Reply #43: Loonie Watch

[TrogL]

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD
2007-11-12 Monday, November 12 1.06553 USD
2007-11-13 Tuesday, November 13 1.03745 USD
2007-11-14 Wednesday, November 14 1.0408 USD
2007-11-15 Thursday, November 15 1.01999 USD
2007-11-16 Friday, November 16 1.02807 USD
2007-11-19 Monday, November 19 1.01636 USD
2007-11-20 Tuesday, November 20 1.01543 USD
2007-11-21 Wednesday, November 21 1.01071 USD
2007-11-22 Thursday, November 22 1.01071 USD
2007-11-23 Friday, November 23 1.01143 USD
2007-11-26 Monday, November 26 1.01245 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0134 1.0138 1.0120 1.0127 +0.0017 +0.17% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0144 1.0144 1.0119 1.0132 -0.0012 -0.12%  
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0143 1.0143 1.0126 1.0128 -0.0020 -0.20% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0125 1.0130 1.0125 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0135 1.0135 1.0135 1.0135 -0.0013 -0.13% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0115 1.0115 1.0110 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007  0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.86225 +0.00495  +0.57%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.88150 0.88150 0.87600 0.87600 +0.00165  +0.19%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007   109.02  109.02  109.02  109.36 -0.84     -0.77%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007   1.6845  1.6845 1 .6845  1.6845 -0.0128   -0.75%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007   0.7185  0.7187  0.7185  0.7187 -0.0023   -0.32%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007   1.4666  1.4666  1.4666  1.4666 +0.0030   +0.20%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   160.33  160.33  160.33  160.33 +0.23     +0.14%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007  1.48320 1.48360 1.48320 1.48410 -0.00075  -0.05%  
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z07 Dec 2007  1.44620 1.46620 1.44620 1.48410 -0.00075  -0.05% 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 100.75. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 97.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.23 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 102.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.23 First support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 100.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 97.76


Analysis

Sorry I'm late. High level meetings all morning. Would you like my headache? I'm bored with it.

The bot's babbling nonsense. Its programming was never intended to deal with something like the mania two weeks ago. It's trying to chart "uncharted territory".

The loonie seems to be setting in nicely around US$1.01 which is probably about where it belongs. I've been calling for par but where it is would have nice psychological value and prevent any silly under/over par discussion based upon 4-digit percentage points.