Reply #10: But wait...This just in: Greenspan: Recession risk up - Reuters

[Lone_Star_Dem]

I kid you not.

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Risks of a recession have increased, but the Federal Reserve must be cautious in supporting the economy because global forces that have kept inflation in check are receding, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

"Earlier in the year, I was talking about a one-third probability of a recession," Greenspan told Reuters. "It's come up somewhat, but it's still at this stage somewhat less than 50 (percent)."

He said the biggest risk to the outlook for the U.S. economy would be a substantial fall in house prices. The economy could weather a mild decline in home values as long as there is a decrease in new home construction and inventories of unsold homes clear, the former Fed chief said.

"But if the whole thing festers, it will erode household balance sheets and eventually impact on what the critical support has been in this economy: consumer expenditures," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1717834820070917?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

What do you want to bet that by the time he's done pimping his book he'll raise that to 75% chance?