Prediction: Cain collapses, Newt rises

[oberliner]

I think that as more details come out, the numbers will finally catch up with the situation and Cain will fade in the polls.

I think the candidate who will rise up towards the top of the pack will be, incredibly, Newt Gingrich.

Here's why I think this:

The RW radio hosts seem to love him - he gets a lot of air time and adulation from Sean Hannity et al.

He can sound intelligent - he has an air about him that gives him the appearance of being a smart guy who understands the economic problems and is not flustered by "challenging" questions (as Cain, Perry, Bachmann have been)

I think he can position himself as social conservative who has been well-vetted since he has already been in politics and can claim he fought "the establishment" and ushered in the Republican Congressional wave.

Remember McCain last time - languishing in the polls, then found himself to be the last man standing.

I think Newt can be this election's McCain (with hopefully the same amount of success in the general).

Thoughts?

[applegrove]

1. Apparently Cain is pulling in the money this week. Seems the teapartiers love

an asshole. It is the ideal of what they want to send to washington. To destroy Washington. Like an Ayn Rand character.

[oberliner]

6. More details will emerge

And the bloom will fade.

[Gore1FL]

9. He's sort of their last horse.

I mean Santorum? Paul? The Mormon? The less known Mormon? The crazies are going to be fun to watch.

[polichick]

2. My thought about Gingrich is that he's an ass.

[oberliner]

7. Aren't they all?

The question is - against whom will Obama have to run?

[polichick]

10. It won't matter which ass they run if they can rig enough machines...

...and keep enough citizens from voting. Any ol' ass will do.

[blueclown]

3. Newt Gingrich has never sound intelligent - where is this meme coming from?

[oberliner]

5. Which Republican candidate sounds more intelligent than him?

Certainly not Cain, Perry, Romney or Bachmann.

[blueclown]

15. That's not a high bar to reach.

BTW, I think that Romney is much more intelligent than Newt. Newt is a bomb thrower, nothing more, nothing less.

[oberliner]

28. Romney may be more intelligent than Newt but Newt sounds more intelligent

Romney always seems afraid of saying something that will upset someone. Tries to very much walk the line - people pleaser.

Newt seems less beholden to that sort of thing. Maybe if he rises in the polls, that will change.

In any case, their primary is entertaining if nothing else.

I don't see Obama losing to any of those clowns.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

12. From the pig's own mouth. He once said he was too intellectual to

Be a national political leader, or something like that.

[former9thward]

18. That meme came from Obama's Education Secretary.

http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/on-education/2009/08/17/arne-duncan-al-sharpton-and-newt-gingrich-join-forces

[oberliner]

29. Interesting article

Thanks for sharing that.

[win_in_06]

53. He's written several books, lectured, etc.

[Jack Rabbit]

4. Cain will beyesterdayt's news in no time.

Mitt gets the nomination.

[oberliner]

8. I don't think it will be Mitt

The "inevitable candidate" never seems to be the winner.

Just ask Hillary or even Gary Hart!

[Jack Rabbit]

13. I've always thought it would be Mitt

And furthermore, the "inevitable candidate" often wins. Just ask Nixon, Carter and Reagan, all of who were pretty much inevitable from New Hampshire on.

The Republicans really don't have a choice. Mitt is the only candidate the GOP has who even appears sane. (Don't get me wrong. I won't vote for anybody who thinks corporations are people.) Obama would knock the others over with a feather, but he'll have to use at least a small 2x4 on Mitt.

[oberliner]

30. We are not up to New Hampshire

I do think that after New Hampshire, things might seem different. But the inevitable candidate in October/November has not panned out recently.

The RWers really don't like Romney for whatever reason.

[golfguru]

20. Mitt will be rejected because federal HCR passed

Mitt is hated by 75% of gopers because of Romneycare.

[Tx4obama]

11. Tomorrow (Saturday) there will be a Gingrich-Cain debate

on TV on C-Span1 and on the computer live streamed - 8pm ET

More info here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x811416

[elocs]

14. If, or when you are wrong I am guessing we won't be hearing from you to admit you were wrong? n/t

[oberliner]

27. Why not?

It's just how I think it will play out. I certainly could be wrong. Just speculating based on what I've observed.

