What is your scenario for the economy in the next year or two?

[kentuck]

Do you expect the unemployment rate to drop by a couple of percentage points? Or perhaps stay about the same?

Do you expect more people will poll that we are on the "right track"?

Can the President be re-elected if the unemployment rate is still high?

What does the crystal ball say?

[Speck Tater]

1. In a nutshell: Enjoy electricity and running water while you still have it. nt

[Cleita]

2. No crystal ball here but my

practical sense tells me that the Obama administration is going to have to get on the ball if they want him to be reelected in 2012. That means he's going to have to tell the Republican obstructionists and Blue Dog dems to do what's right for the country or get out of the way. That's the kind of compromise that will work for him not caving into all their demands and blackmails.

[kentuck]

3. Can't we just compromise the SS and Medicare programs a little...?

...so we can get another extension on the unemployment and middle class taxcuts? Nothing wrong with that, is there??

[Cleita]

5. Since I depend on those two programs to keep

me off the streets and not homeless, I give you a resounding NOOOOO!

:hi:

[Little Star]

36. Nope!

[defendandprotect]

40. After two years, why would you think Obama will stop playing ball with GOP?

[closeupready]

43. Was just going to post the same question. That's naive, at best.

Ain't gonna happen. He's compromised halfway through his term, he's simply going to continue.

[stevedeshazer]

4. Inflation.

The thirty-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 3.75% to 5% in less than two weeks.

[justinsb]

6. It depends

Right now they are making things seem better than they are with money they don't have (stimulus/tax cuts/etc). If they continue to do that things in 2012 will be largely the same as they are now, if they don't things will get worse. In either case the longer term looks bleak as there is no plan to address the underlying problems, nor is there any discussion of possible solutions, or any real admission that there is a problem.

[onehandle]

7. Official projections are above 8%, maybe still above 9%. I give Obama about a 55% chance.

Between Republican redistricting and Boehner's House slowing progress/tearing down Obama's accomplishments for the next two years, it will not be nearly a landslide. If a win at all.

[taught_me_patience]

8. Gonna be guns blazing

The 2% payroll tax holiday is a real game changer. My wife and I are going to have $4k extra this year to spend. Inflation might start creeping in, though.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. And the people around you...?

[taught_me_patience]

30. Yeah my collegues will get at least $2k

The economy is already at the edge of surging forward and this will put it over the top.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. And your non-colleagues?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Resolve into the sunset.

[TexasObserver]

11. Continued growth until employment gains show up.

A year ago, I expected a second stim package to be passed by summer, and unemployment below 9% by the election. I was wrong about both, and they were connected.

The first quarter of 2011 may see some jitters, but by the end of the second quarter it will be obvious the GOP House will play ball to get necessary expenditures.

If the unemployment rate doesn't drop significantly by summer 2012, the president won't likely be reelected.

[Newest Reality]

12. The systemic collapse will continue.

We see it in slow motion now and the boondoggles that appear to contain it will continue to fail. McPravda will continue to support the simulation of a functional society as per the dictates of their deadbeat rich owners in order to curtail a massive realization of the gravity of said collapse.

Energy prices will continue to rise on all fronts as inflation continues to rise incrementally to the point that over-tapped Americans will make very dire choices about which necessities they can afford to utilize. Food prices and other commodities will continue to rise significantly, both because of shortages and due investor's bailing from other speculations as they seek safe-ground to hedge their bets. Some will come to realize that the breakdown itself was allowed due to the fact that Peak Oil had been reached and it would be better to have a more controlled and managed collapse than to let it occur on its own.

As the expectations for jobs to appear out of nowhere are diminished by the obvious break in the consumer cycle in the US, their will be increasing tension and chaos in various parts of the country, (as well as the World). Those who have not become a part of the growing and permanent Underclass will become more agitated and fearful for their security. The Underclass will become more prevalent as they increase in numbers before a background of closing business and malls while ghost towns are taken over with a rustic, old-west abandon. Like will become very difficult and dangerous for incredible numbers of people.

Meanwhile, the government well take a more overt, pro-Fascist attitude in attempts to contain the breakdowns in various areas. There will be more internal "terrorist" rhetoric in attempts to justify unrest and dissent. The technology that is in place will be utilized to control and contain the increasingly hostile results of collapse that will be at first sporadic and then chronic. Fusion Centers, in place now, will coordinate the effort while the media will present distorted propaganda in order to shape and manufacture the perception of what is actually occurring in order to both keep the support of the surviving classes and to discourage and manipulate the poor and Underclass.

