Well the Quinnipac poll's voter demographics are "cracked"--independents are the highest represented

[Godhumor]

No, they don't say that on the website or in their methodology for the latest BS poll...but some simple math shows this has to be true.

The poll is here: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1575

Again, I don't have the actual methodology for the sample, but what I do have is math:

Question 29 on Libya, asking if the US should use military force to remove Gaddafi gives the following results for "No":

40%(R) 47%(D) 54%(I) for a total of 48%

Do you see what's odd there? Both Republicans and Democrats are below 48%, which means Independents have to be larger than both of those groups to pull the total to 48%. There is no ifs or buts on this--for this to work, the Is must have the largest weight in the poll.

So, I did some basic number crunching off the published results, and what I came up with is the following weights:

30%(R), 30%(D), 40%(I). These weights work for every single result I tested in the poll. Now, we don't have the fractionals for the percentages, so they're probably a little off, and it is possible that either Dems or Reps are a bit higher than the other. However, I am very confident in saying the following:

Quinnipac believes there are about an equal number of Democrats and Republicans while Independents outnumber both.

So the question is, how well does that jibe with political reality?

[mod mom]

1. I was just polled by Quinnipiac (1st time) and although I have considered myself

a Democrat (usually say progressive) I answered "independent" in this poll because I'm so upset with the direction of the party. I even answered "I like Obama as a person but I don't like his policies."

The poll also asked if I would vote for Obama or a Republican in 2012, with no offer of a possible 3rd party option. Of course I said Obama, but had they asked about a 3rd party, I would have said "have to see who the choice was."

[Godhumor]

2. You know, I never usually comment about recs or unrecs, but who the hell unrecs basic math?

That's just...odd.

[Godhumor]

3. Bumping, see if the new title gets any more attention

Call me selfish, but I put a bit of work in this and would like to have it seen while we have mutiple threads on the poll up.

[former9thward]

4. In my district Republicans were in the lead 8 years ago.

Then Democrats took the lead in 2006. Now Independents have taken the lead.

[SidDithers]

5. K&R...nt

Sid

[MadHound]

6. It is fairly well accepted that in the US, the largest number of people are indeed Independent.

This has been proven time and again. The number vary from year to year, decade to decade, but the overall pattern remains the same.
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/145463/Democratic-Party-Drops-2010-Tying-Year-Low.aspx>

Sounds like Quinnipac's demographics are pretty much spot on.

[Godhumor]

7. Hmm, little different than the source I used to check, but thanks for the link

Fair enough. Changed the title to be a bit more factual, in light of this.