My original prediction was that Chris Christie would get it - glad to admit I was wrong on that one.

[oberliner]

52. Can I get any props for being right?

PPP: Newt 28 (+13), Cain 25 (-5), Romney 18 (-4). CNN: Romney 24 (-2), Newt 22 (+14), Cain 14 (-11)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=816059&mesg_id=816059

[RoccoR5955]

16. Newts never rise...

Especially in winter. They hide under rocks, as will the newt called Gingrich. If he thinks that his marital problems will not come back to haunt him, he is mistaken... They already hurt him in the past, when he tried to run.
My bet is on Romborg.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. Newt - old dead meat? Well he should be boring enough as an opponent

what happen to his 'wife' thing?

[creeksneakers2]

19. They haven't tried Santorum yet

He's more of a tea party type than Newt.

[totodeinhere]

37. I don't think they will go for someone who couldn't even hold on to his own Senate seat. n/t

[bhikkhu]

21. Mr. Likeability...

He sounds good for a few sound bytes (if you don't mind the usual spin), but he's basically a pretty hateful person. I don't see him with much shelf-life once he gets a bit of attention.

[MNBrewer]

46. Newt is about as "likable" as a rattlesnake

but twice as reptilian.

[ingac70]

22. Mr. 'I cheated on my wife because I was horny for America?'

:rofl:

[oberliner]

36. That's not really a deal-breaker for most voters

I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.

[totodeinhere]

38. That would have been a big deal a few years back, but nowadays I doubt if anyone cares about that

sort of thing anymore.

[ingac70]

40. His screwing around, yeah....

but his stupid reasons for it leave him wide open to ridicule. I was listening to right wing radio a couple of days after her said that and they were giving him hell.

[spin]

23. I'll venture a prediction. It will be Cainn and Gingrich against Obama and Biden ...

in the 2012 election.

Obama wins if the economy shows real signs of improvement and the unemployment drops below 8%.

Of course, many factors are in play and could influence the election. The economic situation in Europe could play a big role as if Europe slides into a recession, we will suffer another downturn in our economy. There is a possibility of a war between Israel and Iran that could really screw up the supply of oil to the world. The OWS street movement could turn violent and we could have a long hot summer of riots or it could remain peaceful and hurt the Republicans in the election much as the Tea Party movement hurt the Democrats in the midterms.

Next year could prove to be very interesting historically.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. If We Can't Beat That Ticket We Literally Need To Find Another Country

The only Repubs with a prayer of beating President Obama are Romney and Huntsman and I have as much chance of getting the Repub nomination as the latter.

[spin]

35. Romney seems to be able to get 20% of the Republican vote and peaks...

at that point. He is far from conservative enough for most Republicans although I agree that he is their best choice as a candidate against Obama. He will attract a higher percentage of the Independent vote than the other candidates.

[mwb970]

61. Cain? Really?

I think your prediction is wrong.

[RickFromMN]

24. Newt Gingrich? He's a known quantity. He can't fool people like Romney can.

People, meaning independents, might have trouble figuring out where Romney stands.
I certainly have trouble figuring out where Romney stands.
I think even Republicans have trouble figuring out where Romney stands.

I hate to admit, I was certain the Republicans would select Perry.
I didn't think Perry would self destruct.
I thought Perry was a better politician, being governor or Texas for so long.
I thought Perry had the money. I thought Perry was a shoe-in.

With Perry gone, if Cain self destructs, the Republicans will select Romney.
They will rally around Romney. They will assume they can control Romney.

Romney is vague enough, and confusing enough, to fool a lot of people.
He might just be able to fool enough independents to make a race out of the Presidency.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. "Known quantity"

Sorry, I unintentionally stole your term in the post below. Your post wasn't here when I started reading this thread. We had the same idea.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. If anyone rises it will be Perry

This late in the process, far simpler to regain support than quadruple where you've been all along

Newt is a known quantity. That's his problem. A newcomer with the identical themes would be eligible to soar.

[Evergreen Emerald]

31. Where are those new contributions coming from?

Is any media outlet following the money? Cain claims record contributions since the harassment allegations came out. I wonder if the money is coming from Koch and co.