The upper-class income folks, along with the deadbeat rich, will continue to fuel a more covert, luxury economy and they will continue to segment themselves off from the struggling masses who have been written-off. Private security firms and bodyguards will flourish and become, along with luxury item producers, a massive growth industry. Many who can afford it will also be creating safe havens in other countries or even migrating permanently to their encampments as the breakdown continues. The fabric of the country will be torn asunder and the results will vary from area to area. As the fragile chains of supply break-down due to localized chaos, less and less services and commodities will be available requiring a long, difficult shift to communities and decentralized production ... once the dust settles and the dead are buried, (so to speak).

From there, shock after shock on every front will contribute to the fragmentation of America and a new way of living will, out of necessity, result.

[northoftheborder]

15. This scenario is what I fear also.

[kentuck]

16. Step One: A shot across their bow...

We should make financial agreements with all our allies that American-based corporations shall not and cannot hide their assets in the banks of our allies. Then we will tax them accordingly, in a progressive fashion, until we get our economy going again and until we get our tax base stabilized. They should not be permitted to hide their profits and assets.

[pscot]

25. Excellent plan

I do, however, foresee one or two problems.

[kentuck]

27. However, and we should emphasize....

...we should not surrender for "one or two problems"? Would you not agree?

[pscot]

31. Oh, mos definitely

But who is this "we" you speak of with regard to obtaining these extremely useful agreements. Wouldn't someone from the government need to be involved? That's the part that seems problematic.

[kentuck]

32. Usually the Secretary of state and diplomats negotiate treaties...

..at the President's behest, was my understanding? Honored as law by our Constitution, with the full faith of the government?

[blindpig]

44. During, or before your scenario is completed...

revolution. Not in two years I don't think, but by and bye, depending on how things develop. They will give us no choice.

[lib2DaBone]

13. Mr. Obama should have embarked on a massive Ifrastructure program...

Rebuild America.. brought the troops home...provided medicare for all.

The cost to rebuild our decaying roads, bridges and electic grid was $5 trillion.. and that was 5 years ago.

There are still Trillions of Dollars of derivitives out there waiting to explode. No amount of bailouts can stop this.

Companies are still outsorcing jobs and being rewarded by our congress.

Like the earlier poster said... "enjoy electric lights and running water while you can."

[DCBob]

14. slow, painful but steady improvement... including jobs.

unless there is another crisis like perhaps EU collapse.

[Odin2005]

17. Double-dip back into recession.

[sharesunited]

18. Historically low consumer price inflation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

even as consumer prices go through the roof.

Sorry, just no money for COLAs.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

19. 15% unemployment, more bank failures, maybe another war

we have to bring jobs back from overseas and also create jobs.

We're offshoring/exporting too many jobs.

[Autumn]

20. It's going to fucking suck.

Magic Meatball says it been that way and it's not going to fucking change. Unemployment will get worse. No we are not on the right track. Who the fuck knows. I don't trust the crystal ball, I have Magic Meatball, and it hasn't lied to me yet.

[L0oniX]

21. Collapse. n/t

[cali]

42. I doubt it. It'll more likely be a marginal improvement in most places

in so far as unemployment goes. In some places things will not improve and may well get worse and in yet others, things will improve more markedly. In my state, unemployment is 5.6% and some good things are happening.

[Taitertots]

22. Continued recovery

Unemployment continues to drop back down.
Inflation stays low.




Republicans act like they caused it with tax cuts. Obama doesn't say anything. Republicans win in 2012 despite sabotaging any progress we try to make. Inflationary chicken littles cut spending, gut public services, and push us back into another huge recession.

[Quantess]

23. The floor is about to collapse and the roof is on the verge of caving in.

I predict total economic disaster.

[EstimatedProphet]

24. I expect a year from now we will be saying "What happened to 2011?"

[RagAss]

26. People will roast their family pets on the grill.

[coalition_unwilling]

28. I expect we will see stagnation -- no inflation but little to no improvement

in unemployment or wealth distribution.

