Reply #32: Derivative traders see Feb US payrolls at 203,000

[UpInArms]

The gamblers seem to be scaling back on their bets :eyes:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-09T132731Z_01_N09301906_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - Traders in the second of four derivatives auctions related to this week's U.S. payrolls data bet on Thursday the report will show U.S. employers added 203,000 non-farm jobs in February -- a bit below both Wednesday's initial auction and what economists expect.

The 203,000-job implied forecast was shy of the 208,000 forecast in Wednesday's auction and the median forecast of a seasonally adjusted 210,000-job gain from a poll of economists conducted by Reuters last week. The Labor Department will released its report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT).

The shift to a below-consensus result emerged in Thursday's auction in a concentration of betting around a result between 125,000 and 150,000 jobs, with traders putting a 10.6 percent probability on such an outcome.

Non-farm payrolls gained a seasonally adjusted 193,000 in January, though the government is likely to revise that figure in Friday's report.

Investors use the auctions to hedge against unwanted surprises in the report. Traders also use the auctions to speculate on the outcome.

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