Why I am not jumping up and down over the Egyptian protests

[RandySF]

I am not jumping up and down over the current unrest in Egypt because I don't know where this thing is headed. Mubarek is a torturing, dictatorial thug, but before we start calling for Obama to throw him out of Cairo, we need to ask the most important question: What comes next? Would we see a Western-style democracy that Lebanon is striving for (in fits and starts)? Will it be a US-propped government similar to Iraq? Or will we see the largest and, historically, most important Arab country in the world become a theocracy sitting next to the Suez Canal and an already paranoid Israel? What would Israel's reaction be and neighboring countries' reactions after that? I'm not saying I know what will happen because I don't, but I don't think anyone else really does either.

EDIT: Why I am not not jumping up and down over having Mubarek removed.

I don't want to sneak around and change the title above. I like to own my mistakes and it may confuse people if I change it. The people of Egypt have every right to stand up and demand an end to torture and incarceration of political opponents, free elections and an economy that actually functions, but Mubarek's ouster creates a great unknown.

[tabatha]

1. I heard some disturbing comments from people in

Iran on Al Jazeera - about Egypt and Iran joining up to make one big Islamic state. I do not believe that that is what Egyptians want, and I hope it never happens. Most of the Iranians do not like their govt.

[RandySF]

3. I would be shocked if that happened.

Someone once told me that most Egyptians see themselves as "Egyptians first" because of their place in world history. On the other hand, I don't know what brand of Islam is practiced or how they view Persians.

[Smarmie Doofus]

5. No. Sunni v. Shiite. It would take a miracle. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. From all the readying I've done in the recent past

my suppositions here.

No it will not be a pro western modern liberal democratic state (and I hope I am wrong and it is)

But it will nto be a theocracy either... the brotherhood is not only banned, but fringe.

If we have El Baradei become the next president, it will be an independent state... which we will not control... but the closest to a democracy you can get.

Oh and we already did throw Mubarak... parse the speeches...

[doc03]

4. I wish I knew, one thing for sure if it goes wrong it could put

our economy in a free-fall. I hope we have the ability to keep the Suez canal open. Monday I expect the oil prices to start going through the roof. There goes all the money we have recovered in our 401k's over the last couple years.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

45. Why would the Egyptians close the Suez Canal?

They make a lot of money off the tolls, and all sorts of countries, not just the U.S., receive their oil from ships that pass through it.

[doc03]

58. We have no idea who is going to take over in Egypt

or what some radical group may attempt. I will bet on one thing the oil speculators will drive the price of crude up over $100 a barrel before the week is out.

[Maine_Nurse]

6. US revolution was an anomaly

likely due to the fact that we were not part of the "motherland" which we were fighting. Very very few rebellions/uprisings that result in toppled governments result in anything resembling our form of democracy.

This is seriously scary stuff going on that will impact the entire world. Mubarek sucks, but what comes next could be a lot worse for Egypt and the world. Remember a bunch of liberal young students helping to overthrow the Shah of Iran? He sucked too, but most would take him over what exists there now.

[wisteria]

8. Your right. n/t

[Hissyspit]

51. No, he/she is oversimplifying.

And you can't seem to see the difference between a "president" and a dictator.

[Hissyspit]

53. Or it could be more like Romania:

"After a decade of post-revolution economic problems, Romania made economic reforms and joined the European Union on 1 January 2007. Romania is now an upper-middle income country with high human development,<6> although within the European Union, Romania's income level remains one of the lowest."

[johnroshan]

7. This is the kind of thinking that has dragged us into the mud

all these years of foreign policy. Every single dictator we support for policy reasons have ended up biting us in the ass. We need to stop propping up dictators and move towards about genuine democratization.

The future is uncertain, it has always been, it will always be. That is no reason to be afraid of it and support the oppression of millions.

Where is the America that I knew? Where is the America that stood for something more than its own prosperity?

