Reply #82: Loonie Watch

[TrogL]

(better late than never)

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0670 1.0670 1.0608 1.0634 -0.0020 -0.19% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0622 1.0667 1.0605 1.0648 -0.0001 -0.01% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0624 1.0660 1.0600 1.0646 -0.0002 -0.02% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0799 1.0810 1.0690 1.0643 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0642 1.0645 1.0642 1.0638 -0.0005 -0.05% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0730        1.0700 1.0633 -0.0005 -0.05% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0628 -0.0005 -0.05% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007  0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.85635 -0.00775  -0.90%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.91160 0.91160 0.91160 0.91160 -0.00855  -0.93%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007  124.260 124.260 123.520 117.465 -1.615    -1.36%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007  1.60300 1.60300 1.60300 1.61005 +0.01510  +0.95%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007   0.7006  0.7029  0.7006  0.7027 +0.0057   +0.82%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007  1.38230 1.38230 1.38230 1.37875 +0.00090  +0.07%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   163.35  163.35  161.90  162.10 -2.00     -1.22%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007  1.45770 1.45770 1.45770 1.46770 +0.00055  +0.04%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this fall's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Upside targets are hard to project if December extends this fall's rally into new uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0471 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.09. First support is today's low crossing at 106.05 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0471.

Analysis

Sorry, utter chaos at work. New resposibilities, new people to talk to, I've brought in new ideas and suddenly everybody's either getting a clue or going :wtf:.

I can't begin to call what's gonna happen to the loonie, given what's been going on in the rest of today's thread. If everything else were normal, I'd call for a gradual slide to approximately par with today's greenback. The problem is, I'm also calling for today's greenback to go in the toilet, the Euro to go out of its mind, and all the other currencies to do the old "when in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout". So I'm still seeing the loonie as the one stable currency out there hence, short money on the Euro, long money on the loonie, but I'm also seeing more people thinking long, winter coming (think oil prices), and the differences between Canadian and US banking laws, which is why Canada didn't have a S&L crisis back in the day and doesn't have a mortgage loan problem today. Somewhere I saw a listing of the top 20 international banks with exposure to mortgage losses and there isn't one Canadian institution on the list.

So what I'm calling for is a lot of long loonie buys at a fairly stable price somewhere about 2-4 cents below where it is now compared to a basket of currencies excluding the Euro and greenback - making it the de-facto oil currency. If OPEC switches to Euros that's all out the window and I'd be calling for the loonie to fall against the Euro, gain against the greenback and break even with the rest of the commonwealth currencies. If the Chinese start dumping their greenback's I could see them thinking about loonies rather than Euros so I'd see short loonies dropping drastically, long loonies holding even and perhaps the Euro losing ground against the Commonwealth with both the greenback and yen turning into toilet paper.