If Irene goes through Puerto Rico as seems likely

[malaise]

Georgia and the Carolinas will be fretting not Florida

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL_sm2+gif/145713W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211456.shtml
UMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[NightWatcher]

1. I'll be back home to Jax Thursday night and will be watching between now and then

[Odin2005]

2. Yup. I think she will miss Hispanola. Floyd 2.0.

:scared:

[Odin2005]

3. UGH, even WEATHER will bring out the racists over at Jeff Master's Blog.

Too many people WANTING the storm to hit Hispanola so it disrupts it, not caring about all those people that LIVE ON THAT ISLAND.

[malaise]

4. Some awful people post there

Memememememememememememememememe!
Only they matter - sickening.

[Odin2005]

7. Too many self-centered teenagers posting there.

[malaise]

9. I've never seen so many prople rooting for hurricanes

anywhere else on the planet

[Odin2005]

11. Well, I like monster storms as long as they are fish storms, LOL!

[malaise]

14. I admire their beauty if they are fish storms but

I don't root for them.

Looking less and less like Florida
delete graphic - too big

[Kurovski]

5. Stay safe, lay low, all.

My darling comrade! :hug:

[Odin2005]

6. OMG, the GFS model shows Irene hitting Georgia as a MAJOR HURRICANE!

DOOOOOOOM!!! :scared:

[malaise]

8. One of them had her going through Jamaica as a Cat4

Don't take them too seriously.
Still if she goes through PR and doesn't spend too much time in Hispaniola, she has time and a very warm Atlantic to strengthen

[Odin2005]

10. The GFS tends to be pretty good with track, not so good with intensity.

It's a broad, global model, and so not as good with the fine details as tropical system models like the GDFL.

[RebelOne]

12. I'm in Georgia and I am not worried.

Been through many hurricanes when I lived in South Florida. Besides, we in Georgia could use any rain that comes our way. But without the wind, of course.

[alphafemale]

16. DOOOOOOOM!!! lol...yeah...right.

I'm just across the river and about 20 miles from the ocean.

We'll phone ya when we get worried.

(Don't wait by the phone)

[mnhtnbb]

13. I'm in central NC--with drought conditions--and I say c'mon Irene!

but of course I'd like her to be about tropical storm strength--not hurricane.

[malaise]

15. LOL that's the problem

Lots of time to strengthen in the Atlantic

[Odin2005]

17. Uh-Oh, Irene looks like Hugo 2.0 on the models...

:scared:

[Odin2005]

18. Irene is a Hurricane! Landfall in Puerto Rico immanent!

[malaise]

19. Yep

This was my worry

[malaise]

20. Puerto Rico was hit much harder than expected

over one million folks with no power

[Obamanaut]

21. You mean, the track has moved and my prediction is coming closer?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

But to counter, I predict that this particular storm will approach the southeast tip of Florida, and scuttle up the coast, with no winds over land greater than 45 mph. It will head back out to sea in the general area of the Ga/Fl line, and will be heard from no more.

And you heard it here first.


Seems like only yesterday the Miami area was doomed.

[malaise]

22. Except that your 45mph seems way off

Irene is predicted to reach the coast as a Cat2 hurricane

[Obamanaut]

23. And it is still aways from Florida. Give it time. The 'doom predictors' will have their

day soon enough via something else, but not this, at least not along the east coast of the US.

Or Miami.

[malaise]

24. I'll take the word of the experts over yours - this is a huge system

Just give thanks it's not a Cat4 or 5 heading WNW

[Are_grits_groceries]

25. I looooooooove positive messages when I wake up and go to the interwebs! LOL

As I have said, if it aims for 'teh crazy', SC is the bullseye. If it's in the Gulf, I give the nod to Texas.

BTW everyone be careful because the overall weather patterns have been wild. DO NOT assume it will miss you or what the size will be. If hurricane season is as crazy as tornado season, GAK! Nothing would surprise me. Be aware if you are anywhere near a flood zone. DON'T assume you aren't because a lot of floods have gone way over older limits this year.

I thought I would add my joyous voice to the occasion.





***Meh Kitteh Fights For America!**********Republicans Fight for Big Money!*****

[malaise]

26. Excellent post

BTW everyone be careful because the overall weather patterns have been wild. DO NOT assume it will miss you or what the size will be. If hurricane season is as crazy as tornado season, GAK! Nothing would surprise me.

[Dappleganger]

42. I have seen enough storms jot east or west suddenly enough times

to know that if you poke Mother Nature in the eye all half-cocked, she CAN fuck with you. ;)

[Obamanaut]

29. Oh No! The expert's new prediction is creeping ever closer to mine, here ->

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

But to counter, I predict that this particular storm will approach the southeast tip of Florida, and scuttle up the coast, with no winds over land greater than 45 mph. It will head back out to sea in the general area of the Ga/Fl line, and will be heard from no more.

