Reply #11: As an engineer (with a minor in econ) ....

[Coastie for Truth]

This dude is mixing apples with oranges and trying to get pineapples.

To a point - if you

--pay more to explore for oil in less and less hospitable (politically, geologically, logistically) places, and

--pay more and more to drill (with more advanced recovery methods, and a deeper and deeper depths), and

--pay more and more to refine (all petroleum is not the same - more cyclics, more heavy fractions, more sulfur, etc.)

There probably is more oil then the "Peakers" say --

And, with the economic model of "substitution" -- we can probably go to synfuels from coal, lignite, peat, tar sands, and we can probably play various biotech games to convert more natural products to fuels (lots of successful demonstration projects).

And with creative engineering (hybrids, more effective use of the "automotive data bus" to "optimize" the "drive train" ) we can probably go more miles per gallon.

My "bottom line" -- there are lots of "technological fixes" - but they are not cheap -- and they require American to do something Red Staters consider "Unamerican" --THINK GREEN :)

But that is not what the Bushies are saying -- they are saying we can just go in and take petroleum because we are Americans.

And Frum is speaking from a level of technical and scientific illiteracy that is beyond frightening. And, if he believes his own bull - that is even more frightening.

But, he is one of Perle's buddies, writes for National Review, and is a member of the Federalist Society. :(