US hopes of secular Iraqi state fade away

[allemand]

By Paul McGeough Chief Herald Correspondent in Baghdad

CONSERVATIVE religious parties have surged to a runaway lead in the counting of votes to appoint a government to run Iraq for the next four years.

With more than 60 per cent of votes tallied, Washington's hopes that the former prime minister Iyad Allawi might pull enough support to build a secular administration have faded dramatically.

Instead, a religious alliance is in the box seat. These parties are already imposing a strict religious code on daily life across swathes of the country and are closely aligned with neighbouring Iran, one of George Bush's "axis of evil" enemies.

The religious Shiites and the Kurdish parties have maintained their iron grip on the south and north respectively, but with 89 per cent of votes counted in the Baghdad melting pot, both Dr Allawi and his arch rival and one-time Pentagon darling, Ahmed Chalabi, face marginalisation.

More:
http://smh.com.au/news/world/us-hopes-of-secular-iraqi-state-fade-away/2005/12/20/1135032020005.html

Juan Cole comments:

Al-Zaman is reporting early returns for Baghdad. The United Iraqi Alliance is reputed to have 58 percent there, with the Iraqi Concord Front (Sunni) getting 19 percent. Allawi brings up the rear with 14 percent, a disastrous performance given that his list seems to have done nothing anywhere else. The list will likely see its strength in parliament halved.

These results suggest a very strong position for the United Iraqi Alliance. There were 69 seats at issue in Baghdad province, the largest single lot. If the UIA got 40 of them, that is a huge victory. Add those 40 to the likely 70 or so the UIA got in the solidly Shiite provinces, and you have 110. Another 8 in Babil and it is 118. A similar number in Diyala and you'd have 126. Then they may get some of the reserved seats when the reapportionment is done. They will be very close to having the 138 it needs to form a government. They can certainly pick up a few small allies and do it, perhaps without needing either the Sunnis or the Kurds (though they will need an initial coalition to gain the 2/3s needed to elect a president to appoint the prime minister).

In other words, the Shiite fundamentalist parties have won again. The secularists lost badly. Allawi and Chalabi are out of the game. The question is only whether the Shiites align with the Sunnis or the Kurds, or both.
http://www.juancole.com/2005/12/fundamentalist-shiites-will-dominate.html

Results for Eight Provinces, including Baghdad

Baghdad Province:
-UIA: 1,403,901
-Consensus: 403,900
-Allawi: 327,154
-Risaliyoun: 4,410
-Al-Mutlag: 36,670
-Kurdish: 25,308
-Alusi: 13,185

Duhok Province:
-Kurdish: 344,717
-Islamic Kurdish: 28,401
-Rafidayn Christian: 4,095
-Allawi: 2,327
-Masoud Brifkani (Independent): 1,341
-Yezidi: 495

Arbil Province:
-Kurdish: 575,890
-Islamic Kurdish: 19,515
-Allawi: 2,420
-Action Party: 1,720
-Rafidayn: 1,599
-Turkuman: 1,144

Suleimaniya Province:
-Kurdish: 671,814
-Islamic Kurdish: 83,208
-Other Islamic Kurdish: 10,330
-Allawi: 1,806
-The Solution Party (PKK affiliate): 1,140

Babil Province:
-UIA: 417,070
-Allawi: 84,388
-Consensus: 31,455
-Risaliyoun: 8,999
-Al-Mutlag: 2,978
-Islamic Loyalty party: 2,670

Karbala Province:
-UIA: 209,790
-Allawi: 35,452
-Risaliyoun: 8,059
-Islamic Loyalty party: 3,413
-Islamic Coalition: 2,662
-The Reformers: 1,437

Najaf Province:
-UIA: 323,820
-Allawi: 28,755
-Risliyoun: 14,805
-Al-Zurfi: 3,044
-Al-Dabagh: 2,398
-Iraq Future: 1,843

Misan Province:
-UIA: 275,128
-Allawi: 13,739
-Risaliyoun: 10,699
-Islamic Movement: 2,707
-Islamic Loyalty party: 2,054
-Reform Coalition: 1,490

Basra Province:
-UIA: 612,206
-Allawi: 87,134
-Consensus: 36,997
-Uprising Movement: 10,476
-Iraqi National Congress: 2,723

(...)

UIA: 130 (likely to increase slightly, includes satellite Sadrist lists)
Consensus: 45 (likely to increase slightly)
Kurdish: 55
Allawi: 20 (likely to decrease slightly)
Mutlag: 15 (likely to decrease slightly)

http://talismangate.blogspot.com/2005/12/results-for-eight-provinces-including.html