[wisteria]

10. Mubarak is President-not dictator. n/t

[EFerrari]

12. What do you call a regime that sends out its "security forces"

to loot their own cities and shoot their own peaceful people?

[johnroshan]

14. LOL.. Good one there Biden. nt/

[Hissyspit]

17. Mubarak is a dictator.

He just dissolved the government to install his own.

"Mubarak is currently ranked 20th on Parade Magazine's 2009 World's Worst Dictators list."

20. Hosni Mubarak
Egypt

Age: 80
In power since: 1981
Last year's rank: 17

The use of torture in Egypt has been widely documented. In response to international pressure, Mubarak allowed local elections in 2008, but in 80% of the contests, his party’s candidates ran unopposed. He made it so difficult to register or campaign that turnout was estimated at only 3%. The U.S. gives Egypt $1.3 billion in military aid each year. In 2008, U.S. trade with Egypt hit $8.4 billion.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. in what respect charlie?

Oh the tittle... silly me.

[Iggo]

88. Why? Because that's his title?

[NuclearDem]

89. Oh i c wat u did thar

[RandySF]

15. So then

What happens to the status of women in Egyptian society? What happens tot he Christian minority? What happens to the peace treaty with Israel? What kinds of unsavory organizations might take footholds in Egypt?

[Hissyspit]

19. delete

[johnroshan]

23. To be honest, I don't know.

However, I cannot support oppressing millions based on a fear of what is to come. The people have taken to the streets and it takes a lot to finally break the stupor of the common man and force him on the streets.

They have the right to throw out the yoke of oppression off their backs. By not acknowledging it, and talking against it, you are indeed siding with the dictator.

Most likely, the people of Egypt will never settle for another dictatorial government. Theocracy is also not a very bright possibility as the Muslim Brotherhood freaks are a fringe group. The government that is likely to come up would be democratic and secular. Even if it is not, the people will once again raise up and fight until they get a government that is conducive to them. All we have to do is support what the people want.

Why is that so hard?

[Name removed]

59. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hissyspit]

60. And all I can see from yours is patronizing marginalization

and parroting of standard lines.

Pretty much everyone is aware things could go bad here. Lots of things are behind this, including el Baradei:

"ElBaradei's name has been circulated by opposition groups since 2009 as a possible candidate to succeed President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt's highest executive position.<50><51><52>

ElBaradei did not make any clear statements regarding his intentions to run for the office, however he has demanded that certain conditions have to be met to ensure fair elections accompanied by changes to the constitution that will allow more freedom for independent candidates before he would actually consider running for presidency. Several opposition groups and parties have endorsed him, considering him a neutral figure who could transition the country to greater democracy.

On 24 February 2010, ElBaradei met with several opposition leaders and notable intellectuals at his home in Cairo. The meeting was concluded with an announcement for the formation of a new non-party-political movement called "National Association for Change". The movement aims for general reforms in the political scene and mainly article 76 of the Egyptian constitution, which places restrictions on true free presidential elections, especially when it comes to independent candidates. The banned political group the Muslim Brotherhood were represented by one of their key figures who attended the meeting, however their stand in accepting a non-member of their group as a candidate is yet unclear. It is also unknown whether Amr Moussa, the head of the Arab League who met with ElBaradei a day earlier, will be part of the new movement.<53>

While speaking at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government on 27 April 2010, ElBaradei joked that he was "looking for a job" and is seeking to be an "agent of change and an advocate for democracy" within Egyptian politics."
az=view_all&address=385x548769

[johnroshan]

63. Idealistic platitudes?

like "don't support dictators who oppress their citizens? support what the people want?" You do have an interesting world view.

Answer me this, how can you rationalize siding with Mubarak and repressing the voice of the Egyptians who are on the streets?

Fear of what might come?
Mubarak is not a dictator and all is fine and dandy in Egypt?

Please let me know why you wouldn't support the protesters.

[scarletwoman]

27. +1,000!

