Reply #168: If so, it's a monumental miscalculation by the Republicans...

[regnaD kciN]

To be quite cold-blooded about it, there are far more people who would be negatively affected by a ban on abortion than a ban on gay marriage. In the former case, one could generally count on more fundies being mobilized to vote for a ban than you could gays and lesbians voting against it (while lots of "tolerant" straights wouldn't see it as something that concerned them enough to get out and vote), so it was a winning issue for the G.O.P. But a ban on abortion? For every Religious Right type you will get to the polls, you'll get two or three irate pro-choicers (mostly women, but also men who want the option to be open so that their girlfriend or daughter doesn't have to have a baby they don't want) who see it as a matter of protecting their own rights.

My guess would be that, should Roe be overturned and the decision returned to the states, any attempt to put an abortion ban on a state ballot will likely hurt the Republicans in that election. Pro-choicers (once you motivate them to get themselves to the polls) are likely to vote for Democratic candidates as well.