Reply #16: Busy, busy days ahead... including Beige Book

[Zenlitened]

Per Wall Street Journal.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

7:45a.m. MBA Refinancing Index. Previous: +17.3%.
7:45a.m. ICSC Store Sales Index.For Jan 13. Previous: +0.7%.
8:30a.m. Dec Producer Price Index. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +2.0%.
8:30a.m. Dec Producer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +1.3%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index. For Jan 12. Previous: +1.7%.
9:15a.m. Dec Industrial Production. Expected: +0.1%. Previous: +0.2%.
9:15a.m. Dec Capacity Utilization. Expected: 81.8%. Previous: Unch.
1:00p.m. Jan NAHB Housing Market Index. Previous: 32.
2:00p.m. Fed's Beige Book.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: +16K. Previous: -26K.
8:30a.m. Dec Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: Unch.
8:30a.m. Dec Consumer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: Unch.
8:30a.m. Dec Housing Starts. Expected: -0.5%. Previous: +6.7%.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. Previous: -2.0%.
10:00a.m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index/ Previous: +0.1%.
12:00p.m. Jan Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Expected: 3.0. Previous: -2.3.

Where it's all going, I have no idea. I canceled a couple of limit orders today -- not because I'm worried about a collapse, but because my miserly orders had no chance of being filled with share prices climbing and climbing. :crazy:

I sat on the sidelines in November and December, telling myself there'd be at least a brief dip in January and I'd find my entry points for the couple of shares I'd like to add. But every day the numbers climb higher, the economic data is reported as strong (and taken at face value or, when necessary, rationalized away) and bearish analysts are on the verge of extinction.

So I'm fighting the lizard portion of my brain that says "don't miss out on the feeding frenzy!"... but wondering if the frenzy will ever end in a way that allows for real bargain-buying. There's so much money out there, and so many places to stash it.

Interesting article in the Boston Globe, noting the growth in International investing. Remember, not so very long ago, when investing overseas was considered high-risk? Now it's taken for granted as one more means of diversifying.

BOSTON CAPITAL: Movement abroad

By Steven Syre, Globe Columnist | January 16, 2007

The mutual fund business will remember 2006 as the year of the international investor.

Customers poured billions into mutual funds with international investing mandates. More than half of all customer cash aimed at long-term funds went into some kind of international or global category through the first 11 months of last year, according to Financial Research Corp. of Boston.

But international fund managers aren't alone investing more overseas. Funds labeled as diversified US stock funds are putting a significant amount of their cash into other markets. Better and deeper foreign stock markets are making it easier for all portfolio managers to pursue the fastest growth and best values worldwide.

(snip)

It's difficult to measure exactly how foreign stock investments affect the performance of any US stock fund. But it doesn't always help in the short run. (Emphasis mine. -- Z)

Danoff has almost certainly benefited from foreign investments over years, but Japanese stock holdings hurt his fund in 2006. Tillinghast clearly got a boost from foreign stocks when he outperformed 80 percent of competitors last year, despite holding as much as 12 percent of his money in cash at times.

(snip)

More:
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/01/16/movement_abroad/

Well, NOTHING helps me in the short run. My ability to time the market is utterly nonexistant. I just want to put some savings into a few tried-and-true investments for the long term. But I also find it hard to overcome the buyer's regret when I buy high only to see prices fall in a correction soon after -- even though I'm looking at a 10 to 15 year horizon. *sigh* I'd ike to be a Vulcan, but feel like a Ferengi at times like this! :D