Reply #24: Lieberman

[Ediacara]

Lieberman will get a bitter pill when he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, and then loses South Carolina the next week. Lieberman won't just lose, he'll come in fourth or worse. He'll be the first out.

Kucinich, Mosely-Braun, and Sharpton will stay on until it's more than obvious that they won't get the nomination, or even come close. They may stay "in the running" until the convention a la Alan Keyes in 2000.

Edwards, Graham, and Clark (if he ever gets IN the race, that is) will wait until at least South Carolina, as they'll all try to gain a geographical advantage. Whoever among the three wins (or gets the most votes if he doesn't win) will stay on until Super Tuesday, the other two will drop out.

Gephardt is really in it to win, even though I doubt he will. He may win Iowa, and will definately place high even if he doesn't. He'll drop out soon after Super Tuesday though, as I don't see him gaining enough momentum.

Kerry and Dean will stay on until Super Tuesday, and one of these two guys will probably be the nominee. After Super Tuesday, I expect one of the two to drop out almost immediately, and hopefully will endorse the other guy. After Super Tuesday we need Kerry-Dean (as well as the rest of the party) unity more than ANYTHING.