Sorry to say it, but Obama does not deserve to be re-elected. If the election were held today, he would lose to Romeny or Palin. I am not happy about this and I say it as one who supported, donated and volunteered for Obama in 2008. I won't get fooled again.

[theophilus]

29. Boom then Repuke elected Pres. then bust (or worse)...timeframe three to five years. n/t

[Safetykitten]

33. I am in the slow decline camp. Nothing too serious at once, but a slow slide to a very disturbing

place.

2012 will find an economy limping along. The unemployment rate officially will be around 8% but unofficially at about 23%. Those with jobs with benefits will be a much, much smaller group. 1099 folks will see a big increase. The next housing debacle will begin in earnest about mid-2011 with Fannie/Freddie needing billions and billions to stay solvent. Commercial real estate types will be pushing the government for a bail out at the same time of the begging for a Fannie/Freddie bailout. It will probably pass in the forms of massive tax write offs for commercial real estate.

With no real need for office space in the traditional form, buildings will be vacant for years, up to 2020. With more poawerfull computers and internet speed increases, offices will not be needed.

Many people unemployed from 2007 will find themselves not working at the salary they got in 2007, or not working at all.

Healthcare as planned, (HCR) will find a collapse in 2012. Hospitals will be brought to the breaking point taking care of the uninsured and the underinsured, which by 2012 will approach 100 million people. HC companies will still be at the game, making life difficult if not impossible.

The polls will show that a majority of people in 2012 will find the country on the wrong track.

There is no way possible that President Obama will be elected. It will just not happen. This is the beginning of the Carter malaise years of 2011 and 2012. Look for history to repeat itself.

[kentuck]

34. The Republicans goal is to get rid of Barack Obama...

..whichever way they can.

They will use their "propaganda" to blame the bad economy entirely on Barack Obama. Bush's responsibility has long since passed, they will say. They are wrong, of course, but they will say that.

The President needs to address the American people. He needs to speak frankly with them, as FDR did in his "fireside chats". The President needs the people on his side or he cannot win. The "people" are the only ones that can defeat the propaganda.

Creating jobs is the number one priority of this Administration and the Repubs have the opposite objective. If jobs are created, Obama stands a better chance at re-election.

[sweetapogee]

37. you are of course

correct and the job of the Democrats is to get rid of the pukes. What else is new?

Anyway, the economy is the key for 2012, unemployment, inflation and the overall mood of the country will decide 2012. Just having an uptick in the numbers is not going to be good enough, I fully expect the opposition to have a plan, we must also have a plan for the economy, not just criticism.

I have mentioned it before and no one has offered an opposing view, in 2012, the Senate has 21 dems plus 2 indies up for re-election vs. 10 for pugs. Most of the pukes are in safe red states while a number of dems are in red/purple and are highly vulnerable. At least 5 are on the hot seat and I expect we will have more than a few frustrating moments with dem senators next congress. My own sen Bob Casey Jr.(D-PA), will in my opinion move to the center as time goes on even so, I think he has more than a few sleepless nights ahead of him. I do not understand why dems, if they were going to support tax cuts this time, didn't make it 4 years because while things should be better 2 years from now, I doubt they will be wildly better and we will be having the same discussion then as now which is not in our best interests during an election year.

Of course there are the unpredictable things, a terrorist attack, puke investigations (i fear for investigations into the stimulus program), and the war. We have to run like we are 30 points behind. But to the OP, my personal crystal ball reveals some dark stormy weather ahead. Hopefully we act now, while there is time because if the economy is where it's at now in 10 months from now, we are going to have a rough time of it.

[HopeHoops]

35. It will improve slightly, despite Republican efforts.

[defendandprotect]

39. $2 Trillion Debt Crisis Threatens to Bring Down 100 US Cities

Published on Monday, December 20, 2010 by The Guardian/UK
$2tn Debt Crisis Threatens to Bring Down 100 US Cities
Overdrawn American cities could face financial collapse in 2011, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and derailing the US economic recovery. Nor are European cities safe – Florence, Barcelona, Madrid, Venice: all are in trouble
by Elena Moya



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/20/debt-crisis-threatens-us-cities

[raouldukelives]

41. I think we will see 5% unemployment

As most of the long term unemployed will stop being counted. If you don't count them they stop mattering. Wall Street will rally and the President will applaud the progress we've made.