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In general, your theory is correct: in any species, there are always "outliers", genetic, geographical, or both.
But in the case of humans, an awful lot of the outliers are located in places that won't survive the catastrophe; they'll either be underwater or baked to a crisp in parching drought conditions. It may only be those Strangelovian folks down in the nuclear-powered mine shafts that survive.
The real question, to me, is how bad the wars will be when the excrement starts hitting the ventilator. I actually don't doubt that there will remain some places in this earth where humans could survive the coming changes, but remember, we still have nuclear weapons and there are still people ready to use them. In the end, *THAT* might be the factor that tips us into extinction.
Tesha
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