Reply #8: Not Good News...

[David in Canada]

This news is not the least bit unexpected. She has a husband in very poor health and herself suffered a heart attack a few years ago.

That said, this news is not good news for our side. Wyoming is a rather conservative state so our chance to pick it off now is actually reduced. A lot of people voted against her because they quite frankly dislike her. The fact that she scored around 55% against a primary challenger that was basically unknown attests to that.

Of course, IF Trauner has won last year, he could/would be in a decent chance for re-election after having had a chance to prove himself, and in fact, become rather popular to boot. Gov. Freudenthal won in 2002 against an asshole opponent but quickly proved himself and become popular despite the strong GOP lean.

However, with Ms. Not-So-Beloved out of the picture, his odds of winning actually DECREASE. This is, historically, a somewhat rare occurrence. There are examples where districts with a strong partisan lean one way will vote for an incumbent from the opposing party due to incumbency and personal popularity. There are only two districts that I can think of where this same phenomenon is currently present. These are CA-03 where John Doolittle is caught deep in the Abramoff scandal. The district is strong GOP. However, with the scandal and public backlash, his re-election campaign gives the Dems a good chance. If he retires or loses the primary, the Dems chances actually decrease.

The other district is, unfortunately, one of ours. This is IN-07, held by Julia Carson. She has suffered a multitude of health problems over the years and is currently undergoing inpatient treatment. She has missed most House votes and last year came close to losing to a little-known, under-funded repuke. If she retired, the chances of us losing the seat becomes minimal.