Reply #8: Depends

[Teaser]

on how things go with his insurrection.

The Best thing as-Sadr could do for his movement is to allow himself to be captured or killed.

Either event would shift the balance to the Sadrist movement and away from the clerical establishment at Najaf.

As it is, Sistani will keep the South of Iraq from open revolt. That will *never* be a problem for us as long as Sistani remains the dominant example for shiite muslims.

The thing about shi'ah islam is that it involves taking one person, usually an ayatollah, as your "example" who decides moral issues for you. You cede your responsibility to them.

Right now, in the south, as-Sistani is that example for most people. So it would take a major precipitating event for that perception to change. If the southern shi'ah see as-Sistani make a slip up, or if the new "government" fails to follow through on as-Sistani's recommendations, as-Sistani will likely suffer some kind of crisis of confidence in his status as "marjah al-taqlid", or "object of emulation."

Sadr may not be able to fulfill this role yet, because of his lack of advanced theological degrees. But a decrease in as-Sistani's stature will certainly increase as-SAdr's stature to some extent.