Prediction: A Gephardt-Dean ticket

[jos]

Assuming Gephardt wins Iowa and Dean wins New Hampshire, I believe the nomination will come down to a Gephardt-Dean battle. Gephardt has a number of advantages in that battle. One, geography. The race may be decided in the south. Gephardt has a better chance of winning states like Texas than does Dean. This is where the wildcard comes in; that being, whether Graham or Edwards emerge as the "southern candidate." If they do, they could hold the balance of power. The other two advantages Gephardt has is labor support, and the likelihood that elected officials will flock to him as a way of "stopping" Dean.

Should Gephardt win out, Dean will still have a large number of delegates and a great deal of support, especially in the northeast and the west. In order to unify the party, and bring the Dean supporters enthusiastically on board, Gephardt will select Dean as his running mate. The fact that the two men are fond of one another doesn't hurt.