Reply #7: If they're saying 200,000...

[punpirate]

... one can be reasonably sure that it's more like 300,000. The natural tendency is to lowball estimates of the enemy's troop strength (one of the things which undid the US in SE Asia), and while the US has fairly consistently tried to describe this insurgency as a "handful of dead-enders," that's just the extreme of the tendency.

There's a long history wrapped up in this insurgency. The Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 convinced Zawahiri that it was possible, and while the same has not happened in Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, extremists see the chaos in Iraq as ripe for exploitation. Combine this with the natural and understandable tendency for Iraqis themselves to oust an occupying force, there's going to be continuing supply of people in both groups, the extremists and the nationalists alike.

Elections aren't going to make this situation any better, and if Allawi is "elected," as many suspect, expect that to lead to new levels of repression, making the situation measurably worse. *sigh*

We certainly did open up Pandora's Box with this little invasion....