Egypt belongs to the Egyptians.

[white_wolf]

40. The ironic

thing is that our policies don't even seem to create prosperity for us. Our support of dictators has turned nearly every hand in the Middle East and South America against us. We helped create Iran and Bin Ladin. If we actually supported real democratic reforms we could make the world a better place for the U.S. and the rest of the world. Of course the dictators benefit the very rich in this country so I wouldn't hold your breath on that happening.

[lutherj]

9. I AM jumping up and down because I want to see all spurious authoritarian regimes

brought down. I also don't know what will come next. But nothing will come next until the current autocratic regime falls. If what comes next is no better, or worse, than what they have now, then let's hope the masses take to the streets again. There are a few more regimes around the world I would like to see fall (ahem . . .) -- systems designed to convert the modest wealth of the many into the extravagant wealth of the few; systems that only respond to the concerns of corporations, not of the people; systems that deny the reality of climate change and resource depletion for the sake of the next election and the next quarterly profit statement. The world is reaching a tipping point. I sincerely hope it will come fast enough. And in any case, are you saying that the people of Egypt should remain oppressed by a "torturing, dictatorial thug" until their revolution earns the good-house-keeping-seal-of-approval from America's liberal class, that can't even implement a single-payer health care system, let alone end two pointless wars in one of the poorest regions on earth? Would you wait?

[Catherina]

25. Thank you!

[lutherj]

29. Beautiful signature image. :)

[oberliner]

28. What are the other regimes around the world that you would like to see fall? nt

[lutherj]

30. Something closer to home. nt.

[JVS]

71. Quebec will be free, mon ami!

[SidDithers]

82. ...

Sid

[NuclearDem]

90. Oh, you mean the--

Oh.

Okie dokie.

[coalition_unwilling]

66. Bravo! Well said. -n/t

[Le Taz Hot]

72. +1 n/t

[RandySF]

11. Please see editorial correction under original post.

[leftstreet]

'creates a great unknown'

Well, I think we're getting a strong indication of what the people of Egypt want.

It's pretty much a 'known' at this point

[Igel]

38. Except that what you "know" and others "know" is quite different.

Pretty much every reporter reports the "fact" that what the protestors want is what the reporter and his audience wants.

Islamist reporter, they want an Islamist state.

Secular, liberal reporter, they want a secular, liberal state.

You can't reconcile all the differences except to say that the crowd has a thousand opinions but without a way of finding compromise only one is likely to win.

[leftstreet]

44. Both reporters would be full of shit

Egyptians say they want employment, affordable food and shelter, an end to govt corruption, and redistribution of wealth.

The reporters are simply speculating over how the people will get those things

[stevenleser]

91. And what the people want may not matter to who grabs power n/t

[Hissyspit]

13. Mubarak should be removed.

Situation has been untenable for years and there is no other way, apparently. Hope for the best. Could get worse, yes, but not by much. I don't think we are looking at a theocratic takeover (I will own my analysis, too.)

[tavalon]

16. Anyone aware of the delicate balance in the Middle East is holding their breath

Sure, I want Egypt to have a democracy, even a democratic socialism, but there are denied nukes pointed every which way. This is a scary time. I am praying to my Goddess for their protection but I know she'll watch but not interfere as always.

[Turborama]

18. My take on this....

Hoping for an Indonesian style "Reformasi": http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x290024

[riderinthestorm]

20. 40% unemployment. 2/3 under 30 yrs old. Change is coming, brace yourself.

I'm not jumping up and down either but it was inevitable when the dictatorship appropriated so much wealth and has left so much of the population so desperate.

I have no idea what comes next (and fear a military junta take-over or islamist regime) but whatever happens, it was a direct product of the current dictator's impoverishment of his people.

[RandySF]

22. You almost make it sound like us

An economy totally in the tank, wealth distributed like a second Guilded Age and we already had one assassination attempt this month.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Oh as bad as things are here, we are not there yet

not by any measure...

