Reply #104: I presume you are speaking of Netanyahu, but Likud is 3rd in the polls:

[Wordie]

This is from a survey taken on December 16 by Yedioth Ahronoth (Israel's leading newspaper) and Mina Tzemach...

Knesset seats, if the election were held today:
Kadima: 38 (down from 41 seats in an earlier survey)
Labor: 23 (a gain of two)
Likud: 11 (unchanged)
Shas: 10

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3185313,00.html

It looks like if Sharon is unable to recover, and Kadima disintegrates, it will be a question of which way its members will go, back to Likud, or to Labor, or some other party. I am hoping that since they left Likud in the first place, they would not return there. It would seem to me that even without a complete disintegration, there is likely to be some migration to other parties by some Kadima members, if Sharon is out of the picture.

Edit: Or, is there something in Israeli law that would prevent a re-alignment at this point in the campaign? Some deadline that would prevent the sort of re-alignment I hypothesized about.