Reply #30: Too add

[Lithos]

The type of scale of layoffs of a million or more per month would push the unemployment rate well above 10% very quickly. The loss of 533K jobs in November raised the unemployment to 6.7%. Current predictions are that unemployment will top out somewhere between 8 and 10%.

Economists predict the official rate will rise to at least 8% in 2009—and possibly as high as 10%. "The system is there; it just needs more money," says Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business.

(http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2008/db2008127_576014.htm)

The 8% expected figure is a total loss of an additional 2 million jobs and the upper end, worst case of 10% is 5 million. I personally expect it to be a little over 8%. Part of the reason I don't see it going much higher is that there are not that many jobs for companies to shed - the past 8 years saw some of the most anemic job growths ever so many companies are already working at the bone. What losses you will see will be the result of consolidations, resulting from the closure of business units or scaling back of capability (generally sales and manufacturing).

I'm not saying this is going to be easy, but that this is a complicated situation.