Rall's Rule of Ideological Balance by Ted Rall

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RALL'S RULE OF IDEOLOGICAL BALANCE

Leftist or centrist? That's the big question facing Democrats in the run-up to next year's primaries. "The way to beat George Bush is not to be like him," declares former Vermont governor Howard Dean, whose feisty antiwar rhetoric has caught fire among liberals and made him the current frontrunner for the nomination. Seizing the centrist standard of the Clintonites, Senator Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) warns that a liberal standard-bearer like Dean "could lead the Democratic Party into the political wilderness for a long time to come. It could be, really, a ticket to nowhere."

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Try to imagine an ideological 50-yard line, a perfect middle-of-the-road position that represents the median of American political thinking at any given time. George W. Bush falls as far to the right of that line as any president in memory. Bill Clinton sat a little to the left of that line; FDR was about as far to the left as Bush is to the right. In modern history, challengers have been most likely to beat incumbent presidents or vice presidents when they seemed to reside the same distance from that 50-yard line as their opponent. If you're trying to unseat a moderate, swing voters are key. Your best bet is to run as one yourself. But moderates don't beat extremists--extremists do, by motivating their base.

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Reagan's 1980 defeat of Carter (right-winger beats moderate) is the only modern presidential election that doesn't validate the ideological-balance rule. In 1996, however, challenger Bob Dole failed to distance himself from Newt Gingrich's extremist "Republican Revolution" of 1994, came off as a right-winger, and lost to moderate Democrat Clinton. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis was far more left than the moderate Bush I of '88; Mondale's milquetoast moderation failed to attract sufficient angry liberal voters to counter Ronald Reagan (news - web sites)'s energized supporters in 1984.

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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=127&ncid=742&e=7&u=/030807/7/4x2xh.html


Very interesting article. I am agnostic regarding Rall's Rule, but it is certainly a different point of view from the DLC opinion that a liberal cannot win. Even more amusing is that for some (like the DLC), Dean is too liberal, while some see him as too conservative.

Can a liberal win? Obviously no one is right or wrong because it all depends on your point of view and the political climate of the moment. But Rall's perspective is very interesting and one to keep in mind.