We are talking of 40+% OFFICIAL unemployment rate...

And like many other places in the third world, unlike us, any part time work is fully employed.

When we reach that level... you will know it... hopefully we will never do.

[Better Believe It]

21. So did you take the same position regarding the anti-aparthied and ANC movement in South Africa?

We didn't know ahead of time which way that revolution might have gone.

And can't support any movements against dictorships anywhere in the world because we can't know in advance the ultimate outcome.

And extending that logic to the United States we couldn't have supported the first American revolution, or the second one to abolish slavery or any movements demanding social justice because you just don't know with certainly the final outcome.

[RandySF]

24. I had a better sense of Mandela and the ANC.

than I do what comes after Mubarek in Egypt

[oberliner]

31. How are things going there nowadays?

You don't hear a lot about South Africa in the US media much anymore.

Here is an interesting piece form an Australian source:

South Africa still struggling with apartheid's legacy

http://www.abc.net.au/correspondents/content/2011/s3124747.htm

[Hissyspit]

55. So they should have kept Apartheid?

[oberliner]

73. Should have kept apartheid?!? Is that some kind of joke?

I am asking for a good source of information on the current political situation in South Africa.

I posted an interesting article about the challenges they have faced (and continue to face) in working to move past the legacy of apartheid.

Generally there does not seem to be a lot of good, detailed info about how the country is currently faring in the US media.

[Hissyspit]

85. Guess I misread your motivation.

Many in this thread are arguing against democratic revolution (for whatever ulterior motives they have) because thre's a chance it might not result in Utopia.

[PufPuf23]

68. Thanks nt

[shanti]

32. a hungry man, is an angry man

everywhere.

[scarletwoman]

33. Nobody ever knows what comes next. All we know is that what has been has become untenable.

I will unequivocally cheer on the Egyptian people in the streets putting their lives on the line to throw off the yoke of a corrupt and oppressive regime. I don't give a damn about what it means for *us*, or for Israel.

The people of Egypt have the inalienable right to take control of their own fate:

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

sw

[Desertrose]

49. Thank you SW!!! +1000

"Nobody ever knows what comes next. All we know is that what has been has become untenable.

I will unequivocally cheer on the Egyptian people in the streets putting their lives on the line to throw off the yoke of a corrupt and oppressive regime. I don't give a damn about what it means for *us*, or for Israel."



ME TOO!!


:hug:

[scarletwoman]

52. Thanks, DR. I can't really wrap my head around the idea that there are some DUers who aren't moved

by the clear and unmistakable demonstration of the human desire for freedom from oppression.

:loveya:
sw

[Desertrose]

57. Well...I can't wrap my head around a lot of DUer's anymore.

;)

I think this is so incredible....I get goosebumps listening to the news from Egypt. Some brave buncha souls,huh?

We are all gonna owe these people a lot....they are leaders. So brave & courageous....watching people claim their own power. WOW. I stand in awe.

This is a world changer.....very interesting timing (coming up to 2012)...and starting in the ancient land of Egypt. My gut tells me they are going to come out of this whole time much better off. Hope I'm right.


:loveya::hug:
DR

[Name removed]

69. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Grey]

64. absolutely right, thank you.

[Zhade]

80. Hear hear!

NT!

[EFerrari]

34. You are right that there are a lot of risks in this situation.

But it's clear that the people want real democracy, not this sham they have been living under.

Religion-based parties are illegal in Egypt at the moment.

[harun]

36. Exactly what the rulers of Egypt have been saying for the last 30 years.

And it is complete BS.

[scarletwoman]

37. Thank you. I'm ashamed that this OP is getting any recs. (nt)

[emulatorloo]

43. DU is a discussion board. People want to discuss things n/t

[scarletwoman]

50. Did I say anything at all to disuade discussion?

As far as I know, lamenting that certain opinions are being supported is still part of discussion.