[WI_DEM]

32. Well, it is his turn--they all have had their shots at being the front runner.

[Douglas Carpenter]

34. I've been wondering that myself. Somebody has to be the new non-Romney to represent the most

reactionary wing of the most reactionary major political party in American history. I have had my doubt whether Cain could ever be considered a genuine serious contender even before these recent allegations. CEO of the fourth largest pizza chain in America has not traditionally been considered an adequate qualification to be President of the United States. There is bound to be a lot of bad blood from many social conservatives toward Rick Perry given that his camp is getting blamed for leaking the sexual harassment story. So if Cain, Bachmann and Perry are out of the picture. That does pretty much leave just Gingrich. His resume of being a history professor and a longer tenure in Congress culminating in serving as Speaker of the House as well as a viable claim of being almost the founder of the post-Reagan extreme-right does give him plenty of gravitas. Furthermore, Gingrich is about as well connected as anyone could possibly be. He does pass the "right-wing nut" litmus test of having a long history of saying crazy and irresponsible things and has since he first emerged on the national scene. Yeah, time will tell..but I could see that happening.

[MadMaddie]

39. It really is time to start reminding the country about Newt

divorcing his gravely ill wife for another women....and that she wasn't the first...I am so sick of these bastards screaming about morality and people forgetting about the lack of morality they participated in...

[oberliner]

42. Not sure that is the best route to take

Why not focus on policy differences?

[MadMaddie]

44. I agree that the policies Newt is pushing are 1980 policies

that got us into this situation we now face. Of course that will be part of the argument.

We have to think ahead....God, Gays, Guns and who is black enough....all social issues will be what they use and we need to understand that we need to be prepared for it.....and not get caught flat footed.....

[Skittles]

41. shit floats

[Hippo_Tron]

43. I've been saying this ever since Perry failed to establish himself as the alternative to Mittens

Romney is unacceptable to too much of the Republican base to win. And that's a shame, IMO, because despite conventional wisdom, I think he would be easier to beat than Perry or even Newt. The pundits are all focused on this mythical "center" and believe that by nominating somebody other than Romney, the GOP would be alienating this "center". I don't think this center exists and I think that there is so much chaos and confusion right now, that Americans would be perfectly willing to elect a blatant right wing ideologue, if they believed it would solve their problems.

Mittens, more than any of them, is such a blatant tool for the wealthiest Americans. He has no solid positions on anything, except enriching the 1%. The DNC attack ads pretty much write themselves.

As for Perry, Newt, or anyone else, the strategy is a lot less clear.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. If We Can't Beat Those Clowns, Save Romney, We Literally Need To Find Another Country

.

[Ikonoklast]

47. No chance.

Newt is not a credible candidate, he's another one on a book tour posing as a candidate.

He has been married three times.

The Religious Right doesn't trust him, no matter how many asses he kisses.

He has more baggage than a Greyhound Bus.

He is unlikeable on so many levels, even the people that used to work for him.

He and I have one thing in common; neither of us will ever be president of this country.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Yep

They are stuck with the Mittster.

[Tiggeroshii]

49. Gingrich certainly knows how to try and capitalize on sex scandals

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

50. Nude Gingrich would be fun to watch

The guy has nearly lost it at at least two debates when he doesn't like the question being asked. I think he would absolutely melt down if his divorces and his bill at Tiffany's were dwelled upon. So far, the media hasn't been tough on him because no one takes him seriously. Get Nude out there naked and exposed and he would blow up before our eyes.

[oberliner]

51. I hope you are right

Because here he comes...

[AlinPA]

54. It looks like Newt now.

[oberliner]

55. Indeed it does

Should make for a fun contest.

[joshcryer]

56. Nicely done. Who would've thought?

:rofl:

Newt was the butt of all the jokes only a few months back, wow, what a hilarious ride!

[oberliner]

57. Thanks

I only wish I was this good at picking football games.

[opihimoimoi]

58. Newt is an overblown blowhard asshole...pompous n condenscending..he acts .....

Worthless Waste of TIME we will never get back.

He is a POS....

[Name removed]

59. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[davidpdx]

60. That's exactly what's happening now

Cain's downfall and none of the other candidates being strong has left an opening for old Newt to bust through. It will be interesting to see how much traction he gets.

[Vinca]

62. Well, you know what they say "floats to the top."