And you heard it here first.


Seems like only yesterday the Miami area was doomed.

Gloom-mongers will soon need more fodder.

[Obamanaut]

33. Remember when I said it would miss the tip of Fla, zip up along the coast,

and head back out to sea? Seems like only yesterday it was going to hit the Keys, and Miami, and Lauderdale -

Oh look, here's that post ->

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

But to counter, I predict that this particular storm will approach the southeast tip of Florida, and scuttle up the coast, with no winds over land greater than 45 mph. It will head back out to sea in the general area of the Ga/Fl line, and will be heard from no more.

And you heard it here first.



And there's still time to head out to sea. Are the 'experts' still saying Miami/Keys/etc?

[NightWatcher]

27. Yikes! The 11am numbers take it away from Florida, but...

have it hitting the Carolinas and as a much stronger storm.

[GreenPartyVoter]

28. So much for my friends in TX getting some rain. (Then again, rain via a hurricane

is not the best option, even during a severe drought.)

[snooper2]

31. We'll take it anyway we can get it at this point....this cat 1 storm won't make a dent

in our weather pattern here...

Just stuck with heat after heat after heat...

[kentauros]

32. Oddly enough,

I haven't yet talked to a single person either here in Houston or elsewhere in the state that doesn't wish we'd get some kind of tropical system. T.S. Don literally evaporated the moment it hit our coast. It couldn't get in! And a Tropical Storm is one level below Category 1.

All we really need is for a storm strong enough to break this almost "permanent" high over the state and cool things down. After that, maybe we'll see more fronts and storm-systems make their way into the state and recharge our lakes and aquifers :)

I posted a very informative story to the Texas forum from our local weekly, The Houston Press, describing why we aren't getting any rain and why it's likely to remain this way for a few more weeks. The question "Remember cold fronts?" was posited within the story and one commenter said emphatically "NO!" And it's true. My sister in Austin mentioned that she's forgetting what thunder sounds like ;)

Here's the story if you want to read it:
http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/2011/08/why_its_so_hot_when_it_might_e.php

[Texasgal]

34. Good link!

October cannot come quick enough. :(

[spin]

30. In north Florida, a tropical storm would help alleviate the lack of rain ...

we have had this season.

[Are_grits_groceries]

35. It's highest probability now is aimed at the Carolinas:

Today's weather map:


The high on the map is pushing air down and out. That can push Irene further to the East if it is strong enough. The interplay between that high and its location and Irene will determine where it hits. It could stay further East than thought and grow larger before hitting further North.
Keep an eye on that high pressure system.








***Meh Kitteh Fights For America!**********Republicans Fight for Big Money!*****

[malaise]

36. Yes indeed and it has time to strengthen over open water

Get ready folks! Looks like Max Mayfield got this one wrong

[malaise]

37. One more thing - the cone suggests

that Irene could crawl up that Atlantic coast for a long time.

[Odin2005]

39. The GFS model does just that, Washington DC and New England get Cat1 winds.

[malaise]

41. What about New York

Damn!

[Odin2005]

44. Yeah, NYC, too. This is gonna be bad.

[Odin2005]

38. One of the models (HWRF) is have Irene hit Daytona Beach as a Cat5! OMG!!!

:scared:

[malaise]

40. Cat 2 now

and only moving at 10mph - trouble for a few places starting with the Bahamas

If this hits several places on the US mainland at least the unemployment figures will go down.

[Odin2005]

43. Wherever this hits, it's gonna be REALLY bad!

:(

[malaise]

45. Well I hope everyone prepares so there is no loss of life

Hate to be cynical but at least there will be jobs next week.

[Odin2005]

47. I believe Floyd was the last major to hit the area, right?

[malaise]

49. Yes Irene is behaving a lot like Floyd but she's weaker

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd
<snip>
2.6 million coastal residents of five states were ordered from their homes as it approached. The Cape Verde-type hurricane formed off the coast of Africa and lasted from September 7 to September 19, peaking in strength as a very strong Category 4 hurricane—just short of the highest possible rating—on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It was among the largest Atlantic hurricanes of its strength ever recorded.

Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. It then paralleled the East Coast of the United States, causing massive evacuations and costly preparations from Florida through North the Mid-Atlantic states. The storm weakened significantly, however, before making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, and caused further damage as it traveled up the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England.

[Odin2005]

46. Irene is at 100mph. I think she's undergoing rapid intensification.

:wow:

[malaise]

48. A nice warm Atlantic is helping her strengthen

I'm really gladH aiti won't face that Northern quadrant - they can't take any more problems.
Hubby is watching that southern section and wondering if we'll have tropical storm winds.
Given the size and strength of this lady, I'd settle for that - we're lucky