|
I think the most likely possibility is that US forces will withdraw to the four megabases surrounding Baghdad. There they will brood, like crusaders in their fortresses, surrounded by people who hate them. The Iraqi Parliament, whenever it manages to meet, will invite the US to leave immediately, but delusional neo-cons will hang on until we're essentially driven out. The disposition of the Green Zone will be quite interesting, as there is the real possibility of hasty, Saigon-style evacuations.
It all hinges on the negotiations with Iran. The Persians can make life somewhat easier for the occupation, or they can make life immensely worse. It's really the only choice remaining to us, and no matter how it goes, many more Iraqis and US soldiers will die in the endgame of Bush's vanity war. It will be difficult to hide this from the American public, and we may hope this will be remembered in November.
|