[emulatorloo]

77. Maybe the thread is being recommended because of the counter-opinions.

At least that is my impression. Last time I read thru it was pretty interesting.

[jonnyblitz]

70. that was deep. nt

[emulatorloo]

78. Well, some people don't seem to get it.

Looks like a pretty good dialogue in this thread.

Lately the threads are one line topics or platitudes, with a bunch of "+1s" and smilies.

When I posted that, people were actuallly talking in this thread. Which is kind of interesting.

[harun]

74. It is out of complete ignorance. If they are getting their info from the Corporate

Media it is expected they would think this way. Unfortunately many at DU still watch the Corporate Media for "news".

[woo me with science]

39. It is possible to have realistic concerns and apprehensions about what may happen,

while simultaneously being tremendously moved and even thrilled by the sight of so many fighting against oppression and attempting to take their futures into their own hands.

I suspect that most here are feeling some of both.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[leftstreet]

47. +1

This should be an OP

Nicely done

[scarletwoman]

48. Great post! Thank you for making some very relevant points. (nt)

[tekisui]

86. Damn. I missed it. It got deleted.

[scarletwoman]

87. Yeah, I saw that earlier. I can't imagine why it got deleted, it was intelligent and not at all

agressive or offensive, imho.

I regret that I can't really remember what exactly the post said, only that it was a viewpoint I felt I could wholeheartedly endorse.

sw

[Catherina]

62. Applause! n/t

[Grey]

65. Nicely put..... Cheers

[coalition_unwilling]

67. Bravo! Wish I could rec your reply - n/t

[harun]

75. ^^ this is why I still come to DU, thanks!

[purrFect]

42. The authoritarians are crapn their pants right now

And sending the same MSG, can't have the brown people having democracy.

[Name removed]

56. Deleted message

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[Lydia Leftcoast]

46. IF the radical Islamic groups take over, it will be because

successive Egyptian governments have failed to meet the peoples' needs.

I remember reading once about how the Islamic organizations were the main source of food shelves, health care, and literacy training in the poor areas.

[Lucian]

54. So, Egypt should keep their corrupt government to keep Israel at ease?

Gotcha.

It's always about Israel. Why does everyone tiptoe around that country when it's just as much at fault with the mess in the Mideast as every other country there?

[Desertrose]

61. Playing it safe never guarantees anything.

When things get so bad, sometimes any risk is better than continuing the way things are.

Change is uncertain and messy...but sometimes that's all ya got.


These are brave people....demanding change and for their government to actually be for the people. What a concept.

[datasuspect]

76. well, self-determination can be kind of messy

but when the will of the people starts to assert itself, hardline authoritarians will always shit their pants.

[Avalux]

79. What is a "western style democracy"?

If you're referring to this country, my hope is they can do it better.

Yes, there is a huge unknown if Mubarak is ousted. However, what's happening is not fueled by Islamic extremism. The protesters are chanting "Muslim and Christian, we are all Egyptian". Christian Egyptian protesters have vowed to protect their fellow Islamic Egyptians when they pray. There is a real show of solidarity among the people; the young, educated and unemployed Egyptians who want a secular country.

I'll take the unknown over Mubarak.

[RegieRocker]

81. Fear of the unknown is futile and serves no purpose

what so ever.

[Oilwellian]

83. We're calling for Obama to throw Mubarek out?

I had no idea he wielded such great power over another country. The Egyptian people on the other hand...

[Bluenorthwest]

84. How is what you are saying different in any way from any event

any change, for that matter any day as a human being? Are you used to always knowing where things are 'headed' and always being correct? Life never a mystery to you?
Note, today things there are not as they were last month. This means every outcome, including Mubarek staying, is a great unknown. What you are seeing is the result of his government, what makes you think there is the option to go back? What is not a great unknown about that?
Do you know that your next meal will not be your last? I don't. Going to eat it anyway.