Ok yesterday an unamed source said that 24-48 hours for tipping point

[nadinbrzezinski]

Today we had Hosni tell Christianne Ammampour that he is tired, wants to go, but fears chaos if he goes.


Ok who was around for the fall of Marcos? I think we had a similar dynamic near the end. When Marcos was going, but, but I am a servant, and I fear chaos. I am not at home so checking on this will take me a little while, so give me a second

Here a good timeline of that OTHER revolution

http://www.fragmentsweb.org/TXT2/philiptx.html

There are echoes today...

[Warpy]

1. Thanks, I knew I'd seen it somewhere before

and Marcos was exactly where.

Likely this one will proceed along the same lines. Either Mubarak will realize the continued chaos is because he's still clinging to power and leave, or he'll be forced out at gunpoint.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. we both have been around for a few

this is not really fun

[Matariki]

3. Or go out like Ceaucescu

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Yeah but the interview with Christiane (not a coincidence that was

part of the conversation with the WH)... had echoes more familiar to Marcos.

But yes, he is getting close to having to chose death or living however long he still has, in exile.

[Adsos Letter]

5. Friday morning (Cairo time) is when many are saying the real shove will come.

I'd like to know how things are unfolding in the other urban centers; Alexandria, Suez, the Heliopolis suburb of Cairo, etc.
My understanding is that the rural areas remain quiet, but I am as reliant on the media as anyone.

[Dappleganger]

6. Feb 4 there's another big protest being called for.

[Adsos Letter]

8. That would be the Friday morning, post-mosque protest, I think.

I understand that much of Egypt's youth is secular, and that this is a secular revolution; still, it would be interesting to find out how the religious figures address this.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Alas that is part of the problem

the media has been harassed... I am being nice ok... so they want to keep them quiet.

That could lead to a bloodbath. Unlike Tianamen, almost everybody and their system has a video camera and a still these days.

[Adsos Letter]

9. It could be a bloodbath, I agree. Not sure what you mean about the media, though...

The media have been seriously attacked, and a definite attempt has been made to shut them down, but we are still getting info. Hopefully, we will still get accurate information tomorrow.

As for the Egyptian public; those who are reliant completely on State news are getting a badly distorted version of events, but I wonder how much accurate info is managing to reach the Egyptian public?

ON EDIT: OK, I just read where AlJ's live video feed had been shut down. Now I understand what you meant, Nadin. Yes; the potential for a bloodbath just increased mightily.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. My apologies for the lack of clarity

was posting from the coffee shop on IPAD, on the wireless keyboard. I notice more errors on it.

[Adsos Letter]

11. I don't think you made any errors, Nadin. I edited my response

to reflect the closure of the Al Jazeera outlet, which I was unaware of when I originally posted.

:hi: from one History MA to another.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. We should unite

:hi:

[Cleita]

12. There is another dynamic.

Middle East Regimes like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have supported Mubarek and oppressed their citizens. If Mubarak is ousted and the protestors prevail, it will probably stir up the nationalism in those countries among others. I believe those despots in those countries are pressuring Mubarek to dig in his heels because there will be consequences for all them if the people of Egypt prevail.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. The contagion is already spreading

listening to a visiting professor of Arab History in the morning on NPR, he explained that this is looking more and more like 1989 in Eastern Europe and governance will have to either dig in and get thrown out, or institute reforms hoping that they can hold on for a little while. This is definitely spreading though.