Reply #18: There will be no war against Iran.

[megatherium]

Only saber rattling. We simply cannot afford a war, it would result in the destruction of oil production in the region, or worse, a totally out-of-control conflagation.

Now, me, I want a war. It would be exciting. It would probably result in the collapse of some regimes that desperately deserve to be taken down -- particularly the regime in Washington. It would at once force us to confront our suicidal dependence on fossil fuels, and global warming as well.

But much as I want a war, I know that speculation about an Iranian Bourse is a less-than-convincing reason for a war. I am not going to read everything that crosses my path with the breathless anticipation of it being a harbinger of war. I believe in the principle of greatest disappointment: the outcome in any situation is usually, well, disappointing. What would be disappointing here would be nothing happening, just the annoying status quo (sabre rattling, conspiracy theorizing, etc).

I'm being facetious here, of course, but I remember being afraid of a nuclear war in south Asia, spring of 2002. As it happened, both India and Pakistan had good reasons to convince the other side that they were prepared to go to war -- but both sides had good reasons to not want a war to actually start. Eventually both sides understood that neither side was about to initiate hostilities, and a sincere effort for peace began. Well, now the US (and Israel) want the Iranians to believe we mean business, and the Iranians likewise want us to think they're ready to fight as well. But I do not think either side is preparing to initiate hostilities, the cost of which would be unacceptable (justifying no possible objective of any such conflict).