Elections won't stem violence in Iraq, analysts say

[leftchick]

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/world/10737805.htm

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The main problem linked to the election, analysts say, is that many if not most Sunnis - who constitute up to 37 percent of Iraq's population - are refusing to participate either as voters or candidates. They cite threats from insurgents or say they do not believe fair elections can be held while Iraq is under foreign military occupation.

Experts on Iraq say the results are likely to be heavily skewed toward the groups that are participating: the Shiite Muslim population concentrated in southern Iraq, comprising 60 percent of the population, and the ethnic Kurd population in the north, which is mainly Sunni but does not share the Arab Sunni sense of disaffection with the electoral process.

The Transitional Assembly "will be working on a new constitution, and the Sunnis will not have a say in this because they will not be part of the parliamentary authority," said Rime Allaf, an associate fellow in Arab studies at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

In spite of pledges by top Shiite leaders to guarantee Sunni positions within the new government and legislature, analysts say the Sunni-Shiite split is only likely to widen because of the Arab Sunnis' non-participation.