster
Friday, October 28, 2011

Speaking to a crowd in Philadelphia yesterday, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) suddenly changed his position on whether humans contribute to climate change, insisting that “we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet.”

He added that “the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2 emissions is not the right course for us.”

Romney’s comments might confuse those who listened in on him in June, http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/06/03/romney-man-made-climate-change-is-real/">when he told an audience in New Hampshire, “I believe that humans have contributed” to climate change.

Then he added: “It’s important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may be significant contributors.”

more...

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/10/28/romney-suddenly-morphs-into-a-climate-change-skeptic/

[Zyzfyx]

10. I hope he does win Arizona. And keeps New Mexico & Colorado.

Nevada is a lost cause, as are Indiana & North Carolina.

[Arkana]

11. Indiana maybe, but I don't believe that North Carolina is lost.

[WI_DEM]

15. I agree, the polls in NC have either had Obama ahead or within moe.

[Hutzpa]

12. We need a super majority in Senate and Congress.

Yes We Will Again!!

[polichick]

14. How corrupt is the vote count going to be there? That's our real problem...

...especially with the prez gaining in the polls.

[Hawkowl]

16. Close enough to steal

Obama's refusal to investigate election fraud will prevent his re-election. It's o.k, Bill Clinton has paved the way for his multi-million dollar speaking tour.

[PragmaticLiberal]

18. The DOJ is investigating election fraud.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. They will be surprised

The Right Wing sites and RW friends I have are acting like Obama has no chance in the election in 2012. He is actually the odds on favorite right now. Unless the economy tanks and it's been showing some good signs, Obama is a shoe in for reelection.

Sure Obama has had some struggles, but I think if you honestly look at it, he will win easily. He's finally starting to control the discussion and even if it isn't their intention the OWS has been a boon for Obama in that they are turning the discussion towards issues he wants to be at the forefront.

Obama by a comfortable margin and significant gains in the House while keeping majority in the Senate. That's the most likely scenario despite what the news says.